The Mets superstar 3B
has not looked himself offensively, should Mets fans be concerned?
#DavidWright is ready for Game 2 of the #SubwaySeries tonight. #LGM pic.twitter.com/aNWszU1RN2
— New York Mets (@Mets) May 13, 2014
It’s May 15th and David Wright
only has 2 homeruns and 10 doubles through his first 180 PA’s, to go along with
the lowest BB% (by a good margin) since his 2004 debut, and a K% closer to his
‘merely good’ campaigns of 2009-11, are you concerned yet? His overall hitting
production has been down so far despite a high .368 BABIP, which would be the
second highest of his career. Also, his batted ball distance was significantly lower
in April than in 2013. The Mets and their fans have been waiting for the
captain to return to form, but what’s been going on?
Table 1 below shows how David
Wright has fared on those offensive categories that have ‘stabilized’ this
early in the season. Per this Fangraphs Sample Size
page, his strikeout rate, walk rate, groundball rate and fly ball rate have
stabilized, while his ISO and HR/FB rate are close to reaching their
stabilization points.
Table 1 – Statistics that have stabilized for Wright so far
in 2014 and how they compare to his career totals.
Stat
|
Threshold
|
2014 Totals
|
2014
|
Career Totals
|
Career
|
K%
|
60 PA
|
180 PA
|
22.8%
|
6,125 PA
|
18.4%
|
BB%
|
120 PA
|
180 PA
|
5.6%
|
6,125 PA
|
11.1%
|
GB%
|
80 BIP
|
127 BIP
|
38.6%
|
4,271 BIP
|
38.6%
|
FB%
|
80 BIP
|
127 BIP
|
34.6%
|
4,271 BIP
|
38.8%
|
ISO
|
160 AB
|
166 AB
|
.096
|
5,338 AB
|
.202
|
HR/FB
|
50 FB
|
44 FB
|
4.5%
|
1,658 FB
|
13.5%
|
Although
these rates are said to have ‘stabilized,’ they are not what should be expected
the rest of the way from David Wright. His 2014 totals are only ~2.5% of his
career totals, so he should still be expected to regress towards those career
rates the rest of the season. However, these rates can no longer be attributed
to early season small sample size fluctuations, and it will be hard for him to
end up with his usual great numbers. Historically, Wright has hit his fewest
HR’s in March and April – his 29 HR’s are six fewer than the next closest month
(July), he had zero in March/April 2007 – so there is precedent that his HR
production will improve the rest of the season. Similarly, his K% has improved
throughout the season after May. Unfortunately, March and April have generally
his best month by BB% (14.5% for his career), although it has stayed pretty
constant from May-August (10-11% range). So while it is likely Wright will see
his BB% improve the rest of the season, it will be hard for him to not set a
new low mark for a full season.
Since his problems were likely obvious
to anyone who has been watching the Mets all season, it might be more useful to
look at his splits to see if there’s anything he’s likely to improve upon
moving forward. Table’s 2-4 below compare David’s 2014 splits to his career
totals, keep in mind the thresholds listed in Table 1.
Table 2 – David’s L/R splits in 2014 and his career.
PA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
ISO
|
BABIP
|
|
2014 vs. L
|
44
|
18.2
|
4.5
|
.171
|
.515
|
Career vs. L
|
1581
|
12.8
|
14.2
|
.238
|
.360
|
2014 vs. R
|
136
|
24.3
|
5.9
|
.072
|
.315
|
Career vs. R
|
4540
|
20.4
|
10
|
.190
|
.335
|
First,
David has faced left-handed pitchers at his career average rate of around 25%. Second,
44 PA’s is still a small sample size. Third, what is going on here against
lefties? One thing has been certain during David’s career: lefties will walk
him. He’s had the higher K% against lefties before, the sub-.200 ISO’s before,
but hasn’t had a single-digit walk rate against lefties since 2004. That BABIP
is inflated by a higher percentage of single than normal, and his overall
XBH/PA against lefties is at his career average, so Wright should stay
productive as that regresses. Looking at his spray charts against lefties in
2014 compared to 2012-13 (as that’s all that is available on Fangraphs), Wright
appears to be pulling the ball a little more often early on. Against righties
Wright has been using the whole field well, but his overall numbers are not
helped by the four fly outs to the right-center field warning track/wall –
might be homeruns in some parks, but still glad the Mets don’t play in a
bandbox.
Table 3 – David’s Home/Road splits in 2014 and his career.
PA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
ISO
|
BABIP
|
|
2014 Home
|
90
|
25.6
|
6.7
|
.125
|
.368
|
2012-13 Home
|
569
|
14.6
|
12.3
|
.186
|
.294
|
2014 Road
|
90
|
20
|
4.4
|
.070
|
.368
|
Career Road
|
3133
|
20
|
10
|
.199
|
.349
|
The
Mets made their most recent modifications to Citi field before the 2012 season,
so I only included his statistics in the current environment. The two things to
take away from this are how often he is striking out at home and how little
power he is offering the Mets on the road. As long as he keeps hitting the ball
well to all fields, he’ll see his numbers improve on the road.
Table 4 – David’s Empty/On-Base splits in 2014 and his
career.
PA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
ISO
|
BABIP
|
|
2014 Empty
|
91
|
28.6
|
4.4
|
.047
|
.383
|
Career Empty
|
3182
|
18.4
|
10.4
|
.197
|
.341
|
2014 On Base
|
89
|
16.9
|
6.7
|
.150
|
.354
|
Career On Base
|
2939
|
18.5
|
11.9
|
.208
|
.343
|
This
was the most confusing split of them all – what is going on when he bats with
the bases empty? He has had poor K: BB rates and been a singles hitter. The
Mets need Wright to get himself into scoring position more often so the rest of
the lineup doesn’t have to waste outs getting him there. Just like the rest of
his splits and statistics, his splits with the bases empty appear to indicate a
problem with approach, though it seems almost more concerning that he’s having
these problems with the bases empty. Is he expanding his strike zone trying to
provide that extra spark? Good hitters often trade power for strikeouts, but
David has offered no power while striking out a bunch with the bases empty.
It’s only 89 PA’s, so it still wouldn’t take too much of a hot streak to make
everything look better.
He
has been worse than his career rates in every split except BABIP and K% on the
road, which is even. These splits tell the story of how Wright has performed in
certain situations thus far, but are still too small of a sample size against
his career rates to conclude that Wright will keep struggling so much in those
situations. Still, I will be paying attention to any differences in approach
for Wright, and differences in how he is pitched, when batting with runners on
base as opposed to bases empty. Also, I would not expect Wright to keep hitting
this poorly on the road the rest of the season. Hopefully he can start
regressing with a big series this weekend in D.C. against the Nationals!
Considering
Dubs is striking out more than average and walking less than ever, the last
thing I wanted to explore were his contact rates. Unfortunately, since he’s
seen just 657 pitches, there’s only a difference from his career rates of about
13 extra pitches seen in the strike zone, 6 extra pitches taken for strikes,
and 8 extra swing-and-misses. It might be more useful to look at whether he was
chasing or taking more often in certain counts than in the past. On that note,
Wright has seen his strikeout rate increase even when he gets
ahead in the count at some point during the at-bat.
While
the overall package has allowed Wright to maintain an average rate of hitting
production, as measured by wRC+ (102 so far), he has mostly been a singles
hitter with a high BABIP. The Mets offense desperately needs him to snap out of
it and start driving the ball for extra bases on a regular basis. As always, I
look forward to when he finally does get hot – he won’t save the offense on his
own, but he sure can carry the team for stretches at a time.
The mystery of the fast (5ms!) cosmic radio bursts in astronomy: http://t.co/F1dITZhSI1
— Planetary Society (@exploreplanets) May 14, 2014
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