2015 Splits-plus: The Skinny on Seth Lugo

Lugo broke onto the scene in a big way last year and is looking like another promising late-bloomer for the Mets

2015 with B-Mets: 19 GS, 109 IP, 4.46 RA/3.80 ERA/3.41 FIP/3.34 xFIP, 466 TBF, 97 SO: 30 BB (20.8 K%: 6.4 BB%), 108 H, 54 R (46 ER), 0.66 HR/9, 103 ERA-/92 FIP-/91 xFIP-, 67.5 LOB%, 22 2B, 7 3B, 8 HR, allowed 4-8 on stolen bases, .310 BABIP, .141 ISO, 99 wRC+, 42.5 GB%: 30 FB%: 19.9 LD%: 7.6 PU%, 8.2% HR/FB, 9.2 SwStr%, 20.1 Whiff/Swing

2015 with Las Vegas 51s: 5 GS, 27 IP, 4.33 RA/4.00 ERA/3.60 FIP/3.23 xFIP, 114 TBF, 30 SO: 5 BB (26.3 K%: 4.4 BB%), 27 H, 13 R (12 ER), 1 HR/9, 92 ERA-/82 FIP-/74 xFIP-, 70.5 LOB%, .324 BABIP, .112 ISO, 74 wRC+, 42.7 GB%: 28 FB%: 21.3 LD%: 8 PU%, 14.3% HR/FB, 9.3 SwStr%, 19.4 Whiff/Swing

The emergence of Seth Lugo as a legit starting prospect was easily the most pleasant surprise for me from the Mets system in 2015. When he made the Binghamton 6-man rotation out of Spring Training, I figured he was just filling the role until Michael Fulmer came back, but then he made a brilliant first start, and then he looked just as nasty in his second start, and I quickly caught on: this guy could pitch. He’s usually around 90 MPH with his fastball, but he would dial it up as high as 95-96 MPH at times last year. His best pitch is a nice, big curve that sits in the 76-78 MPH range, and Baseball America scouts love – from their 2016 Prospect Guidebook, “…the best breaking ball on the farm: a plus, mid-70’s curveball with tight spin and late break.” He also mixes in a changeup (mid-80’s), although there wasn’t much of a velocity separation from the fastball, and an improving slider. Unless he’s throwing the curveball or mid-90’s heat, Lugo’s stuff doesn’t scream swing-and-miss, but it all plays up thanks to his excellent command. I covered 22 of his 24 starts here at Astromets Mind, and I’ve linked to all of my coverage at the bottom of this page, where I’ve also included: his final line for each game covered, all of the Lugo pitch GIF links posted on those pages (60+ in total), and strikeout details where available when I had no GIF’s. There’s a lot about Seth Lugo’s 2015 down there, because I was fortunate enough to get a lot of good coverage of him last year, so go nuts. Before I leave you to have fun searching through the GIF’s and other info at the bottom, let’s review some trends from his 2015 splits.

Table 1 – Seth Lugo 2015 Splits by Month

Month	TBF	H	BB%	K%	ERA-	FIP-	xFIP-	wRC+	GB%	SS%	W/S
April	54	13	3.7	24.1	38	53	70	84	59.5	12.2	26.3
May	129	28	5.4	22.5	93	93	82	89	42.9	7	15.7
June	104	29	6.7	12.5	192	119	121	143	32.5	6.9	15.4
July	153	30	7.2	24.2	65	82	82	68	47.5	11.4	23.4
EL August	26	8	11.6	19.2	245	154	137	192	22.2	9.1	23.1
PCL August	95	23	3.2	28.4	81	54	62	58	45.2	9.8	19.4
September	19	4	10.5	15.8	155	248	139	156	30.8	7	19.2

SS% = Swinging Strike%, W/S = Whiff/Swing

One trend that stands out breaking things down by month is that Lugo’s ERA success was dependent on his GB%. After using his curveball in any count during his first two great starts of the season, it seemed like he was using it less for awhile, and that might explain his dip in Whiff/Swing rate during May and June. Those rates were average for the season, but above average in April, July, August, and September. He had 20 strikeouts over 12 innings in back-to-back starts with Las Vegas in August, making some good Rangers and Marlins prospects look awful in the process, and the transition to the PCL look a little too easy. Overall, Seth Lugo went from afterthought to top of the Mets starting pitching depth in 2015, and I’m excited to see if he can go out and do it again in 2016.

Table 2 – Seth Lugo 2015 Platoon Splits

League	Bats	TBF	H	AB/XBH	BB%	K%	wRC+	GB%	SwStr%	Wh/Sw
EL	L	208	50	14.5	8.2	17.8	101	42.4	8.3	18.1
EL	R	258	58	9.9	5	23.3	97	42.6	10	21.8
PCL	L	54	15	12.5	7.4	18.5	105	47.5	7.3	15
PCL	R	60	12	28.5	1.7	33.3	46	37.1	11.3	24

Lugo’s stuff is capable of getting both sides out, but lefties will have an edge against him until his changeup improves. Unless he starts sitting at 95 MPH instead of topping out there – in which case, hello Jacob deGrom 2.0 – or he only throws changeups after his fastest fastballs, Lugo’s changeup is only about 5 MPH slower than his fastball. Speed differential isn’t everything for a changeup, and every pitcher’s changeup takes time to personalize (read former Mets pitcher Brian Bannister’s thoughts on personalizing a changeup here), but Lugo’s changeup needs work. I hope he’s had a chance to work on his changeup with some of the guys in camp, because there are some good ones on the major league squad, but most of all I hope he’s had a chance to work with Big Sexy Bartolo Colon. Colon makes it working without throwing max velocity all the time (even if max velocity ain’t what it used to be), and while his changeup doesn’t have a big speed differential, he’s still had more success against lefties the past couple of seasons.

Table 3 – Seth Lugo 2015 Splits by Times Through the Order

League	Bats	TBF	H	AB/XBH	BB%	K%	wRC+	GB%	SwStr%	Wh/Sw
EL	1	175	40	12.2	6.9	17.7	100	42.5	6.8	16.2
EL	2	159	34	10.4	5.7	21.4	91	45.5	9.6	19.9
EL	3	127	33	11.8	5.5	24.4	103	39.8	12.4	25
PCL	1	47	7	46*	2.1	34	-7	44.8	9	19
PCL	2	43	12	9.5	9.3	23.3	145	42.9	10.6	23.3
PCL	3	24	8	23**	0	16.7	107	38.9	7.2	13.6

*1 Homerun allowed

**1 Double allowed

When attempting to judge whether a prospect can make it as a starting pitcher, one important thing to track is whether a pitcher’s stuff becomes less effective as the start go on, so Table 3 is very nice to have available to us. It can’t replace a scouts eye telling us if his stuff looks as sharp later in the game, but these numbers do give an accurate representation of how effective a pitcher was each time through the batting order. His numbers with Las Vegas represent an unreliably small sample size, but I haven’t added a season’s total row to the stat sheets and I didn’t want to leave the info out.

Overall there are no big red flags in Table 4 to suggest he lost effectiveness later in the start, which is great for his chances as a starter. One trend that stands out is his improved SwStr% and Wh/Sw the 2^nd and 3^rd time through the order, and I think I know why. As I vaguely mentioned above, his curveball usage seemed to drop for a stretch after those initial 2 starts, but then I started noticing a pattern: Lugo was waiting to use the curveball more the 2^nd and 3^rd time through the order. Of course! Because this is exactly how the Mets had Syndergaard and Matz pitch in the minors the past two seasons, and my theory is that Lugo showed the Mets enough in those two starts to make them change his developmental plan. Even though he was somewhat of a piggyback starter with St. Lucie in 2014, he made only 4 starts, and then he started 2015 as the 6^th man in a rotation with a spot reserved for Michael Fulmer, so I don’t think even the Mets saw his breakout coming.

Lugo recently said that he’d welcome a move to the bullpen if that got him to the show quicker, but with little proven starter depth at AAA, he’s arguably the Mets 6^th starter until Zach Wheeler is ready – Duane Below is the expendable 6^th starter option, aka the guy who gets called up to start and then be DFA’d. In any event, he has good control of 4 pitches that BA said could end up at least average, with a current plus curve among them, so I think it's best to let him develop further starting at AAA for now. That said, I’m always curious how much of that max speed transfers to consistent speed when a pitcher moves to the pen, and his curve would be a devastating combo if mixed with mid-90’s heat. Considering the range of velocities Lugo’s fastball is known to hit, I hope to get a better read on his velocity as he plays in the PCL this year because there are generally more radar calls from 51s announcer Russ Langer, and the 51s scoreboard is just barely visible on the MiLB.tv feed most nights. In each post below I kept notes of what Lugo was throwing and how he was looking during each start, so if you want to learn even more about his season, dig in. If you want to just enjoy the GIF’s, that’s fine to, though I suggest you turn on hover zoom if you have it.

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Friday, March 11, 2016

2015 Splits-plus: The Skinny on Seth Lugo

2015 with Las Vegas 51s: 5 GS, 27 IP, 4.33 RA/4.00 ERA/3.60 FIP/3.23 xFIP, 114 TBF, 30 SO: 5 BB (26.3 K%: 4.4 BB%), 27 H, 13 R (12 ER), 1 HR/9, 92 ERA-/82 FIP-/74 xFIP-, 70.5 LOB%, .324 BABIP, .112 ISO, 74 wRC+, 42.7 GB%: 28 FB%: 21.3 LD%: 8 PU%, 14.3% HR/FB, 9.3 SwStr%, 19.4 Whiff/Swing

All 2015 Astromets Coverage of Seth Lugo, 22 of 24 starts

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