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| Taijeron a breakout 2011 for the CPP Broncos |
The Mets 18th round pick from the 2011 draft is off to a
scorching start for the Las Vegas 51s, should we expect to see him in Queens
anytime soon?
If
it seems like Travis Taijeron has smoked everything that he has hit so far,
it’s only because he has, and it’s put him at the top of a lot of PCL
leaderboards (rankings include qualified batters only, from fangraphs): 9th
in AVG (.352), 7th in OBP (.419), 11th in ISO (.315), 5th
in wRC+ (188), t-6th in HR (5), t-4th in K% (33.9), and 3rd
in BABIP (.483). As you can see with those last two stats, a high percentage of
his plate appearances have ended without Taijeron making contact (45.2% have
ended in a K, BB, or HBP), but when he has, it’s been hard contact, which is
the driving force behind his high BABIP. Let’s take a quick look at how he got
here, and then compare it to his hot start in 2015.
When
the Mets took Taijeron with their 19th pick in the 2011 draft, he
was coming off a season for DII Cal Poly Pomona during which he beasted to a
1.278 OPS thanks to 16 bombs. He was considered to have good raw power, but his
big,
sweeping swing caused concerns about making contact in the upper minors. Taijeron
went to Brooklyn as a 22-year old, where he led the league with a .258 ISO, and
was 3rd with 9 homeruns, but still struck out 28.4% of the time. He
drew some attention in Mets
prospect circles after that strong start to his pro career, but not much.
He had spent most of the season in CF, where he played in college, but people
hadn’t expected him to stick there out of college, and he didn’t exactly change
their opinion.
Taijeron would start 2012 with
Savannah, and he mashed for a .291/.401/.548 slash line over the first half,
which earned him a promotion to St. Lucie. Taijeron hit his first road bump at
St. Lucie in 2012, with his ISO dropping below .200 for the first time (it was
.171, which is still nice), and his .253 BABIP suppressing his overall slash
line. Overall, he combined to his 19 homeruns in 2012, while still playing a
majority of his games in CF. Upon further inspection, you’ll notice that
Taijeron only made 7 appearances in CF for St. Lucie, and he’s only made 7
appearances in CF anywhere since.
Taijeron’s 2013 was very similar to
his 2012, except he dominated the Florida State League in the first half
(.303/.396/.564 with 9 homeruns and a career low 24.3 K%), before hitting a
bump in his first taste of AA during the second half (.245/.322/.504 with 14
homeruns and a 29.5 K%). Thanks to all of that power, his line was still good
for a 125 wRC+ with Binghamton in 2013. Overall, he hit 23 homeruns in 2013,
but there still wasn’t much excitement
for his future. Taijeron improved his K: BB rates during his second stint
in AA, but his HR/PA-rate dropped from 1 HR every 18.6 PA in 2013 with
Binghamton, to 1 HR every 25.8 PA in 2014. But, after a cold start to the
season, Taijeron finished the season as good as he had been anywhere, hitting
.286/.396/.552 with 12 HR over his final 240 PA. He still struck out 27.1% of
the time during that span, but his power (.266 ISO), patience (13.3 BB%), and a
.365 BABIP helped overcome that. Looking at MLBfarm,
you can see that Taijeron started hitting line drives at twice his first half
rate during that span in 2014, which was likely the driving force behind his
improvements.
Thanks to finishing 2014 on a high
note, Taijeron had earned one of the promotions available to play in the 51s
outfield out of Spring Training this year, where he has taken off. While his
average has definitely been BABIP driven, and that BABIP is definitely
unsustainably high, it’s not been a lucky .483 BABIP, he really has been crushing
the ball. Of the 34 PA’s that have ended with Taijeron making contact, 16 of
his batted balls have been classified as line drives, which is a 47% LD-rate.
While I always add a disclaimer to minor league batted ball data (some of it
may be misclassified, it’s not as reliable as major league data), his line
drive rate is still elite with a few misclassified batted balls. Also, his
impressive .315 ISO is not a mirage, as 5 of his 6 extra base hits have left
the year – this is the PCL though, where homeruns flout of the park. Considering
all of his power and strikeouts, you’d think that Taijeron was a pull hitter,
and while he’s historically favored the pull side, he’s shown power to all
fields throughout his career. It’s early, but he’s been going back up the
middle and to the right side a lot more than ever, as only 29.5% of batted
balls have been hit to LF, SS or 3B.
So, what do the Mets have here? A
similar situation to what the Mets have with Kirk Nieuwenhuis, except from the
right side, and less reliable in CF – he wouldn’t be the worst option on the
team, but I haven’t seen anything from his play in RF to suggest a team should
rely on him as an option out there. Right now, Taijeron strikes out too much to
start in the majors, and the high K-rate doesn’t fit the profile of a typical
bench player, so he should keep playing everyday in AAA. But, if he keeps up a
high hard-hit rate, he could come up and potentially do what Kirk Nieuwenhuis
did for the Mets in 2014 – 30% K-rate, but a 130 wRC+. He appears to have more
power than Kirk, and the Mets still have 3 option years left on Travis, as he
is not on the 40-man roster yet, so I expect we’ll see him on the bench over
the next few years. The bad news is that Taijeron is already 26, and still
needs more minor league seasoning, which is why I think the AAAA label will
find him in time. If he does carve out a role in the majors, I think it is most
likely to be as a lefty-mashing 4th outfielder, which can be
valuable to a franchise – Scott Hairston was worth 2 fWAR in that role for the
Mets during his two seasons in Queens. But realistically, he’s probably 4th
on the Mets OF depth chart right now, behind Alex Castellanos, Darrell
Ceciliani and Brandon Nimmo – Castellanos has been even hotter and plays nearly
every position, and Ceciliani is Kirk’s backup right now – so I don’t think
we’ll be seeing him in Queens anytime soon.
Check out 19 GIFs of Taijeron playing for Binghamton in 2014 here, and some 2015 GIFs below:
Check out 19 GIFs of Taijeron playing for Binghamton in 2014 here, and some 2015 GIFs below:
This region of Mercury will have a new crater today when @MESSENGER2011 impacts the planet: http://t.co/uLY1FMq3Nb pic.twitter.com/VgPsXAJSGU
— NASA (@NASA) April 30, 2015
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