Reviewing the bullpen options for the Mets from the AA and AAA level –
a look at the Las Vegas 51s pen today, and I’ll try to have the B-Mets post up
by tomorrow.
After
many questions surrounding the pen coming into 2015, the Mets have had one of
the top bullpens in the major leagues this year – Fangraphs has the Mets
relievers at a 3.14 ERA after their series in Baltimore, which is 6th
in the majors – but they’ve been stumbling lately – they have a 4.34 ERA over
the last 30 days, which is 20th in the majors. Jenrry Mejia’s second
suspension was an unexpected blow, and while Bobby Parnell’s struggles were a
little more predictable – he struggled a lot in A+/AA before coming up, and he
didn’t have his normal upper-90’s velocity – the Mets still ran him out there
for 23 appearances (19.1 IP).
Fortunately, Logan Verrett has
returned in place of Parnell, which is not something I would have imagined
typing back in March (when Verrett wasn’t even on the Mets), but he was great during
his first stint with the Mets this year, and he’s been strong in Las Vegas
since. The Mets are getting further good news for the pitching staff down in
AA, where Erik Goeddel has looked great during his 2 appearances (GIF’s from
8/16 here,
details from 8/19 here),
topping out at 94 MPH with his heater on Wednesday night. Also, down in Port
St. Lucie Rafael Montero and Steven Matz are in various states of rehab, and at
least Matz is expected to return this year.
While
Verrett and Goeddel should help boost the pen in the short term, the Mets will
look to add reinforcements once the rosters expand in September, and may wish
to look internally for a lefty option in the mean time if Eric O’Flaherty
proves unreliable. I reviewed the seasons and stuff of the internal left-handed bullpen
options from the Las Vegas 51s below (righties here), and I also give my opinion as to whether
they would be a good fit for the Mets in September.
AA: 32 G, 3.19 ERA, 3.14 FIP, 31 IP, 21 H, 43 K: 14 BB, 3
HBP, 2 HR, .590 OPS, 11% Swinging strike rate
AAA: 10 G, 1.08 ERA, 1.45 FIP, 8.1 IP, 3 H, 15 K: 2 BB, 2
HBP, .401 OPS, 18% Swinging strike rate
If
you looked at Dario Alvarez’s numbers earlier in the season with Binghamton,
you might’ve been unimpressed by his high ERA, which was inflated for a while
after allowed 7 ER over his first 4 IP. But then Alvarez converted 8 straight
scoreless appearances, and shortly thereafter he started a streak of 15
straight scoreless appearances to finish his B-Mets career. That streak would
reach 22 straight scoreless appearances after he joined the 51s, and he’s
allowed just the 1 ER so far. He’s absolutely owned lefties this year - .407
OPS, 44.9 K%: 6.4 BB% vs. LHB for the season – and he’s been pretty effective
against righties too - .699 OPS, 27.4 K%: 11.9 BB%. His sweeping slider
consistently makes lefties look bad, and he’s been sitting low-90’s with his
heat this season, even hitting 95 MPH on the Las Vegas scoreboard a few times.
I
don’t think it’s a question of if the Mets are going to call up Dario Alvarez
at this point, but when. After a below average season with Oakland, Eric
O’Flaherty did not get off to the best start with the Mets, and considering
they gave up so little to get him, he probably has a short leash. Alvarez can
come up in September regardless of what the Mets do with O’Flaherty, but his
status might effect whether Alvarez is eligible for the playoffs.
AA: 22 G, 5.06 ERA, 4.03 FIP, 26.2 IP, 24 H, 29 K: 18 BB, 4
HBP, HR, .713 OPS, 13% Swinging strike rate
AAA: 25 G, 1.69 ERA, 4.17 FIP, 26.2 IP, 19 H, 21 K: 18 BB,
HBP, .605 OPS, 8% Swinging strike rate
That
shiny ERA in AAA appears to be pretty deceiving, and it is aided by 5 unearned
runs on his record, so don’t go ordering any Chase Huchingson shirseys just
yet. He’s an interesting side-arming lefty, but there is no reason to think those
high walk rates will translate, and it’s not like he’s putting up big LOOGY
numbers. He’ll likely be back in the Mets organization next year, so hopefully
Warthen, Viola & co. can help him improve in that area during Spring
Training, because he gets batters out when he’s not walking them: .624 OPS
allowed vs. RHB in 141 PA this year despite a 13.5 BB%, and a .716 OPS allowed
vs. LHB in 96 PA this year despite a 17.7 BB%.
48 G, 1.87 ERA, 4.21 FIP, 33.2 IP, 21 H, 37 K: 26 BB, .595
OPS, 16% Swinging strike rate
If
the Mets considered Scott Rice a real option, he would probably be in the big
leagues by now. His season boils down to 3 numbers in my opinion, 33.2 IP over
48 appearances with 26 walks. That’s an 18.3 BB%, and more than half (26 of 48)
of his appearances lasting less than a full inning. He had a stretch of 14
appearances during which he threw just 6 innings, and he had a 5 K: 7 BB ratio
during that stretch. Also, he’s lasted more than 1 inning in just 6 appearances this
year. He hasn't had his normal LOOGY splits this year, and he's not even reliable for a full inning, so he offers very little, which is not the type of pitcher you can afford to carry in the majors.
Those splits are the reverse of his
major league career numbers – he couldn’t get righties out in the majors,
allowing a 1.002 OPS in 89 PA – but while that may suggest a real improvement
against righties, he’s done nothing else to earn a major league spot this year.
That shiny ERA is less impressive when you consider that he’s been brought into
the middle of the inning most of the time, and taken out before he can let
things get out of hand.
I
don’t have anything new to add about Alex Torres, but he is a real option, so
it seemed appropriate to include him. He’s made 3 appearances for Las Vegas so
far, so it’s not like he’s a different pitcher than he was for 38 appearances
with the Mets. If he didn’t walk the ballpark, he could be an interesting
relief pitcher, but he allowed as many walks as hits with the Mets this year
(26), and I doubt they give him another major league chance in 2015.
#OTD in 1996, Shuttle Atlantis begins 2nd journey to Launch Pad 39A to prepare for STS-79
http://t.co/7lT6eTr5ys pic.twitter.com/OTl2elBzXC
— NASA History Office (@NASAhistory) August 20, 2015
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