Reviewing the three prospects that will be representing the Mets this
fall in Arizona.
The
initial Arizona Fall League rosters were announced on Tuesday, and three Mets
prospects have been rewarded with a chance to play in the league so far.
Infielder Jeff McNeil of the St. Lucie Mets, and pitchers Beck Wheeler and
Mickey Jannis of the Binghamton Mets will play with the Salt River Rafters, who
are due to be managed by Tripp Keister. The AFL is typically a place were teams
send their highly regarded prospects for some more game action, and this year 9
of MLB.com’s Top-100 prospects are currently heading there. However, while this
Mets trio may reach the Mets someday, they are far from being the most highly
regarded prospects within the system, so let’s review them below.
Jeff
McNeil is currently the most interesting prospect of the trio, and he’s coming
off of a nice season for St. Lucie: through 119 games, he is hitting
.312/.373/.382 with 18 doubles, 6 triples, 1 homerun, 16-21 on stolen bases,
and 59 K: 35 BB in 529 PA. I took a closer look at him after his
hot April, and I would have never guessed back then that he’d finish the
season in St. Lucie – I assumed he’d be promoted after his FSL All-Star
appearance (game
highlights here). He has improved from a 90 wRC+ over 58 games with St.
Lucie in 2014 to a 133 wRC+ in 119 games with them this year, but most of those
gains have been from BABIP (.275 in 2014, .353 this year). Statistical
improvements through BABIP gains at one level in the minors are not as big of a
red flag as with major league players, but McNeil also saw his BB% drop from
9.1% to 6.6%, while his K% and ISO remained about the same, which is not what
you want to see from a player repeating his level. Defensively, he’s pretty
sound around the infield, and some reports suggest that he could handle
occasional SS duties. His most likely role in the majors is as a utility
infielder and lefty bat off the bench.
Beck
Wheeler is an undrafted minor league free agent who was signed by the Mets in
2011. He features a low 90’s fastball that will reach 95 MPH at times, and
mixes in an effective curveball. His season got off to a terrible start this
year with Binghamton, as he allowed 17 R (16 ER) in his first 16 IP, with 18
hits and 13 walks allowed through May 10th, but he’s turned things
around and finished strong: he has a 1.37 ERA and .553 OPS allowed over his
last 23 appearances (39.1 IP) with 36 K: 13 BB. He’s been fine against both
sides, but he’s held lefties to just a .500 OPS in 97 PA. While the small
sample size of data, the 12 walks allowed, and the .206 BABIP vs. LHB suggests
the split advantage might be illusionary, Wheeler has held LHB under the .550
OPS mark in each minor league season to date, so he clearly does something
effective against them. As a 26-year old reliever, he’s not the most exciting
prospect, but he will probably get the chance to pitch in a major league pen
someday.
The
Mets signed Mickey Jannis to a minor league deal back in July, but once Mickey
Jannis began his career resurrection as a knuckleball pitcher back in 2012, he
was destined to pitch for the Mets. Evidence? He was inspired by R.A. Dickey’s Cy
Young season with the Mets, and… his first name rhymes with Dickey. I wrote
a full
report on Jannis back in July, but the skinny is that he might be the
hardest throwing knuckler to date, topping even R.A. Dickey’s top knuckleball
speed. Also, Jannis can still reach 90 MPH with his fastball, and he has a
slider and changeup from his days as a regular pitcher that he’s not afraid to
mix in either. As I wrote back then, the knuckleball will be the key to success
for Jannis, as he’ll be throwing it 80+% of the time, but it’s nice to have
Mickey’s repertoire of alternates for the other 20% of the time. Although 90
MPH is more on the below average side of velocity for a RHP, it’s still much
faster than what Tim Wakefield and other knuckleballer’s before him had to
throw, which was basically BP, and even much faster than R.A., who tops out at
~82 MPH. To date, Jannis has made 8 appearances (7 starts) with St. Lucie, and
one with Binghamton (his next start is scheduled for Thursday in Reading).
Walks were an issue for him initially (13 allowed over his first 18.1 IP), but
he’s done a great job of keeping them in check since (7 allowed in his last
32.1 IP for a 5% BB-rate). If he can keep the walks in check and remain
effective with the knuckler, he could become a useful piece of the Mets
pitching staff, as knuckleballers are known for their ability to shift from the
pen to the rotation as needed – Jannis even told Pedro Lopez that he prefers to
pitch in game action during his throw day to stay competitive. It’s always a
long shot with knuckleballers, but the AFL will be a good place for the Mets to
further evaluate whether Jannis can be effective with that pitch against the best talent.
While
these three are the only Mets prospects to be announced to date, it’s possible
that they choose a few more to represent them this fall. The AFL season starts
on October 13th and runs until the championship game on November 21st.
Question of the Day! Does it "matter" that dark matter rotates?
Answer: http://t.co/yTyUwGJPGX pic.twitter.com/EeaoBU2ora
— Chandra Observatory (@chandraxray) September 1, 2015
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