The Bronx-born infielder would make for a great hometown story, but can
he actually help the Mets?
The
Mets signed T.J. Rivera as an undrafted free agent following the 2011 draft,
which means that all 30 teams passed up the 50 opportunities they could have
had to draft him out of Troy University. In total, 1,530 players were drafted
during the Rule 4 draft in June, 2011, a large majority of which are already
out of affiliated ball or will never have as much minor league success as T.J.
Rivera has had to date. He’s already 27, so he’s a little old for a prospect. If
he were 2-3 years younger when he started his run in the system, he would’ve generated a bit more attention as he came up, but he was consistently
1-3 years older than the average competition (per BB-Ref), so younger guys were
given shots at AA he could’ve
justifiably been given based on his production with St. Lucie between 2012 and
2014. He’s not one of the faster players on the field, a defensive-whiz, or a masher;
instead he has fringe-average speed, is a good defender at 2B/3B with some SS
experience (based on his 2014 with the B-Mets, he would be a good emergency option at SS), and is more of a singles hitter who has excelled on groundballs. This gives him that ‘everyman’ quality that lets a fan dream about an alternate
universe in which they worked their ass off (like T.J. absolutely has) to make
the most of their physical abilities and be on the cusp of their childhood
dream of playing a game for a living, outside in the summer time, for their
hometown team, and then choosing the #31 before it gets retired… Sorry, started
daydreaming there. My point was, he’s a great underdog story, and he’d be the type of
hard-nose, blue-collar, hometown player that Mets fans love to embrace – so
long as he stays reasonably productive. Unfortunately, being reasonably productive off the bench for the Mets is not something I have been
totally convinced of watching him play the past season plus between AA and AAA – I
could watch him everyday on MiLB.tv in 2015, but only in select away games
while playing in the EL during the second half of the 2014 season. Below I take
a look at trends in T.J.’s play at the upper minors that should help explain
why I have my doubts, and then share GIF links of some of his better hits from
2015 at the bottom.
2015 with Binghamton
234 PA, .341/.380/.455, 37 R, 10 2B, 5 HR, 27 RBI, 22 K: 12
BB (9.4 K%: 5.1 BB%), .363 BABIP, .114 ISO, 144 wRC+, 45.6 GB%: 28.2 FB%: 20.4
LD%: 5.8 PU%, 7.4 SwStr%, 14.6 Whiff/Swing, 3.42 P/PA
2015 with Las Vegas
196 PA, .306/.345/.443, 26 R, 17 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 21 RBI, 25 K:
7 BB (12.8 K%: 3.6 BB%), .346 BABIP, .137 ISO, 111 wRC+, 50.6 GB%: 17.9 FB%:
24.4 LD%: 7.1 PU%, 8.4 SwStr%, 16.2 Whiff/Swing, 3.29 P/PA
T.J. has had a .289+ batting
average at every stop thus far in the minors, and is at .318/.366/.418 over
2206 minor league plate appearances, with a mere 278 strikeouts (12.6 K%) in
his pro career, so it’s clear he has hit. He has a nice compact swing, and
former Mets exec Paul DePodesta described him as having a good ability to
“barrel the ball.” He’s good at staying within the zone, and he’ll take a
strike when context calls (check out his thoughts on the subject in this cool interview from 2013
featuring T.J., Matt Reynolds, and former Mets prospect Dustin Lawley), but
he’s not one to wait around for a walk. Considering he has maintained a high
BABIP in the minors, I’ve tried to pay close attention to his batted ball
authority, and that’s why I noticed he seemed to be having an unusually high
level of success on groundballs for a player with his speed. I discussed my
concerns over the way he was having success last
May (there are GIF links to 25 of his hits from 2014 and early 2015 on that
page), but I didn’t have the stats to back up my observations then. Well thanks
to my minor
league stat page, I can now back up those observations.
Table 1 – Comparing T.J. Rivera’s BABIP on groundballs to
league average
Stop
|
PA
|
BABIP on
Groundballs
|
League BABIP on
Groundballs
|
2015 PCL
|
83
|
.284
|
.247
|
2015 EL
|
98
|
.316
|
.251
|
2014 EL
|
94
|
.312
|
.257
|
As
you can see, Rivera’s BABIP on groundballs has been well above average at the
highest levels of the minor leagues. I’ve grouped bunts in with groundballs in
my breakdown (for now), and bunts actually tend to have a much higher average
league BABIP since so many of them get counted as sac hits, so those league
average has been inflated some compared to the BB-Ref
league numbers (look under ‘hit trajectory,’ if interested). Looking at my
spray charts, it looks like Rivera has only attempted 3 bunts between AA and
AAA, so he has not been benefitting from that boost. The major league average
BABIP on groundballs has been in the .230s/.240s over the past 10 years, and
fielders are generally better in the majors. In addition, players have had
better than league average success on groundballs at Cashman Field (the 51s
home park) and NYSEG Stadium (the B-Mets home park) over the past 5 seasons. I
broke down Mets minor league park effects over the past 5 seasons here,
but I don’t have the same data required to get that info for Citi-Field
downloaded yet (it takes a lot of time on my old and slow computer) for a
comparison. Still, major league teams are getting more advanced with their shifting
every year – both major and minor shifts – while shifting is still often
nonexistent in the minors, especially for a hitter like Rivera. My point is,
here’s a fringe-average speed guy who has consistently had success on groundballs
like a plus speed guy, and who also appears to get a good portion of his surplus
offensive value from that success, as you can see in Table 2, so how productive
will he be if/when the transition to the major leagues neutralizes some of that
surplus value?
Table 2 – T.J. Rivera’s 2015 splits by Batted Ball Type
Batted Ball Type
|
PA
|
wOBA
|
LG wOBA
|
EL, FB
|
58
|
.327
|
.367
|
EL, GB
|
98
|
.296
|
.236
|
EL, LD
|
42
|
.804
|
.750
|
PCL, FB
|
28
|
.258
|
.389
|
PCL, GB
|
83
|
.269
|
.239
|
PCL, LD
|
38
|
.832
|
.771
|
T.J.
was also considerably better than league average on line drives, but he’s been more
than twice as likely to hit the ball on the ground in his minor league career,
and MiLB line drive rates are much less correlated to MLB line drive rates than
groundball rates and are more
volatile from year-to-year at all levels. If I hadn’t noticed this until I saw
the stat page information, I’d probably just be marking it as something to keep
an eye on moving forward, but in this case the stats are backing up my previously stated observations. Looking at Table 3 and his AA/AAA Spray
Chart comparison, we can get a better idea of how his batted balls were
distributed over the past two seasons.
Table 3 – T.J. Rivera’s AA and AAA splits by Field direction
Field
|
PA
|
%
|
wOBA
|
LG wOBA*
|
GB%
|
FB%
|
LD%
|
PU%
|
PCL Center
|
40
|
25.2
|
.305
|
.384
|
45
|
25
|
30
|
0
|
PCL Oppo
|
42
|
26.4
|
.249
|
.299
|
33.3
|
26.2
|
19
|
21.4
|
PCL Pull
|
77
|
48.4
|
.521
|
.450
|
63
|
9.6
|
26
|
1.4
|
EL ’15 Center
|
68
|
32.2
|
.379
|
.376
|
53
|
28.8
|
18.2
|
3
|
EL ’15 Oppo
|
66
|
31.3
|
.325
|
.262
|
24.6
|
36.9
|
29.2
|
9.2
|
EL ’15 Pull
|
77
|
36.5
|
.473
|
.418
|
57.1
|
22.1
|
15.6
|
5.2
|
EL ’14 Center
|
50
|
23.8
|
.347
|
.387
|
36
|
48
|
12
|
4
|
EL ’14 Oppo
|
65
|
31
|
.435
|
.294
|
36.9
|
32.2
|
23.1
|
7.7
|
EL ’14 Pull
|
95
|
45.2
|
.423
|
.407
|
56.4
|
16
|
22.3
|
5.3
|
*RHB only
I
think it’s fair to say that Rivera is a good pull hitter, but his success on
balls in play to the rest of the field has been BABIP dependent. That high pop
out rate behind 2B in the PCL stands out, so it’s something I will be keeping
an eye on when he goes back there to start 2016, though it could just be a
small sample size fluke. It seemed like he was hitting the ball into the LF
corner or down the line nearly every game after his promotion to Las Vegas, so
that cluster of hits in that area on the PCL side is no artifact. He became
more of an all-field hitter upon his second exposure to AA pitching, so I’ll be
keeping an eye on his hit distribution as he returns to the PCL this year. My
only concern with respect to his pull rate is that major league teams catch on
quickly to what a batter is best at, and he’s not exactly pulling these balls
out of the park. Of course, batted ball splits are not the only ones we’re
curious in, so let’s take a look at his L/R splits in Table 4.
Table 4 – T.J. Rivera’s 2015 splits by pitcher handedness
Split
|
PA
|
BB%
|
K%
|
wRC+
|
GB%
|
SwStr%
|
Wh/Sw
|
EL vs. LHP
|
63
|
4.8
|
9.5
|
135
|
41.5
|
8.1
|
16.1
|
EL vs. RHP
|
183
|
5.5
|
8.7
|
137
|
47.1
|
7.1
|
14
|
PCL vs. LHP
|
54
|
3.7
|
14.8
|
97
|
53.7
|
7.3
|
14.6
|
PCL vs. RHP
|
142
|
3.5
|
12
|
113
|
49.6
|
8.8
|
16.7
|
As
you can see, Rivera did not show any big splits in 2015, which is in line with
his career trend. He’s had mostly minor differences in success against lefties
and righties throughout his minor league career, and no stat has been
consistently better against lefties or righties. If/when Rivera gets his chance
at the major league level, he’s almost certainly going to be limited to a bench
role, so it’s important that he’s able to come off the bench, battle, and have
success facing a pitcher one time a game. With that in mind, let’s look at how
his splits break down by times facing a pitcher, as shown in Table 5.
Table 5 – T.J. Rivera’s 2015 splits by Times Faced
Split*
|
PA
|
BB%
|
K%
|
wRC+
|
GB%
|
SwStr%
|
Wh/Sw
|
EL, 1
|
143
|
7
|
9.1
|
155
|
45.3
|
7
|
14.1
|
EL, 2
|
58
|
3.4
|
8.6
|
109
|
41.2
|
6.2
|
11.8
|
EL, 3
|
41
|
2.4
|
9.8
|
105
|
55.9
|
11.8
|
22.2
|
PCL, 1
|
113
|
2.7
|
13.3
|
110
|
46.2
|
9.8
|
19
|
PCL, 2
|
44
|
6.8
|
15.9
|
117
|
59.4
|
5.5
|
11.4
|
PCL, 3
|
35
|
2.9
|
8.6
|
110
|
55.2
|
7.7
|
13.8
|
*League, times facing a pitcher in the game
Not
really any consistent trends shown in Table 5 or throughout his career, but
he’s never had a wRC+ below 99 the first time facing a pitcher in the game,
which is not true about subsequent PA’s facing a pitcher in the game. Part of
that can be attributed to the facing a lot of poor relief pitchers at the lower
levels of the minors, and it’s probably not a very predictive split, but it’s
still better to see that a potential future pinch-hitter has consistently been
successful the first time seeing a guy in a game.
I’ve
highlighted several potential red flags in his performance above, but if he
were flawless as a player, he wouldn’t be fighting for an eventual bench spot somewhere
and his first taste of major league life at the age of 27. Still, do I think he
can help the Mets? Yes, but not as much as some of the other Mets options. My
guess is that Rivera’s career ends up somewhere between that of Anthony
Seratelli’s – a life-time minor leaguer who was passed over for several
opportunities due to his advanced age – and the New York Mets version of Justin
Turner – a 2B/3B bench player, who fills in as the emergency SS and is
reasonably productive at the plate. He’s a better defender than Eric Campbell, who
didn’t have a great 2015 coming off the Mets bench, but I’d still bet on Soup’s
bat between the two. Reynolds is younger, faster, a better defender than T.J.,
and would be a more impactful bat off the bench (plus, he’s already on the
40-man). If something happens to Neil Walker, Dilson Herrera will get the
chance. Looking a little further away, while there’s no rush on Gavin Cecchini,
he will have to be moved to the 40-man for Rule-5 protection, and he’d probably
be the preferred addition to the bench by the pennant run. Like Reynolds, L.J.
Mazzilli is another younger prospect within the system who appears to have
bench upside, and he could also pass Rivera on the depth chart by September. And then there's Jeff McNeil, another bench-upside guy who is reportedly heading to AAA out of camp. So unless the Mets trade some of their bench/infield depth or injuries get bad
this year, there really isn’t a clear path to the majors with the Mets for
Rivera, and the window is closing on the few viable paths. As a result, I wouldn’t bet on
seeing him playing with a Mets jersey on in Queens. Still, he’s played well enough at the upper levels of the
minor leagues that he’ll get Spring Training invites over the next few seasons,
and he could definitely win a bench spot for a team without much bench/infield
depth.
GIFs
Jupiter on February 25th. Finally a night not rendered useless by abysmal seeing conditions! #Jupiter #astronomy pic.twitter.com/IvCWfzn2SV— Damian Peach (@peachastro) March 3, 2016
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