 |
| Eudor Garcia (28) and Wuilmer Becerra (31) stood out when hanging around the Savannah cages last year |
When
dealing with lower level prospects, it’s really best not to focus too much on
stats, which is advice I’m obviously not following here. Wuilmer Becerra is
going to grow, both physically and as a hitter, so, for example, how many
infield hits he had in 2015 won’t matter in a year. But I’m not using this
series to make any predictive claims from stats, and I’m only comfortable
talking about Mets prospects I have at least seen on MiLB.tv anyway, so any descriptive comments I make in this series are what I think from having watched and read
about these guys. My goal with the splits is to find some trends to follow this year, trends
that support or dispute some common perceptions about the prospect, and/or trends
to suggest a player was lucky or unlucky in some batted ball designation.
2015 with Savannah (including postseason): 121 G, 500 PA, .291/.343/.423, 68 R, 28 2B, 3 3B, 9 HR, 64 RBI, 101 K: 34 BB (20.2 K%: 6.8 BB%), 17.8% Swinging Strikeout rate, .355 BABIP, .132 ISO, 118 wRC+, 53.8 GB%: 21.2 FB%: 19.5 LD%: 5.4 PU%
2015 in the VWL: 107 PA, .392/.406/.510, 20 R, 3 2B, 3 HR,
15 RBI, 14 K: 0 BB (13.1 K%: 0 BB%), .430 BABIP, .118 ISO, 153 wRC+, 50 GB%:
19.3 FB%: 21.6 LD%: 9.1 PU%
Mets
OF prospect Wuilmer Becerra is already well known to a good portion of Mets
fans as the ‘non-elite’ throw-in from the R.A. Dickey trade, but 2016 should be
the year he becomes known across baseball as a stud prospect for the team.
Among Mets position prospects, Becerra offers a unique blend of above average
speed (my present grade on him, but he's projected by many outlets to slow down to average as he develops)
and above average power, and he plays solid defense in RF with a strong arm.
He’s not without his flaws – for example, he has a tendency to chase breaking
pitches out of the zone – but I felt like he was underrated across the boards
in Mets rankings this offseason. In their 2016
Prospect Guidebook, Baseball America ranked him as the #10 Mets prospect,
saying, “Scouts who like Becerra project him as a future big league regular who
can do a bit of everything, but unless his power develops further, he might
lack a carrying tool.” I link to 18 of his hits at the bottom of this post,
including 3 homeruns and a 400+ foot triple, so you can see for yourself the
impressive power he’s capable of. From what I’ve seen, he’ll have enough power,
the question is whether he’ll make enough contact and/or learn to lay off
breaking stuff out of the zone. Last year I saw Becerra live in Rome during
May, and on MiLB.tv in April, May, August, and September, so I got to see him a
decent amount. Below I look back at some splits from his 2015 to look for some
trends to watch as he advances through full-season ball, and then share the
links to GIFs of him I posted last year. Unless he finishes the year in
Binghamton, those are probably the only MiLB.tv GIFs I’ll have of him until
2017, but I do hope to end up at a few St. Lucie games this year, so hopefully
I’ll get some live coverage of him anyway.
Table 1 – Wuilmer Becerra Splits by Month
Month
|
PA
|
AB/XBH
|
BB%
|
K%
|
wRC+
|
GB%
|
ISO
|
April
|
73
|
9.6
|
5.5
|
21.9
|
106
|
44.7
|
.209
|
May
|
108
|
9.1
|
5.6
|
21.3
|
123
|
53.8
|
.170
|
June
|
104
|
9.6
|
6.7
|
21.2
|
140
|
58.9
|
.167
|
July
|
66
|
20.3
|
7.6
|
19.7
|
131
|
57.4
|
.049
|
August
|
114
|
12.9
|
9.6
|
15.8
|
117
|
54.2
|
.097
|
September
|
35
|
34*
|
2.9
|
25.7
|
46
|
48
|
.030
|
*He had one double in September
Becerra
had a great season, but an early July leg injury appears to have sapped him of
his power down the stretch. Alternatively, BA and other sources have suggested
Becerra showed noticeable improvement laying off two-strike pitches out of the
zone late in the season, so it’s possible he was selling out some of his power
for contact later in the season. After coming back from the injury, he had 7
multi-hit games over his next 13, but only one extra base hit during that time.
Then his 15.8 K% for the month of August was a career-low for a month. However,
all but one of those strikeouts came on a swinging strike 3, so chasing was
still a big problem. It’s a minor trend still, but Becerra has shown an
improvement in his BB-rate as the season progresses over each of the past 3
seasons.
Table 2 – Wuilmer Becerra Splits by Pitcher Handedness
Throws
|
PA
|
AB/XBH
|
BB%
|
K%
|
wRC+
|
GB%
|
LHP
|
148
|
10.7
|
6.1
|
23
|
149
|
55.8
|
RHP
|
352
|
11.9
|
7.1
|
19
|
105
|
53
|
As
with all corner outfielders, if Becerra starts showing big splits, he quickly
becomes the AAAA/4th OF type. The good news is that he’s yet to have
below average production against RHP’s in the minors, and he had a lower rate
of swinging strikeouts against RHP’s with Savannah last year. Nothing else
really stands out as odd in his platoon splits, so let’s take a quick look at
his batted ball splits in Tables 3 and 4.
Table 3 – Wuilmer Becerra Splits by Batted Ball Type
Batted Ball Type*
|
PA
|
BABIP
|
SAL BABIP
|
wOBA
|
SAL wOBA
|
Fly balls
|
75
|
.152
|
.189
|
.418
|
.341
|
Groundballs
|
199
|
.318
|
.252
|
.308
|
.243
|
Line Drives
|
69
|
.754
|
.734
|
.789
|
.788
|
*Becerra went 0-19 on balls labeled pop ups
Table 4 – Wuilmer Becerra Splits by Batted Ball Direction
Batted Ball
Direction
|
PA
|
%
|
AB/XBH
|
wOBA
|
SAL wOBA*
|
GB%
|
Center
|
102
|
28.1
|
12.6
|
.417
|
.347
|
50.5
|
Opposite
|
139
|
38.3
|
15.4
|
.285
|
.281
|
44.8
|
Pull
|
122
|
33.6
|
5.3
|
.534
|
.428
|
69.7
|
*RHB only
There
are 13 games with GIFs of Wuilmer Becerra below, and he managed 4 infield
singles during that time, which puts him on a pace for ~37 infield hits over
the 121 games he played in Savannah last year, while my position splits
indicate he ended up with 34 infield hits. Of those, 26 hits came on balls hit
to the shortstop or third baseman, and he finished with a .232 average on balls
fielded by the left side of the infield – league average was about .110. I’d
credit his speed for 3 of the hits below, but the question is how much of that
speed he’ll maintain. Also, fielders are more consistent with each level, so
will he be able to steal as many hits off slight hesitations and bobbles? The
infield hit often masks weak contact with a good result, so how much of his
BABIP is inflated by a good year for infield hits? It’s definitely something to
keep an eye on this season.
I
also noticed that Becerra went the other way regularly last year, he hit the
ball in the air more often to RF, and he was better than league
average on fly balls, but his overall success on balls hit the other way was only about
league average. It makes sense that parks known for killing lefty pull power
(like Historic Grayson Stadium is), would be harsh on righty oppo power. That
doesn’t mean he’s suddenly going to improve in that area with St. Lucie, but
it’s something to keep an eye on. He was one of the best SAL hitters when pulling the ball last year, and he had a much higher extra base hit rate to the pull side, so instead of blaming the stadium, perhaps it's just a lack of opposite field power for Becerra.
Overall,
I think I’ve identified a few trends to track throughout 2016 for Becerra. Most
important to his future success is whether or not he can stop chasing out of
the zone, but I’ll also be tracking if he can maintain his success against
RHP’s, how his speed plays, and whether he finds RF at Tradition Field more
friendly to hit to. Like I said, I think his power is legit, but I think he
either needs to be pushing 20 dingers by the end of the year, or at least among
the FSL leaders to reach the prospect status I’m expecting from him – last
year’s FSL HR leader only hit 14 HR, but it was a down year for the league. At
21, he should be among the younger batters in the league this year, but this is
his 5th year as a pro so the Mets need him to have a good season. I
guess it made a splash this year when the Mets left him exposed to the Rule 5
draft, but there was no chance he would stick on a major league team all year,
and the Mets made that mistake with Cesar Puello a few years ago, and then lost
him when his option years ran out. Either way, considering his advanced service
time in the minors, I wouldn’t be surprised if he the Mets moved him to AA at
midseason so they could get a better read about protecting him next offseason.
2015 GIFs
Help me solve astronomy's greatest mystery! Please donate $10 to the Wow Signal Experiment! https://t.co/eoX0YODhFG pic.twitter.com/nBBZh5xb8j— Prof. Antonio Paris (@AntonioParis) March 10, 2016
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