Breaking down the matchup for the Rumble Ponies first playoff series
 |
| Rumble Ponies in the Playoffs? #LetsRumble |
Starting
tonight, the top-two teams in the Eastern League will square off in the opening
round of the Eastern League playoffs. As if that wasn’t enough of a reason to
watch, local fans have the added draw of bragging rights on the line, because
this is the Double-A version of the Subway Series: Yankees prospects vs. Mets
prospects. And the cherry on top for baseball fans came when the Yankees
announced they were sending a pair of major league rehabber’s – Clint Frazier
and Garrett Cooper – to the Trenton squad for at least the beginning of the
series.
Below
I review how these two teams made it to the Eastern League playoffs, how they
matchup statistically, and the starting pitching matchups announced so far for this series.
How the Thunder got here
At
92-48, the Thunder made the playoffs with one of the best records in pro
baseball this year. Every Major League team would be happy to finish a season with Trenton’s
franchise-best 92 wins this year, and the Thunder reached that total in just
140 games. Considering the turnover in the Yankees system throughout the year,
especially at the Double-A level – check out the final page of their game
notes for all 208 transactions (!) made this year – the Thunder’s record is
that much more impressive.
Looking
at the numbers, there are two obvious reasons for the team’s success: great
pitching and the benefit of 47 games combined against Portland (21), New
Hampshire (19), and Bowie (7). Trenton’s 2.84 team ERA is better than the
league’s average 4.03 ERA by more than a run, and the team went 37-10 in those
47 games. Sure, they went a still impressive 55-38 against the rest of the
league, but that pace would’ve left them in second place with 83 wins. Getting
back to the first point, the Ponies were the only other team with an ERA under
3.67 in the EL this year, and the league average ERA jumps more than a tenth if
you don’t include the Thunder’s stats.
As
far as workload is concerned, the Thunder pitching staff has been led by Justus
Sheffield (93.1 IP) and Cale Coshow (41 G, 54.1 IP) – Yefry Ramirez had led the
team in IP before his trade. Coshow was promoted to Scranton at the end of the
season, which leaves Colten Brewer as the most experienced reliever on the
squad. Overall, the Thunder have had 21 different pitchers throw at least 25 IP
this year, so you can’t really point to one player alone being the difference.
That said, Ronald Herrera did go 8-0 in 9 starts,with a 1.13 ERA over 56 IP.
While
pitching has been the anchor for this team, the offense has been no slouch
either. Thairo Estrada (.745 OPS over 495 AB and a Postseason
All-Star) and Zack Zehner (.764 OPS over 431 AB) have been the regulars in
the lineup, but Trenton has had some of the top talents in the minors playing
for them this year: Gleyber Torres spent 32 games here before his promotion and
injury, Jorge Mateo spent 30 games before his trade, and Miguel Andujar spent
67 games here before his promotions. Additionally, Jhalan Jackson joined the squad
on 7/1 and he’s posted a 0.906 OPS in 29 games with Trenton. This Trenton team is patient, doesn't strikeout a lot, and has good extra base hit potential, although they haven't big homerun threats this year. Of course, they didn't have Clint Frazier and Garrett Cooper in the lineup all year either.
How the Rumble Ponies got here
At
85-54, the Rumble Ponies made the playoffs with the second best record in the
league and a comfortable lead over third place. The Ponies didn’t spend the
entire season in second place, as Reading charged ahead of them briefly
mid-season, but they finished the season with a run that should have Trenton
trembling. After finishing July on a 7-2 run, Binghamton’s 23 wins in August
was best in the EL (and one shy of tying a franchise record for a month), and then they went 3-0 in September. All together, that’s a 33-11 streak to finish the
season, which is good for a .750 winning percentage! The only team Binghamton
didn’t finish the season with a better than .500 record against is Trenton, as
the two teams split six games, but they have a chance to remedy that this
series.
The
Rumble Ponies are the modern version of “Pitching and Defense wins
championships.” The Ponies finished second in the EL with a 3.20 team ERA, but
while the team had some strong starting pitching throughout the year
(especially from Corey Oswalt), the bullpen really stood out. The Ponies pen combined
for a ridiculous 2.81 ERA over 388 IP this year, with just 333 H allowed and a
very good 380 K: 132 BB ratio. The pen’s performance actually improved
considerably down the stretch too, after the midseason additions of
flamethrowers Tyler Bashlor, Drew Smith, and (eventually) Adonis Uceta: 1.65
ERA over 92.2 IP, with 70 H allowed and a 97 K: 27 BB ratio over the final
month.*
As for the defense, errors aren’t
everything, but Table 3 below shows just how efficient the Ponies were at
making outs, and the Ponies feature several players known for their defense at
key up the middle positions. Luis Guillorme’s defense reputation has only grown
this year while splitting time between SS and 2B, and he was arguably the team
MVP for Binghamton. The Ponies coaches gave that award to David Thompson, who finished
just percentage points behind Josh Fuentes for best fielding percentage at
third base, as he committed just 12 errors in 129 games while making several
huge plays at the hot corner. Tomas Nido has been getting great reviews for his
defense behind the plate again this year, and he threw out an impressive 45% of
potential base stealers for Binghamton. Binghamton had Juan Lagares (7 games),
Champ Stuart or Patrick Biondi (both are plus runners and defenders) play center field in all
but one game this year, and often had two of those three patrolling the outfield.
Guilorme’s double play partner was most commonly Gustavo Nunez, a 29-year old
roaming middle infielder who did a good job providing consistent defense. Not
to be forgotten, backup catcher Colton Plaia was having another strong year behind the plate before going down with an injury, L.J. Mazzilli made some sparkling plays at second base and
while playing right field for the first time in his pro career, Kevin
Kaczmarski was the Ponies Iron Man in the OF and also came up with some huge
catches, and finally Matt Oberste was as reliable at first base as he’s ever
been, finishing the year with a .997 fielding percentage while playing a career-high 103 games in the field (previous high was 70 in 2016).
While
the Ponies may have the modern pitching and defense game down pat, Binghamton’s
offense is from a different era. The team lacks power – see all the power
rankings in Table 1 below – as several guys are more interested in slashing the
ball the other way to get on than selling out for power. David Thompson put
together a nice homer binge at the end of the season to push his total to 16,
and both he and Matt Oberste have been top-10 in doubles most of the season,
but the rest of the lineup lacks a consistent punch. Tomas Nido was close to the average, but only Thompson finished with an above EL average ISO. The good news for
Binghamton in this respect is that Peter Alonso was promoted for the final two
weeks and appears to have quickly adjusted to the league.
The lineup did excel in one area
though: controlling the strike zone. They led the league in walks drawn and
struck out less than any other team. Champ Stuart struck out in nearly 1/3 of
his PA, but Matt Oberste had the second highest strikeout rate among ‘regulars’
(150+ PA), and his 20.5% K-rate was barely above the EL average of 19.7%.
Additionally, eight of those eleven ‘regulars’ had a BB/PA-rate above 10%, and
both Luis Guillorme and Kevin Taylor finished the year with more walks than
strikeouts.
How the two teams matchup
Table 1 – Offensive team ranks
Trenton
|
Statistic (EL
Average)
|
Binghamton
|
659 (2)
|
R
|
582 (9)
|
4.71 (2)
|
R/G (4.32)
|
4.19 (8)
|
1202 (t-4)
|
H
|
1159 (8)
|
237 (5)
|
2B
|
222 (11)
|
44 (1)
|
3B
|
20 (11)
|
103 (8)
|
HR
|
66 (12)
|
492 (2)
|
BB
|
503 (1)
|
935 (3)
|
K
|
918 (1)
|
79 (8)
|
SB
|
111 (2)
|
.264 (t-2)
|
AVG (.259)
|
.260 (6)
|
.339 (2)
|
OBP (.330)
|
.337 (3)
|
.403 (6)
|
SLG (.397)
|
.363 (12)
|
.741 (4)
|
OPS (.727)
|
.700 (t-10)
|
28 (11)
|
Sac Bunts
|
35 (5)
|
48 (3)
|
Sac Flies
|
47 (4)
|
111 (4)
|
GIDP
|
110 (5)
|
Table 2 – Pitching team ranks
Thunder
|
Statistic (EL
Average)
|
Rumble Ponies
|
1211.1 (4)
|
IP
|
1176.2 (10)
|
2.83 (1)
|
ERA (4.03)
|
3.20 (2)
|
20 (t-1)
|
Shutouts
|
20 (t-1)
|
47 (1)
|
Saves
|
41 (3)
|
1057 (1)
|
H
|
1079 (2)
|
92 (3)
|
HR
|
86 (2)
|
1160 (1)
|
K
|
990 (7)
|
429 (5)
|
BB
|
365 (1)
|
2.70 (3)
|
K/BB (2.26)
|
2.71 (2)
|
1.23 (t-1)
|
WHIP (1.37)
|
1.23 (t-1)
|
53 (7)
|
HBP
|
31 (1)
|
50 (2)
|
Wild Pitches
|
53 (4)
|
Table 3 – Defensive team ranks
Trenton
|
Statistic (EL
Average)
|
Binghamton
|
116 (t-8)
|
Errors (109)
|
68 (1)
|
.977 (t-7)
|
Fielding Percentage
|
.986 (1)
|
77 (5)
|
Stolen Bases
Allowed (84)
|
58 (1)
|
38% (t-4)
|
CS%
|
42% (3)
|
7 (1)
|
Passed balls
|
23 (12)
|
The matchups
In Binghamton
Game One
Wednesday at 6:35 PM
RHP Dillon Tate (1-2,
3.24 ERA) @ RHP Corey Oswalt (12-5, 2.28 ERA)
Game one features a matchup of the EL Pitcher of the Year,
Corey Oswalt, and the fourth overall pick from the 2015 draft, Dillon Tate.
-
The Yankees acquired Tate in the Carlos Beltran
trade last year and he has elite velocity (96+ MPH fastballs), as well as a
nasty slider and developing changeup. He joined Trenton in August and was solid
over his first four starts, but he did walk four batters in two of those
appearances, and this Ponies lineup is capable of wearing pitchers out that
way.
-
After two starts to adjust to Double-A, Oswalt
was consistent all season, allowing more than three runs in just two of his
final 22 starts, and more than two runs in just six of those starts. After
starting the All-Star game, Oswalt posted a 1.53 ERA in the second half while
holding the EL to a .591 OPS. His ~22% K-rate for the season doesn’t stand out,
but he struck out ~27% of batters faced over his final seven starts and
improved his walk rate during that stretch.
Game Two
Thursday at 6:35 PM
RHP Brady Koerner
(6-3, 4.08 ERA) @ RHP Ricky Knapp (1-0, 2.00 ERA)
Game two features a matchup of two guys who went opposite
directions this.
-
The Yankees drafted former Clemson standout
Brody Koerner in the 17th round back in 2015. He started this season
on the DL and then spent a month in the FSL before joining Trenton. He combined
for 13.1 scoreless innings over his first two Double-A starts, but his starts
were 50/50 good/not good after that.
-
Knapp started his year in Triple-A and struggled
with big innings in the first half. He appeared to be adjusting to the league
in the second half, but then the Mets unexpectedly added him to the Rumble
Ponies rotation in August (not long after moving P.J. Conlon to the pen). He’s
excelled in three of his four Double-A starts this year, and he’s capable of
going deep into games if the Ponies give him a lead.
In Trenton
Game Three
Friday at 7:00 PM
LHP Justus Sheffield
(7-5, 3.18 ERA) vs. RHP Marcos Molina (3-7, 3.67 ERA)
Game three features a matchup of two pitchers who initially became prospects of note in 2014.
-
The Yankees acquired Justus Sheffield last year
in the Andrew Miller trade, but he was one of the Indians first round picks in
2014 (taken 31st overall). Sheffield has had a very strong season
for Trenton, but he did miss six weeks with an injury and this will be just his
fourth appearance back off the DL (and two were in the GCL), so even if he’s
going well the Thunder will likely need to rely on their bullpen a lot in this
game.
-
After signing with the Mets in 2012, Marcos
Molina burst onto the scene in 2014 as one of the top pitchers in the NYPL. Injuries
derailed his 2015-16 seasons, but Molina is once again emerging as one of the
top pitching prospects in the Mets system. His velocity has been creeping back
towards the pre-injury days, and he can still make hitters look batter with an
assortment of sliders and cutters.
Game Four (if necessary)
Saturday at 7:00 PM
No starters announced
Game Five (if necessary)
Sunday at 5:00 PM
No starters announced
One pitcher of note not listed among the starters is P.J.
Conlon, which means he’s likely slated to keep pitching out of Binghamton’s pen
this week. It’s possible he’s first in line for a long-man outing, if needed. Knuckleballer Mickey Jannis could also be given that role, but he’s likely on deck as the
potential game four starter after his strong season. If it goes to five games,
the Ponies will likely send Casey Delgado out there on a short leash. Delgado
has had some of his best Double-A starts down the stretch, and he held the EL
to a 3.64 ERA over his final 94 IP this year, but walks can become a slippery slope for
him, and it will be the final game of the season.
Keep your #eclipse glasses, and you may be able to see the Sun's 'freckles' at some point! https://t.co/D51EqY8uEz pic.twitter.com/HADDTOUlX5— NASA Sun & Space (@NASASun) September 6, 2017
Leave your comment
Post a Comment