2015 Splits Review: Robert Gsellman

2015 with St. Lucie: 6-0, 8 GS, 51 IP, 1.76 RA/1.76 ERA/2.80 FIP/2.96 xFIP, 37 H, 10 R, 0.18 HR/9, 37 K: 11 BB (18.9 K%: 5.6 B%), 55 ERA-/87 FIP-/92 xFIP-, 82.7 LOB%, 7 2B, 3B, HR, 61 wRC+, 60.4 GB%: 24.3 FB%: 9 LD%: 6.2 PU%, 1.53 GO/AO, 2.9% HR/FB, Runners went 2-6 on stolen base attempts, with 4 pickoffs credited to Gsellman

2015 with Binghamton (including playoffs): 7-7, 17 GS, 96.2 IP, 4.56 RA/3.54 ERA/3.62 FIP/3.86 xFIP, 98 H, 49 R (38 ER), 0.37 HR/9, 54 K: 29 BB (13.1 K%: 7.1 BB%), 96 ERA-/98 FIP-/105 xFIP-, 64.5 LOB%, 12 2B, 3 3B, 4 HR, 87 wRC+, 51.4 GB%: 23.8 FB%: 16 LD%: 8.8 PU%, 1.06 GO/AO, 5.3% HR/FB, 15.3 P/IP, 6.3 SwStr%, 14.3 Whiff/Swing, Runners went 5-9 on stolen base attempts with 1 pickoff credited to Gsellman

22-year old Robert Gsellman has been on a steady rise through the minors since the team drafted him with the 402^nd overall pick in the 2011 draft (13^th round), and now finds himself as one of the top pitching prospects within the system. That’s mostly because Gsellman had a big year in 2015, which saw him dominate the FSL for the first half and then put up a strong second half with Binghamton, but also because the Mets trades last July emptied out much of the SP depth within the system – I ranked him the #4 starting pitcher prospect left after Matz was promoted last year, and then the three guys ahead of him were traded. Gsellman’s strikeout and runs allowed numbers with the B-Mets aren’t good, but he held EL batters to an 87 wRC+ last year, and his stuff is better than those strikeout numbers suggest. Gsellman’s most commonly thrown pitch is a low-90’s sinker that has some great sinking motion, which has allowed Gsellman to post great groundball rates throughout the minors, but that Gsellman relies on too much. His best pitch is a beautiful and big curveball that sits in the upper 70’s and generally ranks as one of the best pitches in the Mets system, although there was a recent negative report on it. After seeing him multiple times in the FSL, Jeff Moore of BP wrote of the curve, “already an above-average major league pitch, has the potential to be a legitimate plus offering,” but then BA wrote the following in their 2016 Prospect Guidebook, “A long arm action prevents Gsellman from repeating his release point, so his curveball grades as below-average.” That doesn’t jive with what I’ve seen at all, as Gsellman has shown great control of the curve, and induces a lot of swinging strikes with the pitch, which is why I think he would benefit from using it more often. His repertoire is rounded out with a potentially average changeup that he pounds the bottom of the zone with. Below I take a look at some trends from his 2015 numbers, and then share links to a bunch of Gsellman GIF’s posted at Astromets Mind the past two season, as well as some youtube video’s of Gsellman.

Robert Gsellman's AA spray chart vs. RHB (on left) and vs. LHB (on right)

Table 1 – Robert Gsellman 2015 Splits by Month

Month	TBF	H	BB%	K%	ERA-	FIP-	xFIP-	wRC+	GB%	SS%	W/S
April	89	17	6.7	20.2	67	85	94	81	68.9	-	-
FSL May	107	20	4.7	17.8	47	88	90	45	54.2	-	-
EL May	21	8	9.5	28.6	367	136	89	220	38.5	7.8	22.9
June	129	29	10.1	15.5	87	99	108	89	47.4	6.3	14.4
July	128	25	4.7	8.6	53	96	109	48	57.4	4.4	9.7
August	86	17	2.3	11.6	70	88	89	35	51.5	7.1	14.7
September	47	19	12.8	14.9	235	112	128	223	48.5	9.4	22.1

SS% = Swinging Strike%, W/S = Whiff/Swing

Table 2 – Robert Gsellman 2015 Platoon Splits

LG	Bats	TBF	Pull%	H	AB/XBH	BB%	K%	wRC+	GB%	SS%	W/S
FSL	L	72	40	17	34	4.2	19.4	67	65.5	-	-
FSL	R	124	37.8	20	16.1	6.5	18.5	58	57.3	-	-
EL	L	213	34.4	48	23.5	8	14.6	77	48.1	6.7	15.1
EL	R	198	48.8	50	16.7	6.1	11.6	98	54.7	6	13.4

There is a mix of usable and unusable pitch log information available from the FSL, and I haven’t sorted out the unusable yet, so I’m just omitting all pitch log info from the FSL for now, which is why I’ve put dashes in a few table cells. Table 1 helps show that Gsellman was actually very good for most of his time in AA, but happened to have a couple of bad starts, one when he first got there and then another to finish the season. Gsellman’s game is pitching to contact and looking to end an AB in as few pitches as possible, preferably by inducing a groundball, so his teams infield defense is going to be key. The B-Mets middle infield committed a lot of errors in 2015 – 28 from Gavin Cecchini and 13 from L.J. Mazzilli in his half a season – and Gsellman was hurt by the errors more than most B-Mets starters, as you can see by the 9 unearned runs allowed. He was also significantly better with the bases empty during his time in Binghamton (.253 wOBA allowed with the bases empty), which probably explains the lower than average LOB%. Thanks to his approach and big sinker, he hasn’t shown big platoon splits yet in the minors, and could end up better against lefties if his changeup keeps developing.

Table 3 – Robert Gsellman 2015 Splits by Batted Ball Type

League	Batted Ball Type	TBF	BABIP	LG BABIP	wOBA	LG wOBA
FSL	FB	35	.147	.261	.224	.339
FSL	GB	89	.258	.243	.268	.239
FSL	LD	13	.615	.757	.649	.805
EL	FB	76	.153	.264	.282	.367
EL	GB	173	.256	.247	.241	.236
EL	LD	51	.765	.705	.777	.750

Table 4 – Robert Gsellman 2015 Splits by Times Through the Order

League	Bats	TBF	H	AB/XBH	BB%	K%	wRC+	GB%	SwStr%	Wh/Sw
FSL	1	72	15	23.3	2.8	13.9	45	65.5	-	-
FSL	2	71	7	20	9.9	23.9	35	70.5	-	-
FSL	3	50	14	16	4	20	120	41	-	-
EL	1	155	32	23.5	6.5	14.2	67	64.7	7	15.2
EL	2	151	38	19.7	7.3	13.2	92	48.7	6.5	14.7
EL	3	102	28	15	7.8	10.8	117	37.3	4.9	11.7

Gsellman limited damage on fly balls last year because he allowed pull side fly balls less than 15% of the time to both lefties and righties, and pull side is obviously the power side. Given his stuff and penchant for attacking the bottom of the strike zone, he should be able to maintain his high groundball rate and continue to limit damage on fly balls, which is at least a 5^th starter in the major league. He could make a bigger impact if he uses his strikeout stuff more wisely, but it’s not as important that Gsellman puts up big strikeout numbers as it is important that he can throw strikeout stuff when the situation calls. With Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, and then Seth Lugo, I noticed a pattern in their minor league pitch usage at AA and AAA that Gsellman hasn’t shown yet: they rarely threw their curve or change the first time through the order, and then broke it out with more frequency the rest of their outing, which kept them effective later in the game. I’ll be tracking his pitch usage more closely this season, but I expect to see this pattern develop for Gsellman too.

Overall, Gsellman isn’t the stud that the recent top Mets pitching prospects were, but he’s still a promising young arm. I think his most likely outcome is more in the #4 quality starter range, but I am ready to upgrade that if he starts attacking with his curve more and/or the change becomes more consistent. He uses a low effort delivery, so he shouldn’t be a big injury risk, and he finishes in a good fielding position – I’ve included a few fielding GIF’s below as well for your viewing pleasure. I expect he’ll start the year back in AA and end up in AAA around midseason, but he’ll have to earn it, as the Mets handling of Gabriel Ynoa last year suggests they won’t promote him just because he’s thrown x number of innings at the level. He was added to the Mets 40-man roster this past season, so there is some time-related pressure for him to prove capable against AA and AAA batters, but he’s not exactly going to break through to the Mets rotation anytime soon. Because of this, while the Mets might not want to keep trading their SP depth from the minors, Gsellman will be one of the Mets best trading chips over the next few trading seasons, so he may end up debuting with another team, and is surely to be the centerpiece of too many fan trade proposals.

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Friday, March 18, 2016

2015 Splits Review: Robert Gsellman

2015 Astromets Mind Coverage

Some Other Online Video Coverage of Gsellman

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