The slugging outfielder had a big second half, but can he overcome the massive strikeout problems he showed in his full-season debut?
LF/1B/DH, RHB, 22
2015 with Savannah: 93 G, 335 PA, .213/.304/.381, 38 R, 61
H, 18 2B, 3 3B, 8 HR, 40 RBI, 133 K: 32 BB (39.9 K%: 9.6 BB%), .351 BABIP, .168
ISO, 95 wRC+, 9.9 AB/XBH, 15.7% HR/FB, 41.4 GB%: 32.5 FB%: 21 LD%: 5.1 PU%, 5-9
on stolen bases (56%)
One look at Vicente Lupo, or his stats, and it quickly becomes clear why he’s interesting: power. If you are looking at his stats, it’s also easy to see why he’s not more interesting or well known: strikeouts, so many strikeouts. There were only 3 instances when Lupo went multiple games without a strikeout in 2015, and he never lasted 3 games. Lupo is a classic three-true-outcome guy, but then again he better be if he’s striking out 40% of the time. He’s a big guy, with huge forearms, and predictably not much of a runner. That said, he’s not a butcher in LF or on the base paths, he’s just limited. Check out his splits and some cage work from May I captured during my trip to Rome – apologies for the shakiness, I had never taped pro cage action before.
Table 1 – Vicente Lupo’s 2015 Splits by Month
Month
|
PA
|
AB/XBH
|
HR/FB
|
BB%
|
K%
|
BABIP
|
ISO
|
wRC+
|
GB%
|
April
|
51
|
22.5
|
8.3
|
9.8
|
37.3
|
.321
|
.088
|
38
|
25.9
|
May
|
85
|
12
|
0
|
12.9
|
38.8
|
.325
|
.083
|
66
|
37.8
|
June
|
58
|
8.7
|
30
|
5.2
|
41.4
|
.407
|
.231
|
121
|
37.9
|
July
|
80
|
9.2
|
27.3
|
12.6
|
43.8
|
.286
|
.234
|
104
|
51.6
|
August
|
41
|
6
|
12.5
|
7.3
|
29.3
|
.435
|
.250
|
168
|
50
|
September
|
20
|
9.5
|
0
|
0
|
50
|
.556
|
.105
|
87
|
55.6
|
Table 2 – Vicente Lupo’s 2015 Platoon Splits
Split
|
PA
|
AB/XBH
|
HR/FB
|
BB%
|
K%
|
BABIP
|
ISO
|
wRC+
|
GB%
|
LHP
|
103
|
10.6
|
14.3
|
11.7
|
37.9
|
.333
|
.141
|
90
|
35.4
|
RHP
|
232
|
9.7
|
16.2
|
8.6
|
40.5
|
.352
|
.177
|
96
|
44
|
Table 3 – Vicente Lupo’s 2015 Splits by Batted Ball Type
Batted Ball Type
|
PA
|
BABIP
|
SAL BABIP
|
wOBA
|
SAL wOBA
|
FB
|
51
|
.233
|
.189
|
.587*
|
.341
|
GB
|
68
|
.284
|
.252
|
.291
|
.243
|
LD
|
33
|
.727
|
.734
|
.757
|
.788
|
*6th in the SAL, min. 40 fly balls hit
Table 4 – Vicente Lupo’s 2015 Splits by Batted Ball
Direction
Batted Ball
Direction
|
PA
|
%
|
AB/XBH
|
BABIP
|
SAL BABIP*
|
wOBA
|
SAL wOBA*
|
GB%
|
Center
|
41
|
25.8
|
3.9
|
.462
|
.326
|
.586ยช
|
.347
|
27.5
|
Opposite
|
44
|
27.7
|
10.5
|
.227
|
.262
|
.252
|
.282
|
34.9
|
Pull
|
74
|
46.5
|
4.7
|
.373
|
.344
|
.538
|
.428
|
53.4
|
*RHB Only; ยช2nd in the SAL, min. 40 balls hit up
the middle
It’s
not a big leg kick, but Lupo loads everything on his back leg before exploding
forward. He’s always shown a willingness to take the walk, but he has trouble
identifying and hitting breaking stuff. When he does make contact, he’s capable
of punishing the ball to all fields, although he showed pull-heavy tendencies
last year. He was one of the very best in the SAL on fly balls and when hitting
the ball up the middle last year, and he was top-30 when pulling the ball. He
didn’t show any platoon splits, but that works against him in a sense, because
at least a big platoon split work on the bench. On the other hand, if he can
improve his approach so that he’s striking out less, it should benefit him
against both sides, and that’s always preferred.
Overall,
Lupo tantalizes with his power, but it’s hard to believe in someone who strikes
out 40% of the time for any significant stretch of time. He got off to a very
slow start in 2015, but adjusted to the league by midseason, and his ISO from
June 1st on (.224) would’ve led the SAL – he had 21 XBH and 23
BB+HBP over 200 PA during that span. Despite a 40% strikeout rate over those
last 200 PA, Lupo’s production was ~20% better than SAL average, which hints at
the type of damage he could do with merely a bad strikeout rate. He’s already
been in the organization 5 seasons, but Lupo is only 22, so he has plenty of
time to improve his K-rates. Still, it’s unlikely he makes huge gains with his
K-rates, and I think he’ll have to start hitting a lot of homeruns to avoid
fizzling out before AAA.
Astromets Mind Coverage
Meteor Telescope, Take 3, Ready for Space Station Launch— Discovery Space (@Discovery_Space) March 22, 2016
https://t.co/8w1aFPdSC0 by @Free_Space pic.twitter.com/d4S5Ft0l8h
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