The 2015 FSL MVP has yet to show the homerun power expected from 1B,
but he’s done everything else well at the plate
2015 with St. Lucie: 497 PA, .305/.354/.417, 58 R, 33 2B, 6 HR, 79 RBI, 75 K: 35 BB (15.1 K%: 7 BB%), 133 wRC+, .351 BABIP, .112 ISO, 47.3 GB%: 29.8 FB%: 20.7 LD%: 2.1 PU%
2015 in the AFL: 60 PA, .362/.483/.511, 8 R, 4 2B, HR, 6
RBI, 10 K: 12 BB (16.7 K%: 20 BB%), 177 wRC+, .432 BABIP, .149 ISO, 42.9 GB%:
17.1 FB%: 37.1 LD%: 2.9 PU%, 3.98 P/PA, 7.9 SwStr%, 18.6 Whiff/Swing
 |
| Dominic Smith's Strike Zone Profile from last year in the AFL (catcher's perspective) |
Dominic
Smith is one of the more talked about prospects in the Mets system, so I hardly
need to introduce him or the questions about his homerun power. To date, Smith
has 1,221 PA at the minor leagues, with a mere 189 strikeouts (15.5 K%), a
.290/.357/.387 slash, and only 2 plate appearances against a younger pitcher
(per BB-Ref) - so he’s produced as one of the youngest players in the league at
all 4 of his minor league stops. But he only has 10 HR during that time, and
he’s limited defensively to a position that expects homerun output. Those who
have seen him in batting practice have been privy to a very nice show, but he’s
yet to turn that raw power into game power, and that’s where it counts. Despite
winning the FSL MVP last year and leading the league with 33 doubles, he only
managed 6 homeruns in nearly 500 PA, though it should be noted that there were
only 28 players to hit 7+ homeruns in the FSL last year (max was 14), and most
of those guys also spent the whole season there. Now 6 homeruns with St. Lucie
may not be much, but if those Flonase commercials have taught me anything, it’s
that six is greater than one, which
was his 2014 total. The Baseball America 2016
Prospect Guidebook suggests Smith shows a lot of promise as a hitter even if
he doesn’t develop a lot of homerun power, “…even scouts who are pessimistic
about his ceiling concede that his loose hitting actions, hand-eye coordination
and smooth lefthanded stroke will produce a high batting average.” They also
said that, “he doesn’t strike out much, and he has one of the best two-strike
approaches in the system,” which is always nice in a prospect. Unfortunately, I
only got to see randomly posted home video quality GIFs of Smith at bat in
2015, so I was forced to turn to the radio for info on his daily PA’s, which
means I don’t have any new visual observations to add to the discussion about
Smith. But I did just create a new stat page
with a number of advanced splits that you’re not going to find anywhere else,
so let’s dig into a few of those and see if we can’t find some trends to look
out for in 2016.
Table 1 – Dominic Smith’s 2015 Splits by Month
Month
|
PA
|
XBH
|
BB%
|
K%
|
wRC+
|
GB%
|
August
|
39
|
1
|
5.1
|
20.5
|
50
|
44.8
|
May
|
112
|
14
|
6.2
|
19.6
|
131
|
50
|
June
|
116
|
11
|
6
|
15.5
|
170
|
49.4
|
July
|
112
|
7
|
6.2
|
12.5
|
133
|
45.1
|
August
|
113
|
6
|
10.6
|
9.7
|
146
|
46.1
|
Naturally, after I brag about the
advanced splits you won’t get anywhere else, I begin by looking at his monthly
splits, but I wanted to look at how he progressed throughout the season first.
After a slow start in April and some minor injury problems, Smith returned to
the St. Lucie lineup and went on fire for the rest of the season, seemingly getting
better with every month. Because I’m constantly tuning into St. Lucie Mets
games on radio during the season, I was able to able to transcribe an interview
with Smith and radio host Adam MacDonald from June during which he discussed
his resurgence and a few other topics. It’s great to see his strikeout and
walk rates trend the way they did (that’s the type of progression you want to
see from every prospect), and it’s useful to note that it was both swinging
strikeouts and strikeouts looking that Smith reduced as the season went on. Let's take a quick look at his platoon splits before getting to what I really wanted to discuss.
Table 2 – Dominic Smith’s 2015 Splits by Pitcher Handedness
Throws
|
PA
|
2B
|
HR
|
BB%
|
K%
|
wRC+
|
GB%
|
L
|
147
|
15
|
0
|
5.4
|
17
|
136
|
51.4
|
R
|
345
|
18
|
6
|
7.8
|
13.9
|
138
|
45.7
|
Aside
from the homerun distribution – 9 of 10 career homeruns have come against RHP’s
– Smith hasn’t shown a big platoon split in his minor league career. Of the 40 LHB’s
with a minimum of 40 PA’s against LHP in the FSL last year, Smith ranked 9th
by wRC+ and his 15 doubles were by far the most (next closest was 10 from Dylan
Cozens) – he also led all LHB’s with 15 XBH against southpaws. Not having to
platoon Smith would be a great advantage for the Mets, so I’ll be keeping a
close eye as to whether he can continue his same-side success in the upper
levels of the system. Now that we’ve gotten our feet wet looking back at some
basic info from Dom’s 2015, let’s dive into the much more interesting spits
shown in Tables 3 and 4 below, the splits by batted ball type and direction.
Table 3 – Dominic Smith’s 2015 Splits by Batted Ball Type
Batted Ball Type*
|
PA
|
wOBA
|
FSL wOBA
|
Fly balls
|
112
|
.418
|
.339
|
Groundballs
|
185
|
.224
|
.239
|
Line drives
|
78
|
.824
|
.805
|
*He went 0-7 on batted balls labeled pop ups
Table 4 – Dominic Smith’s 2015 Splits by Batted Ball
Direction
Direction
|
PA
|
%
|
ISO
|
FSL ISO*
|
wOBA
|
FSL wOBA*
|
GB%
|
Center
|
125
|
31.9
|
.082
|
.069
|
.398
|
.361
|
41.9
|
Opposite
|
108
|
27.5
|
.243
|
.090
|
.559ª
|
.331
|
24.5
|
Pull
|
159
|
40.6
|
.101
|
.136
|
.317
|
.348
|
67.7
|
*LHB only
ª2nd in the FSL, min. 40 balls in play to the
opposite field (both LHB and RHB)
As
you probably guessed, the split I wanted to highlight here was Smith’s success
on balls hit to the opposite field. He also had his most production on balls to
the opposite field with Savannah in 2014 – when his .387 wOBA was 60 points
above average for LHB’s – so this isn’t a new trend for him, and it backs up observations
several outlets have noted: he’s both more comfortable going the other way, and
capable of some serious oppo-taco power. He didn’t hit an oppo taco homerun in
the minors until 2015, but 4 of his 6 homeruns last year went to LF, and 26 of
his 59 doubles (44%) over the past 2 seasons have been to LF. It didn’t go out,
but he took a lefty (Trey Ball IIRC) to the mini-monster in Greenville like it
was nothing during one of the few MiLB.tv looks we got in 2014, and that easy
power has stuck out in my mind since then.
If
you thought the split I wanted to highlight was his poor performance when
pulling the ball, you might be a pessiMets fan. That’s fine, though it’s
probably better for your health if you could try to let some optiMetsm into
your life once in awhile. I mean, on the bright side, his .317 wOBA on balls
hit pull-side was a significant improvement over his .257 wOBA in 2014, when
the SAL average for LHB’s was a .395 wOBA to balls hit pull-side. He shrunk the
gap considerably, though leaving Historic Grayson Stadium helped plenty too, as
it was a historically
bad park for lefties. Smith showed excellent pull power when he lined one to the
RF wall against Collin McHugh last week, but all anyone wanted to focus on
after the fact was that he didn’t hustle out of the box and was held to a
single. Yes, it is inexcusable, even in Spring Training, but the only people
who need to be upset about it are Dom Smith and his coaches. Because that
became the focus, instead of the casual fan remembering him as the young
prospect who hit a rocket off of Collin McHugh in a Spring Training game, they’ll
be remembering a young punk with a bad haircut who
thinks he can Cadillac it with his limited warning track power. Of course
that’s just one example of good pull power, and it’s getting away from the fact
that he has way underperformed when pulling the ball over the past 2 seasons.
His groundball rate on pulled balls was 75.7% in 2014, so his 2015 rate was a
step in the right direction. Pulling the ball on the ground that often is
probably going to lead to infield shifts being employed against Smith with more
regularity as he moves up the latter, so things will only get harder for him in
this area until he starts pulling the ball in the air more often, and with more
authority. And that’s not just the stats that suggest that, looking back to BA,
“Smith must learn to loft the ball to enhance his below-average power, rather
than grow naturally into more power.” The good news is that Smith gets to play
in a fair park and league this season, and with MiLB.tv coverage, so we can
start getting a read on where his homerun power and ability to loft the ball
are in just a few short weeks (I’m getting pumped!!).
When the B-Mets season starts in a few
weeks, Dominic Smith is expected to be one of two 20-year olds playing on the
Binghamton infield, which is pretty awesome for the organization. He’ll be
playing in the fairest park and league in the Mets system (we’ll see how Spirit
Communications Park plays), and at the level where results start to matter, so
there will be no more excuses made for him, and the spotlight on him is going
to be even brighter with MiLB.tv daily coverage available. But remember, he’s
going to be 20 until mid-June, so he could repeat AA in 2017 and still be ahead
of the curve. Personally, I think that I’m going to be making a lot
of Smith HR GIF’s this year as he breaks out. I just hope that he doesn’t sell out too much of
his great contact rate in exchange for those power gains.
I collected a few Dom Smith GIF's from 2014 here, if interested.
Sharpest View Ever of Dusty Disc Around Aging Star https://t.co/hALdjBsgWi #astronomy #telescope pic.twitter.com/aVacXtFRNB— HubbleScience (@hubblescience) March 9, 2016
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