The Nationals are the favorite pick to win the NL East, but there
should be a real race between the top 3 teams in the division. Comparing the 3
teams starters in a position-by-position breakdown.
The
NL East is an interesting division this year, as there should be 3 teams
fighting at the top of the division standings and for a playoff spot, and 2
teams fighting for last place in the major league standings. The division could
end up with 3 playoff teams and the top 2 picks in the 2016 draft. The Mets,
Marlins and Nationals will each get 38 games against the Braves and Phillies
this season (more than 20% of the seasons total games), so they will have
plenty of opportunities to boost their records beating up on inferior talent. Of
course, the Mets, Marlins and Nationals will be battling each other just as
often, so the final NL East standing will likely come down to how these teams
do against each other. For this comparison, I will use 2015 Fangraphs depth chart projections.
C
Team
|
Player
|
PA
|
Slash
|
wRC+
|
fWAR
|
Mets
|
480
|
.257/.293/.434
|
112
|
2.5
|
|
Marlins
|
Jarrod
Saltalamacchia
|
448
|
.228/.305/.390
|
94
|
1.4
|
Nationals
|
Wilson Ramos
|
448
|
.268/.314/.439
|
109
|
2.9
|
Considering
we’re dealing with projections, it makes sense to start this 3-team comparison
looking at those players who don the tools of ignorance. Since the league
average catcher had a 94 wRC+ in 2014, all 3 teams are likely to get at least
average offense from the position. The Mets have the edge by wRC+, and we all
know TdA is one of the best pitch framers in the league, but the rest of his
defensive game gets knocked, so he takes a hit in fWAR. Since fWAR doesn’t
consider pitch framing yet, it’s likely undervaluing TdA’s contribution a
little.
Rank: Push
between TdA and Ramos, Salty 3rd
1B
Team
|
Player
|
PA
|
Slash
|
wRC+
|
fWAR
|
Mets
|
630
|
.247/.342/.450
|
126
|
2.8
|
|
Marlins
|
Michael Morse
|
490
|
.261/.314/.438
|
109
|
0.7
|
Nationals
|
Ryan Zimmerman
|
560
|
.275/.342/.449
|
121
|
2.8
|
The
league average first baseman had a 112 wRC+ in 2014, so while Morse was lauded
as a good pickup, he projects to provide less than average offense and defense
where the Marlins plan to use him. He’s outhit this wRC+ projection in 3 of the
past 4 seasons though, so it’s likely the projections underrate him. At 136
wRC+, Duda had the 6th best wRC+ among qualified first baseman in
2014, so the Mets could really use him repeating his performance this year.
When healthy over the past 4 seasons, Zimmerman has produced at about the level
projected for him, so the Nationals just need him to stay on the field this
year. Considering recent seasons, Duda and Morse would seem more likely to
outperform their projections than Zimmerman.
Rank: Push
between Duda and Zimmerman, and then Morse
2B
Team
|
Player
|
PA
|
Slash
|
wRC+
|
fWAR
|
Mets
|
560
|
.282/.321/.398
|
105
|
1.6
|
|
Marlins
|
Dee Gordon
|
560
|
.269/.315/.346
|
85
|
1.3
|
Nationals
|
Yunel Escobar
|
574
|
.269/.330/.365
|
96
|
1.0
|
At
first glance, the Murphy projections seems low, but it’s not that far below the
2.1 fWAR/600 PA he has averaged the past 3 seasons, and he’s provided a wRC+
between 103 and 110 over that time. Still, he’s got the strongest reputation at
2B among the 3, as he’s got the best bat of the 3. The other two may be better
defenders, but Dee Gordon has stunk
offensively outside of the first month of 2014, and Yunel Escobar’s
production has been trending down the past few seasons. The average 2B hit to a
92 wRC+ in 2014, so the Mets and Nationals should have better than average
production for the position. Considering his strong defense and at least
average production offensively for the position, I’d actually expect Yunel to
outperform these projections this year.
Rank: Murphy,
Escobar, Gordon
3B
Team
|
Player
|
PA
|
Slash
|
wRC+
|
fWAR
|
Mets
|
560
|
.275/.346/.425
|
120
|
3.7
|
|
Marlins
|
Martin Prado
|
630
|
.277/.326/.396
|
102
|
2.5
|
Nationals
|
Anthony Rendon
|
609
|
.278/.347/.459
|
126
|
3.8
|
The
Mets and Nationals continue to match up pretty well on the infield, as Wright
and Rendon project to provide very similar production from 3B. As a league
average hitter who can play multiple positions, Prado is a solid piece for the
Marlins roster, but he’s matched up against 2 heavyweights. Rendon and Wright
are trending in opposite directions, but Wright’s not too old to have a bounce
back season, and Rendon will start the season on the DL.
Rank: Push
between Wright and Rendon, and then Prado
SS
Team
|
Player
|
PA
|
Slash
|
wRC+
|
fWAR
|
Mets
|
555
|
.257/.293/.413
|
100
|
1.9
|
|
Marlins
|
Adeiny Hechavarria
|
630
|
.253/.291/.342
|
74
|
0.3
|
Nationals
|
Ian Desmond
|
630
|
.263/.315/.430
|
108
|
3.4
|
Based
on these projections, the Marlins project to have the 3rd best
player at every infield position. Desmond is the clear leader of this group, as
Adeiny has been a terrible hitter, and Flores is not much of a fielder. If
Flores busts, the Mets will likely move onto Matt Reynolds, who should provide
more consistent defense, but doesn’t have the power upside. If Flores breaks
out, his final slash line could be much better, although it’s still unlikely he
finishes with a better fWAR than Desmond. Desmond has provided three straight
4+ fWAR seasons, so his projection might be low.
Rank: Desmond,
Flores, Hechavarria
LF
Team
|
Player
|
PA
|
Slash
|
wRC+
|
fWAR
|
Mets
|
560
|
.262/.319/.432
|
114
|
1.0
|
|
Marlins
|
Christian Yelich
|
630
|
.274/.349/.415
|
115
|
3.3
|
Nationals
|
Jayson Werth
|
525
|
.281/.368/.446
|
130
|
2.7
|
The
Marlins might have the 3rd best infield of these 3 teams, but they
make up for it with the best outfield of the group. Werth spent more time in RF
than LF in 2014, but projections have him and Harper switching spots in 2015 –
it’s not that important for this discussion. Offensively, all 3 of these guys
could outperform these projections by a good bit this season. Defensively, fWAR
reflects the fact that Yelich is an above-average defender at this point in his
career, while Werth is slightly below average at this point (though might see
his defensive metrics improve as a LFer), and Cuddyer is very below average.
Rank: Yelich, Werth,
Cuddyer
CF
Team
|
Player
|
PA
|
Slash
|
wRC+
|
fWAR
|
Mets
|
595
|
.257/.297/.361
|
88
|
2.9
|
|
Marlins
|
Marcell Ozuna
|
630
|
.259/.307/.444
|
108
|
3.1
|
Nationals
|
Denard Span
|
525
|
.281/.333/.387
|
102
|
2.4
|
I
think I understand why projections are low on Juan – he’s been BABIP reliant
thus far in his career – but I still think they underrate him. Lagares managed
a 101 wRC+ in 2014 and it pushed him up to 4 fWAR thanks to his top-notch
defense – he’s been worth 7 fWAR in 873 PA, or 4.8 fWAR/600 PA, in his career.
Span would also provide 4 fWAR in 2014, but it took his best offensive campaign
since 2009 (when he was worth 4.1 fWAR), so I’m skeptical of a repeat
performance. Ozuna saw huge gains in power from 2013 (.124 ISO) to 2014 (.186
ISO), but at the expense of contact – his K% increased from 19.6% in 2013, to
26.8% in 2014. Ozuna is a solid defender in CF, but the weakest of this
impressive group, so he needs to provide the extra offense. At the end of the
season, any one of these CFer’s could have the fWAR advantage.
Rank: Push
between Lagares and Ozuna, and then Span
RF
Team
|
Player
|
PA
|
Slash
|
wRC+
|
fWAR
|
Mets
|
525
|
.227/.316/.410
|
109
|
1.7
|
|
Marlins
|
Giancarlo Stanton
|
630
|
.276/.376/.559
|
156
|
6.0
|
Nationals
|
Bryce Harper
|
595
|
.279/.363/.491
|
138
|
4.5
|
Compared
to what Granderson is facing in this group, Prado was up against a couple of
lightweights in the 3B group. Stanton is one of the best hitters in the game,
and arguably the best right-handed power hitter right now. Harper is only 22
and has already been worth 10 fWAR over 1,489 PA (4 fWAR/600 PA), as he started
his career with back-to-back 4+ fWAR seasons. Along with the SS position, this
was the easiest group to rank.
Rank: Stanton,
Harper, Granderson
Starting Lineup
Summary
2015
|
Mets
|
Marlins
|
Nationals
|
Total fWAR
|
17.9
|
18.6
|
23.5
|
The
Nationals truly have an impressive lineup, and Denard Span was the only
Nationals starter I ranked 3rd in their group – they are the clear
favorites of the 3 teams. The Mets
and Marlins starting lineups are pretty equal by fWAR, but the Mets lineup is
more balanced, as the Mets project to have 7 regulars with league average
production or better, while the Marlins project to have only 5. The Marlins
make up for it with the high upside bats in their OF, but the Mets have two
potential impact bats in their OF too (Granderson and Cuddyer), fWAR just
doesn’t like their defense. Comparing the lineups position-by-position, the
Mets had the advantage at 5 positions, the Marlins at 2, and I gave them a push
in CF. While the Mets have no one in their lineup like Stanton, I’ll take the
lineup balance over having one big star for the long run of a season.
Starting Lineup Rank:
Nationals, Mets, Marlins
Rotation
SP #1
Team
|
Player
|
IP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
Mets
|
173
|
3.07
|
3.08
|
9.1
|
2.7
|
|
Marlins
|
Jose Fernandez
|
99
|
2.89
|
2.94
|
9.9
|
3.1
|
Nationals
|
Max Scherzer
|
211
|
2.80
|
2.78
|
10.4
|
2.4
|
Three
of the top right-handed pitchers in the majors pitch in this division, and I
don’t know how you’re supposed to pick between the 3. Fernandez won’t be back
until the middle of the season, so he will be less valuable to the Marlins this
year than Harvey and Scherzer will be to their respective teams. Harvey was
arguably the best right-handed pitcher in 2013 (if not the best pitcher
before), and he looked just as good during Spring Training. Still, Harvey’s
innings might be kept down some in 2015, so I’m giving the slight edge to
Scherzer here. Personally, I still think Harvey can have the better season, but
I’m trying not to be biased. Also, while Scherzer’s projected ERA is
better than Harvey’s, Harvey’s 10th percentile outcome is better
than Scherzer’s, so Steamer gives him a better chance of leading
the NL in ERA – they have him 2nd, with a 7.9% chance to lead
the league in ERA (Kershaw is #1, at 33.4%).
Rank: Scherzer,
Harvey, Fernandez
SP #2
Team
|
Player
|
IP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
Mets
|
165
|
3.53
|
3.41
|
8.2
|
2.7
|
|
Marlins
|
Mat Latos
|
192
|
3.68
|
3.65
|
6.9
|
2.5
|
Nationals
|
Stephen Strasburg
|
191
|
3.02
|
2.96
|
10
|
2.2
|
Three
of the top right-handed pitchers in the majors pitch in this division… wait,
these are the teams #2 starters? All three of these teams have excellent 1-2
punches, with the Nationals duo
easily having the best reputation at this point. Jacob deGrom actually had the
best 2014 by ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-, as he and Stras fell into the #1
starter slot, while Latos slipped into the #2 slot. I don’t understand the
low inning total projected for deGrom this season, as he threw a combined 178.2
IP in 2014, and so he shouldn’t have innings restrictions this year. Clearly
Stras is the favorite among the projection systems, while Latos and deGrom are
close enough to be a push. Still, since the Marlins will be using Latos as their #1 starter for the first half of the season, the Mets should have the rotation advantage at this spot until Fernandez comes back.
Rank: Strasburg,
and then a push between deGrom and Latos
SP #3
Team
|
Player
|
IP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
Mets
|
178
|
3.91
|
3.83
|
6.7
|
2.4
|
|
Marlins
|
Jarred Cosart
|
132
|
4.04
|
4.06
|
6.1
|
3.9
|
Nationals
|
Jordan Zimmerman
|
191
|
3.19
|
3.28
|
7.5
|
1.6
|
The
Nationals great starting depth really starts to stick out at this point, as
Zimmerman was actually better than Strasburg in 2014, and is the clear leader
of this group. Not sure why Cosart has such a low projected innings total here,
but he threw 180.1 IP in 2014, so shouldn’t see any limits in 2015. Cosart has
put up a solid ERA through his first 40 major league starts (85 ERA-), but he
hasn’t exactly been dominating the league – he has a career 14.6 K%: 10.7 BB%,
and .279 BABIP allowed. He gets by thanks to an impressive career groundball
rate of 54+%. Niese has been a solid #3 starter by ERA-/FIP-/xFIP- throughout
his career (104/97/95), while averaging 6 IP/start, so he continues to be a
bargain at only $7 million this season. The projections give Niese the slight
edge over Cosart on paper (big edge if you assume those inning totals), and his
career history only reinforces that idea.
Rank: Zimmerman,
Niese, Cosart
SP #4
Team
|
Player
|
IP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
Mets
|
176
|
4
|
3.83
|
6.2
|
1.5
|
|
Marlins
|
Henderson Alvarez
|
166
|
3.79
|
3.80
|
5.3
|
2.1
|
Nationals
|
Gio Gonzalez
|
162
|
3.45
|
3.44
|
8.9
|
3.4
|
Again,
the Nationals are the clear favorites, as Gio could be a top-2 starter in most
rotations. Bartolo Colon was either really good, or really bad for the Mets in
2014, finishing with a line that’s acceptable for a 5th starter.
Considering Noah Syndergaard and/or Steven Matz could force their way into the
rotation at some point this season, there’s an outside possibility the Mets
won’t use Bartolo all season long, which could give the Mets the edge over the
Marlins at the back of the rotation. Otherwise, the Marlins 2nd
groundball machine of a pitcher has the edge. The numbers make the competition
between Colon and Alvarez appear closer, but the groundball tendencies of
Alvarez have helped him consistently outperform his FIP, which doesn’t like his
low K%.
Rank: Gonzalez,
Alvarez, Colon
SP #5
Team
|
Player
|
IP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
Mets
|
98
|
4.23
|
4.24
|
6.7
|
2.5
|
|
Marlins
|
Tom Koehler
|
103
|
4.25
|
4.22
|
6.9
|
3.6
|
Marlins
|
Dan Haren
|
158
|
3.99
|
3.87
|
7
|
2
|
Nationals
|
Doug Fister
|
192
|
3.47
|
3.64
|
6.3
|
1.7
|
Mets
fans dream about a time when their top pitching prospects of the past few
seasons (Harvey, deGrom, Syndergaard, Matz, Wheeler) fill out a rotation as
well as the 2015 Nationals rotation, which is full of #1 and #2 starters. While
Gee has been perfectly cromulent at the back of the Mets rotation, it’s not
clear how long he’ll be starting this summer, and it’s unlikely he recaptures
his late
2013 form. Just like Colon, Gee is at risk of being replaced by Syndergaard
or Matz this year, but he might also have Rafael Montero breathing down his
neck. Despite Koehlers strong 2014, he’s projected to not stick in the rotation
once Fernandez gets back, though the best laid plans don’t always work out.
Haren’s career has taken an odd turn for the worse the past 3 seasons, as he’s
allowing more homeruns than ever, and stranding runners at a very low rate
(65.7 LOB% in 2014). But his K%: BB% and BABIP numbers have been close to
career averages, and he’s only 34, so it wouldn’t be unheard of for someone
like him to have a bounce back season.
Rank: Fister,
Haren, Gee, Koehler
Rotation Summary
So
the Nationals rotation is the favorite, hands down, as they win the rotation
battle at all 5 spots. The Mets and Marlins rotations are actually pretty close
when everyone is healthy (not including Zack Wheeler), but Jose Fernandez won’t
be healthy until midseason, giving the Mets a rotation advantage in the top 3
spots. I think the Marlins have the edge at the back of the rotation, but both
Colon and Gee are acceptable back of the rotation starters, and the Mets have
several AAA starters close to forcing their way into the rotation that could be
major upgrades.
Overall Rotation
Rankings: Nationals, Mets, Marlins
In
review, although I haven’t yet looked at the bullpens and benches, it’s pretty
clear why the Nationals are the NL East darlings of the media world, as
everyone and their mother has them finishing 1st in the division. A
number of factors could lead to either the Mets or the Marlins having a better
season than the Nationals (injuries, breakouts, underperformance), but the safe
bet is on Washington. Between the Mets and the Marlins, I think I’ve shown how
the Mets have the advantage on paper – they have a more balanced lineup, and a
better top of the rotation. The Marlins lineup had a higher projected WAR, but
is too top heavy, while the Mets have a lot of depth at nearly every position.
While
the Nationals have a clear advantage on paper, I don’t think they will go out
and win the division by 10+ games, and it’s very possible the Mets and Marlins
will be battling for a Wild Card spot (or two). Because of this, it will be
especially important for the Mets to get
off to a fast start, as they face the NL East a lot early in the season,
with 16 of their first 22 games coming against the Braves, Marlins and
Phillies. Since the Mets get to beat up on the Braves and Phillies for 38 games
this year, they have an advantage over some of their wild
card competitors. Personally, I think the Mets will finish 2nd
in the division and earn a wild card spot, as I think at least 2 playoff teams
are coming out of the NL East.
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— SpaceAstronomer (@SpaceAstronomer) April 4, 2015
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