Mets Minors MiLB.tv Series Preview: Savannah Sand Gnats @ Greenville Drive

Dates: May 6-8

Current Record: 8-16, last place, 7.5 games back of Charleston

Probables

All times are EST

Wednesday at 7:05 PM

Corey Oswalt (2-0, 4.84 ERA, 2.30 FIP, 20.2 K%: 4 BB%, 0 HR/9)

@ Jeffry Fernandez (0-3, 4.91 ERA, 4.87 FIP, 16.1 K%: 8.6 BB%, 0.98 HR/9)

Thursday at 7:05 PM

Brad Wieck (0-3, 4.74 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 23.9 K%: 12.5 BB%, 0.47 HR/9)

@ Michael Kopech (1-2, 3.38 ERA, 3.56 FIP, 23 K%: 8.2 BB%, 0.56 HR/9)

Friday at 7:05 PM

Casey Meisner (1-1, 1.93 ERA, 3.60 FIP, 18.4 K%: 8.2 BB%, 0.39 HR/9)

@ Dedgar Jimenez (1-0, 3.60 ERA, 2.16 FIP, 21.7 K%: 4.4 BB%)

Last series for Mets

Lost 3 of 4: L 2-1, L 4-0, L 6-4, W 6-3

Top prospects for the Boston Red Sox with Greenville

Organizational rankings are from the 2015 Baseball America Prospect Handbook

Rafael Devers, 18, LHH 3B

Ranked #6, BA Grade: 60, Extreme risk

Some scouts have questioned whether Devers has a long-time future at 3B, but all agree on his ‘enormous ceiling as a potential middle-of-the-order fixture,’ which is impressive for an 18 year old getting his first taste of full-season ball. But Devers is off to a hot start for Greenville, with 7 XBH (5 2B, 2 HR) in just 20 games so far. BA says that he already has the power to hit the ball out to all fields, so I’m looking forward to what he can do. He comes into this series incredibly hot, with 8 hits over his last two games.

Michael Chavis, 19, RHH 3B/UT

Ranked #11, BA Grade: 55, High risk

            The Red Sox spent a lot of money to bring Chavis in at the end of the first round in 2014 because of his power potential and strong fielding background. He played SS in high school, but has been moved to 3B, and BA says, “If his bat develops, Chavis will profile at any position.” He hasn’t made much contact so far in the SAL – 23 SO in 79 PA, .203 AVG – but when he does connect, he puts a drive into the ball (4 2B, 3 HR). 

Javier Guerra, 19, LHH SS

Ranked #13, BA Grade: 55, Extreme risk

            Guerra has nice power for a middle infielder, but turns heads with his elite defense at SS. The knocks on Guerra are that his plate discipline could use some improvement (only 3.2 BB% against stateside competition), and he’s considered to have below-average speed. BA says that Red Sox officials believed ‘he could experience developmental leaps in the future,’ and so far he has backed up their beliefs, hitting .310/.342/.507 through 77 PA.

Michael Kopech, 19, RH SP

Ranked #14, BA Grade: 55, Extreme risk

            Kopech gets ranked so high for having one of the best fastballs in the system, as it tops out at 99 MPH, and was touching 97 MPH with regularity during his 2014 pro debut in the GCL. He also features a ‘wipeout slider,’ and showed potential using a changeup for the first time last summer. He starts against the Sand Gnats Thursday, and he could really take advantage of a mostly free-swinging lineup. He’s had two starts lasting 5 IP, allowing 0 R on 2 H and 0 BB in both starts, with 7 combined strikeouts. He has been knocked out of his other two starts early, so who knows what to expect.

Mauricio Dubon, 20, RHH 2B/SS

Ranked #23, BA Grade: 50, High risk

            Dubon makes the list because he’s a smooth fielding middle infielder with a nice line drive swing. It sounds like he is raw in terms of baseball experience, so he’s more of a project, but he has a solid foundation: average or better defense at the premium infield positions, doesn’t strikeout much, and potential leaps in upside as he gains experience. The negatives are that he hasn’t walked much yet, and BA suggests he needs to fill out some still. After a hot start, Dubon has cooled off some lately, although he’s stil 12-42 over his last 10 starts, which have been split 2: 1 between 2B and SS.

Nick Longhi, 19, RHH LF

Ranked #27, BA Grade: 50, Extreme risk

            Despite suggesting he’s limited to LF/1B, BA is high on Longhi due to a ‘sweet, righthanded swing… [with the potential to have] an above-average to plus hit tool.’ A thumb injury shortened his strong 2014 campaign in the NYPL, but Longhi is back to full health and his mashing ways. He has hit his first two professional homeruns this year, and has 9 total XBH (6 2B, 3B, 2 HR) and 7 walks against 14 strikeouts in his 21 games. 

Recent Injuries/Transactions

            Josh Smoker is back in minor league baseball, as he made his Savannah debut on April 29. He’s reportedly hitting 94-95 MPH with his heat again, and he has 4 K: 1 BB in his 3 IP. Smoker was a 1^st round pick of the Nationals in 2007, and made it as high as A+-ball, last pitching there in 2012. Eudor Garcia is in the lineup for Wednesday night, so he has been promoted. Pedro Perez has been demoted to Brooklyn. Darwin Frias and Ben Griset have been added to the Sand Gnats roster, Shane Bay and Cameron Griffin have been moved to the DL

Storylines

            The Sand Gnats have generally been one of the better teams in the SAL over the past few seasons, and have plenty of young talent on both sides of the ball this year, but they are off to a brutal start. Although they are middle of the pack in most offensive categories, the bats have been a bit streaky this year. The bigger issue has been getting consistent pitching from the starting rotation, as pitchers have often been done in by one bad stretch during their starts. The Savannah pitch staff is second to last in the SAL with a 4.20 ERA heading into this series, and if this Gnats team wants to turn it around, it will have to start there.

            I wasn’t too surprised when Eudor Garcia was held back for an extended spring training this year, as they did the same thing with Champ Stuart last year, but I am excited that his promotion coincides with some MiLB.tv coverage. He didn’t do anything to stand out during his pro debut, but he had a nice 14.2 K%: 7.1 BB% over his 226 PA, and didn’t struggle. Read more about him from someone who saw him in 2014 here.

            Casey Meisner pitching is becoming a storyline, as he is off to a great start for Savannah, and has the most upside of anyone on the talented staff. Wuilmer Becerra is still raw, but he has above average power, speed and defense in RF, which makes him the top OF prospect in the system behind Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo. Tomas Nido has been showing some pop and good skills behind the plate, which is making him look like an interesting catching prospect to keep an eye on. Luis Guillorme has been on a roll at the top of the lineup, and is among the league leaders in OBP.

League Leaders

Qualified only

Batting

R: John Mora, t-8^th (16),

H: J.C. Rodriguez, t-17^th (26)

2B: Wuilmer Becerra, t-8^th (7)

3B: J.C. Rodriguez, t-4^th (3)

HR: Wuilmer Becerra, t-12^th (3)

RBI: J.C. Rodriguez, t-14^th (13); John Mora, t-16^th (12); Wuilmer Becerra, t-16^th (12)

SB: Patrick Biondi, t-14^th (6)

AVG: Luis Guillorme, 14^th (.315)

OBP: Luis Guillorme, 7^th (.425); John Mora, 9^th (.402)

ISO: Wuilmer Becerra, 11^th (.222)

BB%: Luis Guillorme, t-5^th (15.7%); John Mora, 9^th (14.8%)

K%: Luis Guillorme, 14^th (13.5%); J.C. Rodriguez, 18^th (14.6%)

wRC+: John Mora, 19^th (135)

Pitching

IP: Josh Prevost, t-13^th (24); Casey Meisner, t-18^th (23.1); Martires Arias, t-18^th (23.1)

ER: Casey Meisner, 7^th (1.93)

FIP: Corey Oswalt, t-4^th (2.30); Josh Prevost, t-7^th (2.81)

K%: Corey Oswalt, 20^th (20.2%)

BB%: Corey Oswalt; t-11^th (4%)
14/49 qualified SAL pitchers have yet to allow a homerun, including Martires Arias, Corey Oswalt, and Josh Prevost

We captured a solar flare - seen in different wavelengths - that erupted Tues! http://t.co/HWCOSJkTpY @NASASunEarth pic.twitter.com/10LYa9kxmu

— NASA (@NASA) May 6, 2015