The Mets Road to 90 - Mathematically Eliminated Already? | Astromets Mind

Tuesday, May 27, 2014

The Mets Road to 90 - Mathematically Eliminated Already?


Thanks to a 22-28 start to the season, the Mets will need to finish 68-44, which is a .607 winning percentage (or 98.4 win pace), to reach Sandy Alderson’s challenge of 90 wins.


            The 2014 season will likely be remembered for how well the Mets fared relative to GM Sandy Alderson’s 90-win challenge/prediction in spring training. Here at Astromets Mind, I have been keeping track of the Mets pace towards 90 wins while looking at individual performances over approximately 20 game intervals (Here’s the second report). Yesterday, before the Mets lost, I saw a post at MetsMerizedOnline (Is The Quest For 90 Over? The Math Says It Is.), which concluded, “I’m still that annoying optimistic Mets fan, but the #QuestFor90 is over.” His conclusion is based on the fact that “The Mets have achieved 97 wins only five other times in their history – 1969, 1986, 1988, 1999, and 2006,” and that this team is ‘hardly’ on par with those teams. First, I wasn’t alive quite yet, but www.baseball-reference.com has the Mets winning 98 games in 1985 – I’m a 1987 baby – which makes the total six (out of 52 completed season, or 11.5%). I understand that he’s not claiming the Mets are mathematically eliminated, we’re all still dreaming they have a chance, but the piece did make me want to dig a little deeper into the Mets history.
            While 97 wins is the pace over a 162 game schedule, the Mets haven’t always finished 162 games – for example, they won a tiebreaker against the Reds in 1999 for their 97th win. More importantly, these Mets don’t need to win 97 games this season; they just need to win 68 of their last 112 games. Previous Mets teams who won around 90 games likely had stretches of 68 wins in 112 games, right?
In Table 1 below I have broken down the Mets W-L records into: their first 50 games, their last 112 games (or until the end of the season), and their final overall record. In addition, using the bb-ref streak analyzer, I kept track of how often they won 68 games in a 112 game span (games 1-112, 2-113, …, 50-161, 51-162) – this is the ‘#Stretches≥.607’ column. The Mets have 4/52 seasons with 98+ wins (7.7%), and 183/2521 streaks of 68 wins in 112 games (7.3%).
As can be seen in the table, the Mets needed such stretches in all but two of their 90+ win seasons (highlighted in orange). The 1984 Mets won 90 games without such a stretch, something these 2014 Mets no longer have the luxury of. Also of note is the 1988 Mets team, whose best 112 game stretch was 67-45 (.598 WP), while their worst 112 game-stretch was 63-49 (.562 WP), yet they managed a final record of 100-60 (.625 WP).
            So, based on their history, the Mets chances of winning 90 games are pretty low, but they weren’t that great coming into the season anyway. However, the Mets teams to reach 90+ wins have generally had stretches like this team needs right now. Also, the Mets have been making changes to the roster recently, with more moves possibly still to come. Changes don’t guarantee anything positive, but we can hope – ya gotta’ believe!



Table 1 – Looking at where the Mets stood after 50 games, how they finished and for stretches of 68 wins in 112 games (winning percentage in brackets)
Year
First 50
Last 112*
#Stretches ≥ .607
Final
2014
22-28
?
?
?
2013
21-29
53-59 (.473)
0/51
74-88 (.457)
2012
28-22
46-66 (.411)
0/51
74-88 (.457)
2011
23-27
54-58 (.482)
0/51
77-85 (.475)
2010
25-25
54-58 (.482)
0/51
79-83 (.488)
2009
28-22
42-70 (.375)
0/51
70-92 (.432)
2008
24-26
65-47 (.580)
0/51
89-73 (.549)
2007
33-17
55-57 (.491)
0/51
88-74 (.543)
2006
31-19
66-46 (.589)
29/51
97-65 (.599)
2005
26-24
57-55 (.509)
0/51
83-79 (.512)
2004
24-26
47-65 (.420)
0/51
71-91 (.438)
2003
22-28
44-68 (.393)
0/50
66-95 (.410)
2002
27-23
49-63 (.438)
0/50
75-86 (.466)
2001
22-28
60-52 (.536)
0/51
82-80 (.506)
2000
28-22
66-46 (.589)
6/51
94-68 (.580)
1999
27-23
70-42 (.625)
32/52
97-66 (.595)
1998
30-20
58-54 (.518)
0/51
88-74 (.543)
1997
27-23
61-51 (.545)
0/51
88-74 (.543)
1996
21-29
50-62 (.446)
0/51
71-91 (.438)
1995
19-31
57-55 (.509)
0/33
69-75 (.479)
1994
25-25
30-33 (.476)
0/2
55-58 (.487)
1993
18-32
41-71 (.366)
0/51
59-103 (.364)
1992
26-24
46-66 (.411)
0/51
72-90 (.444)
1991
27-23
50-61 (.446)
0/50
77-84 (.478)
1990
23-27
68-44 (.607)
6/51
91-71 (.562)
1989
26-24
61-51 (.545)
0/51
87-75 (.537)
1988
34-16
67-45 (.598)
0/49
100-60 (.625)
1987
25-25
67-45 (.598)
11/51
92-70 (568)
1986
35-15
73-39 (.652)
51/51
108-54 (.667)
1985
30-20
68-44 (.607)
10/51
98-64 (.605)
1984
27-23
63-49 (.562)
0/51
90-72 (.556)
1983
18-32
50-62 (.446)
0/51
68-94 (.420)
1982
27-23
38-74 (.339)
0/51
65-97 (.401)
1981
17-32-1
24-30-1 (.444)
-
41-62-2 (.398)
1980
23-27
44-68 (.393)
0/51
67-95 (.414)
1979
19-30-1
44-69 (.389)
0/52
63-99-1 (.389)
1978
23-27
43-69 (.384)
0/51
66-96 (.407)
1977
19-31
45-67 (.402)
0/51
64-98 (.395)
1976
24-26
62-50 (.554)
0/51
86-76 (.531)
1975
27-23
55-57 (.491)
0/51
82-80 (.506)
1974
21-29
50-62 (.446)
0/51
71-91 (.438)
1973
23-27
59-52 (.532)
0/45
82-79 (.509)
1972
33-17
50-56 (.472)
0/45
83-73 (.532)
1971
30-20
53-59 (.473)
0/51
83-79 (.512)
1970
25-25
58-54 (.518)
0/51
83-79 (.512)
1969
27-23
73-39 (.652)
38/51
100-62 (.617)
1968
23-27
50-62-1 (.446)
0/52
73-89-1 (.451)
1967
17-33
44-68 (.393)
0/51
61-101 (.377)
1966
20-30
47-65 (.420)
0/50
66-95 (.410)
1965
20-29-1
30-83-1 (.265)
0/53
50-112-2 (.309)
1964
16-34
37-74 -1(.333)
0/52
53-109-1 (.327)
1963
18-32
33-79 (.295)
0/51
51-111 (.315)
1962
13-37
27-83-1 (.245)
0/50
40-120-1 (.250)
(*Or the rest of the season)
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