The 2012 draft pick started showing some of the pop potential that got him drafted in his first taste of full-season ball last year
2015 with Savannah (including playoffs): 89 G, 346 PA, .253/.278/.363, 40 R, 83 H, 14 2B, 2 3B, 6 HR, 40 RBI, 88 K: 12 BB (25.4 K%: 3.5 BB%), .324 BABIP, .110 ISO, 79 wRC+, 15.1 AB/XBH, 9.7% HR/FB, 45.4 GB%: 26.1 FB%: 26.1 LD%: 2.5 PU%, 41 of 104 potential baserunners caught stealing (39%), will be 22 on April 12
The Mets selected Tomas Nido out of
Orangewood Christian HS in Florida with their 8th round pick of the
2012 draft. He was considered a good catcher with some nice pop potential
heading into the draft, and the profile hasn’t much as he enters his 2nd
year of full season ball nearly 4 years later. Nido was Savannah’s primary
catcher in 2015, but he was still a catcher, so he got less playing time than
most starting prospects. He was also given a dozen starts at DH, but his 75
games behind the plate more than double his previous pro high of 31 with
Brooklyn in 2014.
Nido
had a strong year behind the plate for Savannah, and he gunned down nearly 40%
of 104 would-be base stealers. During Sand Gnats MiLB.TV coverage, he threw out
3 runners at 2B (links below) – one great pop time, one average, one hard to
tell but looks below average – and picked a runner off at 1B in the rain. He
also worked well with a pitching staff that saw a lot of turnover, but led the
league with only 3.77 runs allowed per game. Below I take a look at some trends
in his splits from 2015, and then share links to all GIF coverage of him I
caught last year.
 |
| Tomas Nido's 2015 spray chart vs. LHP (left) and vs. RHP (right) |
Table 1 – Tomas Nido’s 2015 Splits by Month
Month
|
PA
|
AB/XBH
|
HR/FB
|
BB%
|
K%
|
BABIP
|
ISO
|
wRC+
|
GB%
|
April
|
58
|
9.5
|
7.7
|
1.7
|
19
|
.267
|
.140
|
63
|
46.2
|
May
|
73
|
23
|
10
|
4.1
|
24.7
|
.340
|
.072
|
81
|
52
|
June
|
73
|
11.3
|
12.5
|
4.1
|
30.1
|
.283
|
.161
|
69
|
31.2
|
July
|
67
|
12.6
|
12.5
|
3
|
25.4
|
.413
|
.127
|
118
|
57.4
|
August
|
58
|
27
|
9.1
|
5.2
|
25.9
|
.282
|
.074
|
49
|
42.1
|
September
|
21
|
0 XBH
|
0
|
0
|
23.8
|
.312
|
0
|
30
|
37.5
|
Table 2 – Tomas Nido’s 2015 Platoon Splits
Split
|
PA
|
AB/XBH
|
HR/FB
|
BB%
|
K%
|
BABIP
|
ISO
|
wRC+
|
GB%
|
LHP
|
111
|
7.9
|
13.6
|
5.4
|
20.7
|
.385
|
.195
|
140
|
39
|
RHP
|
239
|
25.4
|
7.5
|
2.5
|
27.2
|
.287
|
.070
|
44
|
48.7
|
Nido
is too aggressive at the plate for his own good, as you can see by his very
poor K and BB rates, but when he does make contact, he can put a hurting on the
ball. He slowed down during the stretch run considerably, and it’s likely the
increased workload behind the plate last year played a role. He would’ve caught
plenty during extended spring training over the previous few seasons, and those
games are often played at midday in Florida, but that’s still not the same as
travelling with a full-season team from early April on, and catching 9-innings
4-5 days a week. His platoon splits are limiting to his overall ceiling, but
it’s always better for a prospect to excel at something, and last year Nido
excelled at hitting lefties. Here is some cage work from May I finally got
around to uploading to YouTube so you can get a better look at his swing.
Nido
uses a big leg kick and a little hitch with his hands to set up, and then
drives forward with quick hands and a short swing on the ball. When everything
syncs right, he shows power to all fields, but there’s a lot of movement to
sync up. However, his swing works for him, so even if it needs cleaning up, it’s his approach at the plate that
needs the most work.
Table 3 – Tomas Nido’s 2015 Batted Ball Type Splits
Batted Ball Type
|
PA
|
BABIP
|
SAL BABIP
|
wOBA
|
SAL wOBA
|
FB
|
62
|
.175
|
.189
|
.351
|
.341
|
GB
|
115
|
.263
|
.252
|
.255
|
.243
|
LD
|
62
|
.607
|
.734
|
.639
|
.788
|
Table 4 – Tomas Nido’s 2015 Batted Ball Direction Splits
Batted Ball
Direction
|
PA
|
%
|
AB/XBH
|
BABIP
|
SAL BABIP*
|
wOBA
|
SAL wOBA*
|
GB%
|
Center
|
82
|
33.3
|
13.3
|
.321
|
.326
|
.347
|
.347
|
45
|
Opposite
|
85
|
34.6
|
10.5
|
.329
|
.262
|
.372
|
.282
|
26.2
|
Pull
|
79
|
32.1
|
9.6
|
.329
|
.344
|
.401
|
.428
|
68
|
*RHB Only
When
Nido does make contact, he sprays the ball all over the field, and is
especially good when hitting the ball the other way. Although the averages in
Table 4 only include RHB’s, you can see from the wOBA columns that Nido was
collectively above league average on balls in play last year, with all of that
surplus value coming from balls hit the other way. This magnifies the impact of
his poor approach at the plate, as he provided almost 0 value with walks or
HBP’s last year, and ¼ of his PA’s did end with a walk back to the dugout.
The
old adage is that catchers develop at an unpredictable, but generally slower path, and it’s easy to
understand why. Not only did Nido see an increased workload behind the plate
last year, he had to work with 27 different pitchers. His defense at a premium
position and pop potential should keep Nido employed into the upper minors, but
he’ll need to cut down on the strikeouts and/or learn to take a walk if he
wants to break through to the majors as more than a AAAA option. He’s young
enough that it wouldn’t be unprecedented for him to make the plate discipline
improvements needed to up his ceiling, which makes him a potential breakout
prospect. Nido will either head to
St. Lucie to start the year, or be splitting time with someone in Columbia, and
2015 draftee Patrick Mazeika would be the most likely candidate after tearing up the
APPY league with a .350+ average last year. Mazeika could spend some extra time
in extended spring training, and he might see some time at 1B this year, but I can’t imagine he gets held back for Brooklyn - it's more likely Mazeika skips Columbia than is held back for Brooklyn.
Astromets Mind Coverage
The 0.2 seconds that launched a new era of astronomy https://t.co/zIDoNUM3ro #LIGO #GravitationalWaves #BlackHoles pic.twitter.com/9XEoVW6SVl— Nature News&Comment (@NatureNews) March 24, 2016
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