Reviewing the bullpen options for the Mets from the AA and AAA level –
a look at the Las Vegas 51s pen today, and I’ll try to have the B-Mets post up
by tomorrow.
After
many questions surrounding the pen coming into 2015, the Mets have had one of
the top bullpens in the major leagues this year – Fangraphs has the Mets
relievers at a 3.14 ERA after their series in Baltimore, which is 6th
in the majors – but they’ve been stumbling lately – they have a 4.34 ERA over
the last 30 days, which is 20th in the majors. Jenrry Mejia’s second
suspension was an unexpected blow, and while Bobby Parnell’s struggles were a
little more predictable – he struggled a lot in A+/AA before coming up, and he
didn’t have his normal upper-90’s velocity – the Mets still ran him out there
for 23 appearances (19.1 IP).
Fortunately, Logan Verrett has
returned in place of Parnell, which is not something I would have imagined
typing back in March (when Verrett wasn’t even on the Mets), but he was great during
his first stint with the Mets this year, and he’s been strong in Las Vegas
since. The Mets are getting further good news for the pitching staff down in
AA, where Erik Goeddel has looked great during his 2 appearances (GIF’s from
8/16 here,
details from 8/19 here),
topping out at 94 MPH with his heater on Wednesday night. Also, down in Port
St. Lucie Rafael Montero and Steven Matz are in various states of rehab, and at
least Matz is expected to return this year.
While
Verrett and Goeddel should help boost the pen in the short term, the Mets will
look to add reinforcements once the rosters expand in September, and may wish
to look internally for a lefty option in the mean time if Eric O’Flaherty
proves unreliable. I reviewed the seasons and stuff of the right-handed internal bullpen
options from the Las Vegas 51s below, and I also give my opinion as to whether
they would be a good fit for the Mets in September.
23 G, 7.20 ERA, 6.09 FIP, 20 IP, 22 H, 20 K: 17 BB, 3 HR,
.896 OPS, 57% Strikes, 9% Swinging strike rate (Las Vegas stats only)
Walks
have always been the problem for Black, especially when pitching with Las
Vegas, but he’s been getting better results over the past month – 13 G, 11.1
IP, 2.38 ERA, .712 OPS allowed since 7/17. He had a much higher walk rate
before his promotion to the Mets last year, and then went on to have a nice
season at the major league level, although his 3.77 FIP was not as shiny as his
2.60 ERA. Surprisingly, Black has struggled against RHB this year, allowing a
1.000 OPS over 88 PA (LHB have a .620 OPS against Black in 52 PA), but that
number is boosted by a .382 BABIP. In 2014, he held RHB’s to a .574 OPS in 128
PA between AAA and the majors (LHB had a combined .696 OPS in 102 PA against
Black), which is more in line with his minor league history.
Since he’s on the 40-man roster, I
expect Black will pitch for the Mets this season, but poor results and a high
walk rate in Las Vegas haven’t been the only things keeping him from the major
league pen to this point, he’s also yet to prove that he can pitch with success
on consecutive days. For the season, he’s pitched on consecutive days just 4
times (3 since joining Las Vegas), and he’s recorded 0 outs during 2 of those
appearances, including his most recent chance on 8/17. But that won’t matter
once rosters expand and the Mets can have extra arms in the pen, so it’s very
possible he’s up as soon as September 1st. He’s been consistently in
the mid/upper 90’s lately, and his breaking stuff has been there all season, so
he should help the Mets in September, even if he’s not ready to go on
consecutive days.
47 G, 4.02 ERA, 3.38 FIP, 56 IP, 76 H, 42 K: 12 BB, 3 HBP, 2
HR, .789 OPS, 12% Swinging strike rate
Bradford
has maintained a low walk rate at AAA (3.6%), but his below average strikeout
rate has been less than encouraging (18.3%) – he does have an above average 12%
swinging strike rate the past two seasons. After allowing 0 ER over his first
14 IP this year, Bradford has allowed 30 R (25 ER) over his past 41 IP, which
is good for a 5.49 ERA, and PCL batters have an .875 OPS against him during
that time. While he’s allowed a very high number of hits this year, PCL batters
have a unsustainably high .422 BABIP against Bradford over his last 41 IP, so
he’s been unusually unlucky during this stretch – PCL batters have a slightly
below average .122 ISO against Bradford during the stretch, so they aren’t
consistently crushing the ball against him.
Before he started struggling, it
looked like Bradford would be one of the first AAA pen options to get a look
from the Mets this year, but now it looks unlikely that he’ll even get a
September look. He has an average 93-94 MPH fastball, and a nice changeup, with
good control of both, so he could still be interesting next season, but he’s
not forcing his way up right now, and the Mets already have some tough 40-man
roster decisions ahead.
50 G, 4.40 ERA, 61.1 IP, 60 H, 35 K: 14 BB, 7 HBP, 6 HR,
.721 OPS, 11% Swinging strike rate
Church
was the Mets 23rd round pick from the 2009 draft, so he’s been a
Mets farmhand for a long time, and is eligible to be a minor league free agent
this offseason. He’s arguably been the most consistent reliever for Las Vegas
this year, but he’s not going to force his way into the conversation. He
features a fringe-average fastball, but his bread-and-butter pitch is the
slider, and he has good control of both pitches. When that slider is working,
he’ll induce a lot of weak contact, but it has not been a reliable out pitch at
the AAA level. He did strike out more than 27% of batters faced across two
seasons at AA with the B-Mets (2013-14), and he’s only 28 this year, so he’ll likely be back in a AAA bullpen
somewhere next year.
If the Mets were to reward Church
for all of his hard work within the system with a September call-up, it would
surely make for a nice feel-good story, especially if he was there for the
clincher. But while I’d root for that outcome in any of the 5 previous seasons,
the Mets are hunting for the postseason as of now, and the Mets have better
options than Church.
10 GS, 5.87 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 61.1 IP, 81 H, 42 K: 16 BB, 5 HR,
.833 OPS, 9% Swinging strike rate
Dillon
Gee is still the same pitcher that he’s always been, which makes him the most
accomplished pitcher on this list, and probably the best righty option not on
the 40-man roster. After struggling over his first 2 starts with Las Vegas, he
held the PCL to a 2.95 ERA during his next 6 starts (42.2 IP, .694 OPS allowed),
but has struggled again for his last 2 starts. He has been hampered by a high
BABIP allowed during the 2 months he’s struggled the most this season (June:
.469 BABIP, 13.02 ERA; August: .394 BABIP, 6.87 ERA), so there’s that.
His
current roster status suggests that we probably won’t see Gee with the Mets
again this year, but if they need innings from someone not on the 40-man roster,
he’s the safe option.
46 G, 4.55 ERA, 4.05 FIP, 61.1 IP, 61 H, 64 K: 24 BB, 2 HBP,
6 HR, .715 OPS, 10% Swinging strike rate
Already
in his age-28 season, Satterwhite is another potential minor league free agent,
but I think he’s the most interesting reliever in the 51s current bullpen. He
throws a mid-90’s fastball that will top out at 96 MPH, although he’s been
sitting more 94 MPH with Las Vegas (per radio/MiLB.tv broadcasts), and mixes in
a hard splitter and hard slider. He allowed a 6.65 ERA as he adjusted to the
PCL over the first 2 months, but has held opponents to a 3.29 ERA over his last
27 appearances (38.1 IP), with a .660 OPS allowed and a 27 K%: 10 BB% during
that span. Wally has used him for more than one inning in more than 40% of his
appearances this year, so Satterwhite is used to getting up and down multiple
times throughout the game, which is useful in Terry’s pen.
Satterwhite
is probably the most interesting right-handed options not on the Mets 40-man
roster, but I’m guessing his inexperience has him behind Gee and Stauffer on
the team’s relief depth chart.
4 G, 2.15 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 29.1 IP, 18 H, 22 K: 6 BB, 3 HBP, 2
HR, .508 OPS, 15% Swinging strike rate
Stauffer
is the most accomplished reliever on this list, and he was good in the majors
as recently as 2014 – 3.02 FIP, 24.5 K% over 64.1 IP - but he struggled with the
Twins earlier this year. He’s off to a nice start with Las Vegas, but his high
FIP and .203 BABIP against suggest he’s been more lucky than great – he did
have 11 K’s over 8 IP in his last start, after just 11 K’s total over his first
3 starts (21.1 IP).
Just like Gee, Stauffer could give
the Mets a spot starter or right-handed relief option if they need someone no
on the 40-man roster in September. If it came down to a decision between the
two, the Mets might just choose the pitcher with a better finish to the PCL
season.
53 G, 3.88 ERA, 3.61 FIP, 53.1 IP, 48 H, 46 K: 21 BB, HBP, 2
HR, .629 OPS, 8% Swinging strike rate
Thornton
got off to a hot start back in Spring Training after a few pen sessions with
Dan Warthen, but that magic ran out only a week into the season, or so it
seemed. After allowing 6 ER over 3 appearances in mid-April, Thornton would
allow just 3 R (2 ER) over the next 6 weeks, holding opponents to a .366 OPS
over 17 appearances (16.1 IP). He hit another rough patch in early June,
allowing 7 ER over 4 appearances, but then held opponents to a 1.57 ERA and
.534 OPS over his next 24 appearances (23 IP) before Wednesday night. He’s had
a pair of rough stretches, but he’s mostly just been a lockdown reliever for
the 51s this year. When he’s on, he has good control of his sinker and slider,
and he’ll induce a high rate of groundballs by attacking the bottom of the
zone.
Thornton
is rule 5 eligible again this offseason, but he’s basically a lock to be back
in the Mets system next year (assuming they want to bring him back), and he’ll
still be battling to make his major league debut. He can help a major league
team as a middle reliever/first guy up from AAA when injury strikes, but the
Mets have better options for the rest of this season, and there’s no clear path
to the majors for him anyway.
Working all the angles. Took this #selfie while investigating an area with hydrated minerals http://t.co/TASSOdAprc pic.twitter.com/iTNX6Xm8LM
— Curiosity Rover (@MarsCuriosity) August 19, 2015
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