2015 Split and Coverage Review: Gabriel Ynoa

2015 Stats with Binghamton: 25 G (24 GS), 154.2 IP, 654 TBF, 4.31 RA/4.07 ERA/4.29 FIP/3.93 xFIP, 0.93 HR/9, 163 H, 74 R (70 ER), 85 K: 34 BB (13 K%: 5.2 BB%), 71.4 LOB%, 111 ERA-/117 FIP-/107 xFIP-, 37 2B, 9 3B, 16 HR, allowed 4 stolen bases on 11 attempts with 3 pickoffs, 112 wRC+, .290 BABIP, .171 ISO, 46.4 GB%: 29.3 FB%: 16.7 LD%: 7.7 PU%, 10.5% HR/FB, 7.5 SwStr%, 16.1 Whiff/Swing

2016 will be a very important season for Mets prospect Gabriel Ynoa, because while he’s still a young and promising starting pitcher prospect, he hasn’t had much success as a starter since joining AA mid-way through the 2014 season, and the Mets will be burning his 2^nd option year (of 3) this upcoming season. Considering the running countdown for the Mets to start using him at the major league level, a switch to the bullpen seems inevitable, but at least some scouts still think he’s a back-end starter. From Baseball America’s 2016 Prospect Guidebook, “He exhibits control of his emotions and stands poised on the mound, which coupled with a three-pitch mix could make him a future No. 4 starter.” The problem with this comment is that he hasn’t shown a consistent third pitch yet – something BA concedes by saying, “he would begin to miss more bats if he can generate more action on his mid-80’s slider” – and the Mets can’t wait forever. He’s put up elite control numbers in the minors, with a walk rate below 5% (or 2 BB/9-innings, if you prefer that) at every stop in the system, but he gets knocked for missing his spots within the zone. He’s been a bit of a workhorse since reaching AA, throwing more than 6 IP in 17 of 36 appearances with the B-Mets, but his ERA and FIP have been 10+% below EL average, and he’s been held under 4 strikeouts in 20 of those starts. At this point, the overall package looks like a future fastball/changeup reliever with good control, who could probably be used for multiple innings at a time – think former Mets starting prospect turned reliever Gonzalez Germen. Below I quickly review his 2015 by looking at some splits, and then share links to all Astromets Mind coverage of Ynoa from last year, specifically: links to the game coverage, final line for each game, and all GIF’s of Ynoa from each game. I covered 18 of his 25 appearances last year, so there’s plenty to explore below, though I would’ve had more if his turn in the rotation lined up better!

Table 1 – Gabriel Ynoa 2015 Splits by Month

Month	TBF	H	BB%	K%	ERA-	FIP-	xFIP-	wRC+	GB%	SS%	W/S
April	77	21	10.4	9.1	132	147	129	143	50.8	6.5	15.7
May	134	32	6.7	14.2	126	121	109	120	48	8.2	17.9
June	127	32	2.4	7.9	120	110	114	104	47.7	6.3	13.1
July	135	25	1.5	17.8	53	67	80	20	48.1	8.8	17.3
August	115	34	4.3	10.4	115	120	117	142	42.3	5.8	12.6
September	66	19	10.6	19.7	179	208	108	211	37.8	9.1	22.1

SS% = Swinging Strike%, W/S = Whiff/Swing

After 7 shutout innings with 0 walks allowed during his first start, Ynoa allowed 12 walks over his next 3 starts (15.2 IP), but then would allow fewer than 2 walks in 14 of his final 21 appearances. After 10 starts he found himself in a bad spot by the numbers, with a 5.72 ERA and 69 hits allowed over his first 56.2 IP. But then fortunes changed and he went on a great 8-start stretch from mid-June until the end of July, allowing a 1.84 ERA/2.91 FIP over 58.2 IP, with only 46 base runners reaching against him (41 hits, 4 walks, 1 HBP) during the span. He still only struck out 14.2% of batters faced during the span, and was aided by a .216 BABIP allowed, but it was one of the most impressive runs of consistently pitching deep into the game with great control you’ll see at the AA level. He then finished the season as inconsistently as he started, allowing multiple walks in each of his final 4 starts, as well as a 5.03 ERA, and 53 hits in his final 39.1 IP (poor playoff start included).

Table 2 – Gabriel Ynoa 2015 Platoon Splits

Bats	TBF	H	AB/XBH	BB%	K%	wRC+	GB%	SwStr%	Wh/Sw
L	304	84	7.8	6.2	11.2	149	37.6	6.9	14.4
R	350	79	12.5	4.3	14.6	80	54.2	8	17.7

Considering Ynoa’s best secondary pitch is a changeup, you’d expect him to have more neutral platoon splits, but lefties have had a big advantage against Ynoa the past two seasons. To me, this is further evidence that he’d be better off in the bullpen, but trends can change if Ynoa develops that third pitch.

Table 3 – Gabriel Ynoa 2015 Splits by Times Through the Order

Bats	TBF	H	AB/XBH	BB%	K%	wRC+	GB%	SwStr%	Wh/Sw
1	238	64	8.7	2.5	13.9	127	48	7.8	17.3
2	220	51	10.9	7.3	13.2	99	49.1	6	13.1
3	177	43	10.2	6.8	11.3	111	39	8.9	18.3

Ynoa had better success against batters the second time through the order, but both his Whiff/Swing and BB% went in the wrong direction. His BABIP allowed was consistent for all 3 splits, but batters hit 11 homeruns off of Ynoa the first time through the order (16 HR allowed for the season), which accounts for most of the gap in offensive production.

He is in camp with the Mets this Spring, and the Mets do have a reputation for teaching their young starters the “Warthen Slider,” not to mention the Johan Santana two-seamer and changeup that Jacob deGrom was taught a few Springs back, so there’s always hope he leaves camp with something new to work with, but hope doesn’t get outs in the majors. He flashed a curveball at times last year, and the pitch showed promise, but that means nothing unless he starts using it consistently. Assuming he doesn’t improve his third offering heading into the season, I worry about how his stuff will translate to the PCL this year. It’s a high offense league, with many high elevation parks, so fly balls tend to fly further and do more damage in the PCL. Ynoa's fastball lives up in the zone too often, so he gives up a higher than average rate of fly balls, and EL batters did a lot of damage against him on fly balls the past two seasons (see stat page if interested). Additionally, his low walk and strikeout rates mean that a higher than average percentage of PA’s end on batter contact. In total, he gives up more contact, more fly balls, and perhaps more damage on fly balls than average, so the stats say he’s really not well suited to pitch in the PCL.

Although the conclusions are different, the 2016 reports on Ynoa are not very different from the 2014 reports on him, which is basically the problem. Gabriel Ynoa is only going to be 22 when the season starts (his birthday is May 26^th), so he’d still be relatively young for AA if he was just starting there this season, but for reasons beyond his control the pressure is mounting for him to prove major league ready. If the Mets didn’t have to worry about minor league free agency, Rule 5 drafts, and option years, they could even leave him to develop as a starter at Binghamton another year, although I’d probably be advocating the increased challenge of AAA after 35 starts at AA anyway. Given the circumstances, and without evidence to suggest he’s improved his third offering, I think Ynoa to the bullpen is going to happen this season. If I’m wrong and he has a great first half starting for Las Vegas, I think he becomes one of the Mets best trade chips from the minors at the deadline, and arguably the most tradable asset in the minors given the Mets starting pitching. There are plenty GIF examples of Ynoa showing off good stuff below, the question is, can he finally be that guy with more consistency in 2016?

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Saturday, March 12, 2016

2015 Split and Coverage Review: Gabriel Ynoa

Astromets 2015 Coverage – 18 of 25 Gabriel Ynoa appearances

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