Thanks to a 22-28 start to the season, the Mets will need to finish
68-44, which is a .607 winning percentage (or 98.4 win pace), to reach Sandy
Alderson’s challenge of 90 wins.
Photo: #Mets GM Sandy Alderson on a conference call with bloggers... pic.twitter.com/l7AZLhSQhw
— Randy Medina (@ReadTheApple) February 27, 2013
The
2014 season will likely be remembered for how well the Mets fared relative to
GM Sandy Alderson’s 90-win challenge/prediction in spring training. Here at
Astromets Mind, I have been keeping track of the Mets pace towards 90 wins
while looking at individual performances over approximately 20 game intervals (Here’s
the second report). Yesterday, before the Mets lost, I saw a post at
MetsMerizedOnline (Is
The Quest For 90 Over? The Math Says It Is.), which concluded, “I’m still
that annoying optimistic Mets fan, but the #QuestFor90 is over.” His conclusion
is based on the fact that “The Mets have achieved 97 wins only five other times
in their history – 1969, 1986, 1988, 1999, and 2006,” and that this team is
‘hardly’ on par with those teams. First, I wasn’t alive quite yet, but www.baseball-reference.com has the
Mets winning 98 games in 1985 – I’m a 1987 baby – which makes the total six
(out of 52 completed season, or 11.5%). I understand that he’s not claiming the
Mets are mathematically eliminated, we’re all still dreaming they have a
chance, but the piece did make me want to dig a little deeper into the Mets
history.
While
97 wins is the pace over a 162 game schedule, the Mets haven’t always finished
162 games – for example, they won a tiebreaker against the Reds in 1999 for
their 97th win. More importantly, these Mets don’t need to win 97
games this season; they just need to win 68 of their last 112 games. Previous
Mets teams who won around 90 games likely had stretches of 68 wins in 112
games, right?
In Table 1 below I have broken down
the Mets W-L records into: their first 50 games, their last 112 games (or until
the end of the season), and their final overall record. In addition, using the bb-ref streak
analyzer, I kept track of how often they won 68 games in a 112 game span (games
1-112, 2-113, …, 50-161, 51-162) – this is the ‘#Stretches≥.607’ column. The
Mets have 4/52 seasons with 98+ wins (7.7%), and 183/2521 streaks of 68 wins in
112 games (7.3%).
As can be seen in the table, the
Mets needed such stretches in all but two of their 90+ win seasons (highlighted
in orange). The 1984 Mets won 90 games without such a stretch, something these
2014 Mets no longer have the luxury of. Also of note is the 1988 Mets team,
whose best 112 game stretch was 67-45 (.598 WP), while their worst 112
game-stretch was 63-49 (.562 WP), yet they managed a final record of 100-60
(.625 WP).
So,
based on their history, the Mets chances of winning 90 games are pretty low,
but they weren’t that great coming into the season anyway. However, the Mets
teams to reach 90+ wins have generally had stretches like this team needs right
now. Also, the Mets have been making changes to the roster recently, with more
moves possibly still to come. Changes don’t guarantee anything positive, but we
can hope – ya gotta’ believe!
Table 1 – Looking at where the Mets stood after 50 games, how they finished and for stretches of 68 wins in 112 games (winning percentage in
brackets)
Year
|
First 50
|
Last 112*
|
#Stretches ≥ .607
|
Final
|
2014
|
22-28
|
?
|
?
|
?
|
2013
|
21-29
|
53-59 (.473)
|
0/51
|
74-88 (.457)
|
2012
|
28-22
|
46-66 (.411)
|
0/51
|
74-88 (.457)
|
2011
|
23-27
|
54-58 (.482)
|
0/51
|
77-85 (.475)
|
2010
|
25-25
|
54-58 (.482)
|
0/51
|
79-83 (.488)
|
2009
|
28-22
|
42-70 (.375)
|
0/51
|
70-92 (.432)
|
2008
|
24-26
|
65-47 (.580)
|
0/51
|
89-73 (.549)
|
2007
|
33-17
|
55-57 (.491)
|
0/51
|
88-74 (.543)
|
2006
|
31-19
|
66-46 (.589)
|
29/51
|
97-65 (.599)
|
2005
|
26-24
|
57-55 (.509)
|
0/51
|
83-79 (.512)
|
2004
|
24-26
|
47-65 (.420)
|
0/51
|
71-91 (.438)
|
2003
|
22-28
|
44-68 (.393)
|
0/50
|
66-95 (.410)
|
2002
|
27-23
|
49-63 (.438)
|
0/50
|
75-86 (.466)
|
2001
|
22-28
|
60-52 (.536)
|
0/51
|
82-80 (.506)
|
2000
|
28-22
|
66-46 (.589)
|
6/51
|
94-68 (.580)
|
1999
|
27-23
|
70-42 (.625)
|
32/52
|
97-66 (.595)
|
1998
|
30-20
|
58-54 (.518)
|
0/51
|
88-74 (.543)
|
1997
|
27-23
|
61-51 (.545)
|
0/51
|
88-74 (.543)
|
1996
|
21-29
|
50-62 (.446)
|
0/51
|
71-91 (.438)
|
1995
|
19-31
|
57-55 (.509)
|
0/33
|
69-75 (.479)
|
1994
|
25-25
|
30-33 (.476)
|
0/2
|
55-58 (.487)
|
1993
|
18-32
|
41-71 (.366)
|
0/51
|
59-103 (.364)
|
1992
|
26-24
|
46-66 (.411)
|
0/51
|
72-90 (.444)
|
1991
|
27-23
|
50-61 (.446)
|
0/50
|
77-84 (.478)
|
1990
|
23-27
|
68-44 (.607)
|
6/51
|
91-71 (.562)
|
1989
|
26-24
|
61-51 (.545)
|
0/51
|
87-75 (.537)
|
1988
|
34-16
|
67-45 (.598)
|
0/49
|
100-60 (.625)
|
1987
|
25-25
|
67-45 (.598)
|
11/51
|
92-70 (568)
|
1986
|
35-15
|
73-39 (.652)
|
51/51
|
108-54 (.667)
|
1985
|
30-20
|
68-44 (.607)
|
10/51
|
98-64 (.605)
|
1984
|
27-23
|
63-49 (.562)
|
0/51
|
90-72 (.556)
|
1983
|
18-32
|
50-62 (.446)
|
0/51
|
68-94 (.420)
|
1982
|
27-23
|
38-74 (.339)
|
0/51
|
65-97 (.401)
|
1981
|
17-32-1
|
24-30-1 (.444)
|
-
|
41-62-2 (.398)
|
1980
|
23-27
|
44-68 (.393)
|
0/51
|
67-95 (.414)
|
1979
|
19-30-1
|
44-69 (.389)
|
0/52
|
63-99-1 (.389)
|
1978
|
23-27
|
43-69 (.384)
|
0/51
|
66-96 (.407)
|
1977
|
19-31
|
45-67 (.402)
|
0/51
|
64-98 (.395)
|
1976
|
24-26
|
62-50 (.554)
|
0/51
|
86-76 (.531)
|
1975
|
27-23
|
55-57 (.491)
|
0/51
|
82-80 (.506)
|
1974
|
21-29
|
50-62 (.446)
|
0/51
|
71-91 (.438)
|
1973
|
23-27
|
59-52 (.532)
|
0/45
|
82-79 (.509)
|
1972
|
33-17
|
50-56 (.472)
|
0/45
|
83-73 (.532)
|
1971
|
30-20
|
53-59 (.473)
|
0/51
|
83-79 (.512)
|
1970
|
25-25
|
58-54 (.518)
|
0/51
|
83-79 (.512)
|
1969
|
27-23
|
73-39 (.652)
|
38/51
|
100-62 (.617)
|
1968
|
23-27
|
50-62-1 (.446)
|
0/52
|
73-89-1 (.451)
|
1967
|
17-33
|
44-68 (.393)
|
0/51
|
61-101 (.377)
|
1966
|
20-30
|
47-65 (.420)
|
0/50
|
66-95 (.410)
|
1965
|
20-29-1
|
30-83-1 (.265)
|
0/53
|
50-112-2 (.309)
|
1964
|
16-34
|
37-74 -1(.333)
|
0/52
|
53-109-1 (.327)
|
1963
|
18-32
|
33-79 (.295)
|
0/51
|
51-111 (.315)
|
1962
|
13-37
|
27-83-1 (.245)
|
0/50
|
40-120-1 (.250)
|
(*Or the rest of the season)
Scientists Discover a Jewel at the Heart of Quantum Physics & it's turning physics on its head| Science
http://t.co/rCaHFSH8hg
— Saturnius (@PaxNostrum) May 25, 2014
Leave your comment
Post a Comment