 |
| Josh Prevost, Sand Gnats, 2015 |
RH SP, 24
2015 with Savannah: 12 GS, 74.1 IP, 4.60 RA/3.75 ERA/3.70 FIP/3.92 xFIP, 79 H, 38 R (31 ER), 46 K: 18 BB (14.5 K%: 5.7 BB%), .268/.321/.385, .309 BABIP, .117 ISO, 65.4 LOB%, 0.36 HR/9, 99 ERA-/97 FIP-/103 xFIP-, 105 wRC+, 52.5 GB%: 22.5 FB%: 20.5 LD%: 4.5 PU%, 1.10 GO/AO, 5.5% HR/FB
The
Mets drafted the 6’8” Josh Prevost out of Seton Hall with their 5th
round pick in the 2014 draft because he was a senior sign with a projectable
sinker. They sent him straight to Brooklyn, where he got acclimated to the
minors in the Cyclones pen over 11 strong appearances. Prevost’s success was
rewarded with a rotation spot in Savannah coming out of Spring Training, but a
late May injury kept him out of the rotation for two months. The team never
announced anything about the injury last year, but I finally read it was shoulder
tendinitis back in December – “They were babying it, but that was probably
better in the long run,” said Prevost. The timing couldn’t have been worse
either, as he had allowed just 3 ER over his previous 21 IP, with 12 K: 2 BB
and 21 H allowed during that 3 start span. He would come back and win all 4 of
his decisions down the stretch with Savannah (in 5 starts), but the missed time
was unfortunate for someone already behind the ball some due to his age. Below
I look at some of the trends in Prevost’s splits from 2015 as I discuss what I
saw from him, and then share GIF’s from the 3 starts I caught on MiLB.tv.
Table 1 – Josh Prevost’s 2015 Savannah Splits by Month
Month
|
TBF
|
ERA-
|
FIP-
|
BB%
|
K%
|
wRC+
|
GB%
|
April
|
80
|
178
|
66
|
3.8
|
20
|
120
|
63.8
|
May
|
110
|
60
|
76
|
4.5
|
15.5
|
76
|
53.5
|
August
|
103
|
88
|
147
|
7.7
|
8.7
|
115
|
41
|
September
|
24
|
95
|
81
|
8.3
|
16.7
|
136
|
64.7
|
Table 2 – Josh Prevost’s 2015 Savannah Platoon Splits
Split
|
TBF
|
HR
|
BB%
|
K%
|
BABIP
|
ISO
|
wRC+
|
GB%
|
RHB
|
185
|
2
|
7.6
|
12.4
|
.291
|
.115
|
102
|
54.2
|
LHB
|
133
|
1
|
3
|
17.3
|
.350
|
.129
|
108
|
50
|
Prevost’s
best and primary weapon is his low-90’s sinker (tops at ~94 MPH), which he uses
a lot, but especially early in AB’s with hopes of inducing a groundball. When
at his best last year, he attacked the bottom of the zone so tantalizingly that
he needed just 61 pitches for a 7-inning complete game in Rome – highlights
below! That would be his last game action for nearly two months, though you
wouldn’t have guessed that he had a problem as he finished the game that day – as
he said, better safe than sorry. He supplements the sinker with low-80’s slider
and changeup, with the slider showing better potential when I saw him.
Table 3 – Josh Prevost’s 2015 Savannah Splits by Batted Ball
Type
Type
|
TBF
|
BABIP
|
SAL BABIP
|
wOBA
|
SAL wOBA
|
FB
|
55
|
.132
|
.189
|
.245
|
.341
|
GB
|
133
|
.250
|
.252
|
.249
|
.243
|
LD
|
50
|
.755
|
.734
|
.809
|
.788
|
Table 4 – Josh Prevost’s 2015 Savannah Splits by Times Faced
Times Faced
|
TBF
|
HR
|
BB%
|
K%
|
BABIP
|
ISO
|
wRC+
|
GB%
|
1
|
108
|
0
|
8.3
|
14.8
|
.317
|
.092
|
100
|
53.7
|
2
|
108
|
1
|
5.6
|
13
|
.298
|
.102
|
92
|
54.8
|
3
|
89
|
2
|
2.2
|
15.7
|
.343
|
.169
|
126
|
50.7
|
Prevost
went at least 5 IP in all 12 of his starts for Savannah last year, and he went
through the order 3 times nearly every time out too. His height and lanky arms
help Prevost get a lot of sinking action on his fastball, so it’s no surprise
SAL batters had little success on fly balls against Prevost. But when I saw him
face the River Dogs in late April, he was leaving the sinker up, and those
Charleston batters were lining it all over the park – that was a very deep team
at the time – which is how he got through 6 innings on 68 pitches despite
allowing 8 hits.
As
a starter, Prevost’s overall package makes me think Mike Pelfrey-lite, he’s
just waiting for someone to teach him a splitter. As a reliever, he reminds me
of another Mets prospect who is actually still in camp as of this writing: Zach Thornton. Thornton is a sinker heavy pitcher with a decent slider, but he’s
been a reliever his whole career, and it’s taken him far. Prevost gets more
sink on his fastball, and Thornton has had a high K-rate his whole career, so
it’s not a perfect comp, but I think Prevost will likely end up in a similar
role down the line.
One trick ponies don’t usually work
out as starters (even knuckleballer’s are rare), and without pitchFx-level
stats suggesting his sinker is that
good, it’s hard to believe it’ll be enough. His slider shows potential, but even
two-pitch pitchers are usually just pen arms. That said, pitchFx stats wouldn’t
really be able to capture the
deception his 6’8” frame adds when he pitches, and that’s a big part of his
game. Plus, he could always learn another pitch to supplement his sinker as he
advances, like a splitter or Warthen slider. There’s no rush to move him to the
pen this year either, especially since he can go deep into games without a high pitch count, so
I expect him to start all year with St. Lucie.
Astromets Mind Coverage
Galileo with his telescope in the Piazza San Marco, Venice; wood engraving (n.d.) @wellcomeimages. pic.twitter.com/SfkBUGYns4— History of Astronomy (@HistAstro) March 19, 2016
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