Nimmo entered the 2015 season with a retooled
swing that was supposed to help him turn on the inside pitch for more
power, but he then failed to match his 2014 ISO and HR rates, so will power
ever be a big part of his game, or will he be limited to a table-setter’s role?
2015 with Binghamton: 68 G, 302 PA, .279/.354/.368, 26 R, 12
2B, 3 3B, 2 HR, 16 RBI, 55 K: 26 BB (18.2 K%: 8.6 BB%), .343 BABIP, .089 ISO,
111 wRC+, 45.5 GB%: 23.9 FB%: 23.5 LD%: 7 PU%, 8.2 SwStr%, 17.7% Whiff/Swing,
4.05 P/PA, 15.8 AB/XBH, 27.3 HR/FB, 0-2 on stolen bases
2015 with Las Vegas: 32 G, 112 PA, .264/.393/.418, 19 R, 3
2B, 3B, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 20 K: 18 BB (17.9 K%: 16.1 BB%), .304 BABIP, .154 ISO, 121
wRC+, 56.3 GB%: 15.5 FB%: 22.5 LD%: 5.6 PU%, 9.3 SwStr%, 22% Whiff/Swing, 4.41
P/PA, 13 AB/XBH, 27.3% HR/FB, 5-9 on stolen bases
The
question above is one of several that has followed Brandon Nimmo since the Mets
selected him with the 13th overall pick in the 2011 draft, which was
a controversial pick considering how raw and untested Nimmo was at the time.
The Mets have molded him into an impressive, yet still somewhat raw, prospect in
the nearly 5 years since, and he enters 2016 as a 23-year old in AAA who is
still playing CF – whether he will stick in CF is another question that’s
followed him, and he did see some time in RF last year. He’s on the Mets
40-man, but the Mets outfield situation is very full at the major league level,
and he’ll have a couple of expendable teammates on the 51s (Roger Bernadina and
Travis Taijeron), so there is neither the expectation nor the need for him to
help the Mets this year. That’s obviously a good thing since he needs more
development time, but also because it should help keep Mets fans (particularly
#MetsTwitter) off his back and out of his head this year. Unfortunately, there
have been few updates on him since it was reported that he had a tear of the
posterior tibial tendon in his left foot a
month ago, so he’ll likely start the season late due to his first injury of
2016 – his health is another one of those questions that’s followed him. The
projections for Nimmo range from platoon outfielder to everyday center fielder,
but either could have a role on the 2017 Mets if he doesn’t stumble this year. From
what I’ve seen, he’s still got enough speed to steal a few infield hits and
handle CF with average range, but he looked like a potential plus defender
during the small sample of games he played in RF, and he should get a chance to
show off his underrated arm there more often. Below I take a look at some of
his trends from 2015, and then share a bunch of 2015 GIF’s of Nimmo hitting,
running, or tracking down the ball in the outfield.
 |
| Brandon Nimmo's 2015 Spray chart vs. LHP (on left) and vs. RHP (on right) |
 |
| Distribution of the pitch count that Brandon Nimmo's PA's ended on in 2015 |
Table 1 – Brandon Nimmo 2015 Splits by Month
Month
|
PA
|
AB/XBH
|
BB%
|
K%
|
wRC+
|
GB%
|
P/PA
|
SwStr%
|
Wh/Sw
|
April
|
85
|
10.6
|
10.6
|
18.8
|
132
|
40.7
|
4.47
|
8.4
|
19.3
|
May
|
70
|
16
|
4.3
|
17.1
|
122
|
39.2
|
4.36
|
8.5
|
16.2
|
June
|
51
|
15.7
|
7.8
|
23.5
|
90
|
48.6
|
3.37
|
10.5
|
22.8
|
EL July
|
96
|
28
|
10.4
|
15.6
|
88
|
52.9
|
3.82
|
6.5
|
14.9
|
PCL July
|
17
|
14
|
11.8
|
17.6
|
18
|
41.7
|
4.59
|
10.3
|
21.6
|
August
|
78
|
21
|
17.9
|
17.9
|
109
|
58.3
|
4.45
|
8.9
|
21.8
|
September
|
17
|
4.7
|
11.8
|
17.6
|
268
|
63.6
|
4.06
|
10.1
|
23.3
|
Table 2 – Brandon Nimmo 2015 Splits by Pitcher Handedness
Throws
|
PA
|
AB/XBH
|
BB%
|
K%
|
wRC+
|
GB%
|
SwStr%
|
Wh/Sw
|
EL vs. L
|
66
|
59
|
7.6
|
21.2
|
90
|
57.8
|
8.2
|
18.3
|
EL vs. R
|
236
|
13.1
|
8.9
|
17.4
|
114
|
42.3
|
8.2
|
17.5
|
PCL vs. L
|
33
|
27
|
15.2
|
18.2
|
62
|
71.4
|
8
|
20.7
|
PCL vs. R
|
79
|
10.7
|
16.5
|
17.7
|
142
|
50
|
9.9
|
22.5
|
Nimmo
was off to a great start when injury struck in mid-May,
and his production felt the pain when he returned a month later. It was a small
sample, but Nimmo’s 4.41 pitches seen per plate appearance with Las Vegas
ranked third among PCL batters with 70 PA last year. He’s always been knocked
for a passive approach at the plate, and you can see from the pitch count
distribution’s that about half of his PA’s end in a 2-strike count, but note
that he puts the first pitch in play a fair amount too. He’s continued to show
L/R splits in the minors (he only reached a 100 wRC+ against LHP’s with St.
Lucie), and his groundball rates were extreme against southpaws last year.
 |
| Comparing Brandon Nimmo's 2014 and 2015 spray charts, AA and AAA only |
Table 3 – Brandon Nimmo 2015 Splits by Batted Ball Type
Type
|
PA
|
BABIP
|
LG BABIP
|
wOBA
|
LG wOBA
|
EL on FB
|
51
|
.163
|
.200
|
.290
|
.367
|
EL on GB
|
99
|
.293
|
.247
|
.279
|
.236
|
EL on LD
|
50
|
.720
|
.705
|
.729
|
.750
|
PCL on FB
|
11
|
.250
|
.187
|
.825
|
.389
|
PCL on GB
|
41
|
.195
|
.251
|
.179
|
.239
|
PCL on LD
|
16
|
.688
|
.729
|
.676
|
.771
|
Table 4 – Brandon Nimmo 2015 Splits by Batted Ball Direction
Direction
|
PA
|
%ª
|
AB/XBH
|
BABIP
|
LG BABIP*
|
wOBA
|
LG wOBA*
|
GB%
|
EL to Center
|
68
|
31.6
|
9.6
|
.368
|
.374
|
.391
|
.389
|
26.9
|
EL to Opposite
|
61
|
28.4
|
15.3
|
.377
|
.286
|
.375
|
.308
|
34.3
|
EL to Pull
|
86
|
40
|
14.3
|
.298
|
.288
|
.341
|
.373
|
68.2
|
PCL to Center
|
21
|
28.8
|
21
|
.429
|
.370
|
.410
|
.385
|
42.9
|
PCL to Opposite
|
20
|
27.4
|
9.5
|
.300
|
.336
|
.312
|
.373
|
45
|
PCL to Pull
|
32
|
43.8
|
8
|
.207
|
.300
|
.386
|
.384
|
74.2
|
*LHB only
ªHis 2014 % breakdown with the B-Mets: 28% to center, 38.8%
oppo, 33.2% pull
When I took a midseason
look at how the altered swing was working for Nimmo, I noted that even
though he wasn’t hitting for more power, it did appear like he was pulling the
ball more. The numbers in Table 4 below back that up, and Nimmo’s pull-side
production would improve over the remainder of the season, culminating in 3
homeruns and a triple pulled to RF during his month with Las Vegas. He didn’t
really pull the ball in the air more though, instead displaying some extreme
groundball rates when pulling the ball, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he starts
seeing infield shifts at AAA. The PCL has a tendency to boost a player’s
production on fly balls (see the post
on Travis Taijeron), and that obviously happened for Nimmo, but even his 51 PA
sample of fly balls with the B-Mets is too small to make any worthwhile
observations from, though his success on fly balls will be a trend I follow
when he returns to Las Vegas this season. That late season improvement could be a sign that
he had moved past the injury and started to take advantage of his new swing,
but it could also just be the PCL effect.
Overall,
given his platoon splits and limited game power to date, it’s easy to see why
some outlets project him to be a future platoon outfielder. However, scouts who
like him have pointed to his impressive batting practice power as a sign that
more game power will come. Also, the passive approach that some scouts have
complained about has led to above average walk rates at every stop, and he
should be able to maintain an above average OBP in the majors. That plays at
the top of the lineup, and while he doesn’t have the speed to steal a ton of
bases, he has enough speed to take that extra base on hits from the guys behind
him. There’s still the question of his platoon splits, but he’s kept his OBP
and BB% up against LHP’s too: his OBP was .343 across both levels in 2015, and
he has an 11.6 BB% against lefties between AA and AAA the past 2 seasons. When
I look at Nimmo’s size, I see a player who should hit for power, but watching
him play, you see that’s just not his game (yet). Because of this, while the
fan in me holds out hope that more power will develop, I think his ultimate
role is as a top of the order center fielder with a high OBP and average, at
best, ISO. That definitely plays so long as his defense in center remains
acceptable, but he’d likely be limited to a platoon role when he loses a step
and is moved to RF. Baseball America had a similar evaluation for Nimmo in their 2016 Prospect Guidebook, concluding, "Scouts question how much impact he will provide without more power, but his overall skills could make him well-suited for a table-setter role."
Astromets Mind 2015 Coverage
Thor's Helmet is an interstellar bubble 30 LYs long. The central star is in a pre-supernova stage (Wolf-Rayet star). pic.twitter.com/goFC4X2UCE— Millennium Astronomy (@astromillennium) March 9, 2016
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