The Mets had top-prospect Brandon Nimmo change his batting stance
coming into this season so he would have a better chance to pull the inside
pitch, and that is exactly what’s happened so far.
When
the 2014 season finished, Mets GM Sandy Alderson hinted that Brandon Nimmo could
start 2015 in Las Vegas, “depending on what our needs are,” but obviously he
went back to Binghamton instead. While he didn’t overwhelm AA last year – his
.238/.339/.396 was good for a 107 wRC+ – that slash line would look shinier
with something more than the .283 BABIP he put up. Still, the Mets had at least
a pair of good reasons for sending him back to AA to start the season that were
not performance related: he spent all offseason and spring training retooling
his swing and stance, and one of the coaches he worked most closely with is
the B-Mets hitting coach (Luis Natera); also, the PCL is a high scoring
environment that would inflate Nimmo’s stats, and Mets fans would be blue and
orange in the face from calling for his promotion by now had he started there,
which was not hard to foresee considering the Mets outfield situation. Nimmo
did a great job of spraying the ball between left and center field last year,
but he rarely pulled the ball in the air, so the Mets had him retool his swing
to become more of a complete hitter. As you’ll see, the work has helped him use
the whole field more, but he isn’t hitting for much power so far this year.
Since Nimmo missed a little time with a
knee injury this year, he’s just recently passed his PA total from 2014 with
the B-Mets, so this is a good time to compare his rate stats and spray charts,
which I have done in Table 1 and Figure 1 below.
Table 1 – Comparing Nimmo’s AA stats the past two seasons
PA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
BABIP
|
ISO
|
2B/3B/HR
|
OPS
|
|
2014 vs. L
|
109
|
22.0
|
13.8
|
.194
|
.087
|
3/1/1
|
.517
|
2015 vs. L
|
62
|
22.6
|
8.1
|
.381
|
.018
|
1/0/0
|
.658
|
2014 vs. R
|
170
|
17.6
|
12.4
|
.336
|
.202
|
9/3/5
|
.872
|
2015 vs. R
|
207
|
18.1
|
8.8
|
.329
|
.108
|
12/2/2
|
.723
|
2014 Totals
|
279
|
19.4
|
12.9
|
.283
|
.158
|
12/4/6
|
.735
|
2015 Totals
|
289
|
19.0
|
8.7
|
.337
|
.089
|
13/2/2
|
.709
|
 |
| Figure 1 – Comparing Nimmo’s AA spray charts the past two seasons, charts from MLBFarm |
As
you can see, other than a BABIP jump against lefties, Nimmo’s rate stats have
taken a step back this year. But while he rarely pulled balls in the air last
year, he’s been doing it with much more frequency this year – statcorner has him up to
a 56% pulled flyball rate this year, after only 36% last year. He obviously put
up better power numbers last year, but his approach led to a lot of fly ball
outs to left and center field. This year he’s hitting more line drives than fly
balls, which has led to a lot of singles pulled into RF (and a few doubles down
the RF line) and more BABIP than ISO. The approach has also led to a higher rate
of groundouts pulled to the right side, and he’s seen a small bump in pop up
rate early.
The
decreased power outage thus far is concerning, but we’re talking about the
first half of a season using a new swing/stance/approach, and while the
mechanical adjustments may be natural by now, the mental adjustments are
constant. Nimmo was comfortable hitting everything oppo taco last year, so he
could just crush anything left over the middle to left and center field. He’s
trying to do more this year, so those same pitches might be pulled instead.
It’s no guarantee, but as he gets more experience with this approach, he may be
comfortable smacking those pitches to LF again. Also, we don’t know what the
Mets are telling Nimmo to work on, and they could just be telling him to pull
those pitches for now.
In
addition to the power drop, Nimmo has seen his walk rate decrease considerably
this season, although his May stats skew the totals some – he had a 4.3 BB% in
May. He’s still comfortable taking pitches and shows a good eye, but he’s
looking to use the inside half more, so he’s been swinging more. His walk rate
is still slightly above average for now, but it’s worth keeping an eye on.
Moving
forward, it’s still possible Nimmo see’s Las Vegas (I’d be surprised if he
didn’t) or even Queens (if injuries get real bad) this year, but he still has
some work to do before he becomes a major league regular. One knock scouts have
always had for Nimmo is that he appears to lack a plan at the plate – for
example, this eyewitness
account calls him ‘overly passive’ – so will his new ability to use the
whole field can help him overcome that label? While he is using the whole field
more this year, I don’t think he’s found the right balance of when to pull or
go opposite field just yet, which is why we haven’t seen much power. The Mets
had him change his approach so that he’d be able to tap into his power to all
fields, so will his power start to show again? There might be more questions
surrounding Nimmo now than when the season started, but he’s still a 22-year
old in AA with interesting tools, and he’s still worthy of a Top-3 prospect spot
in the Mets system.
Nix & Hydra, two of Pluto's 5 moons, are revealed in a new @NASANewHorizons #PlutoFlyby image: http://t.co/5EoOhtTKu0 pic.twitter.com/H0HVu2vSpg
— NASA (@NASA) July 21, 2015
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