9th Inning Collapse In Vegas Has The 51s Barely Holding Onto 1st Place | Astromets Mind

Tuesday, September 1, 2015

9th Inning Collapse In Vegas Has The 51s Barely Holding Onto 1st Place


El Paso Chihuahuas @ Las Vegas 51s


August 31, 2015



Teams
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9

R
H
E
El Paso
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
3

6
12
2
Las Vegas
1
0
1
0
0
0
3
0
0

5
6
1
W: Mateo (3-0, 1.69 ERA); L: Church (6-3, 4.16 ERA); Save: Edwards (23, 1.23 ERA)


The Highlights:

Pitchers

Darin Gorski (5.12 ERA) – 5 IP, 7 H, 2 R, BB, 3 SO, 2 HR, 90 Pitches (59 Strikes), 4 GO: 4 FO
Cody Satterwhite (4.61 ERA) – 2 IP, 3 H, R, 29 Pitches (21 Strikes), 2 GO: 2 FO
Vic Black (H, 3, 7.94 ERA) – 0.2 IP, H, BB, 1 FO
Scott Rice (H, 9, 1.91 ERA) – 0.1 IP, R, BB, SO, 2 IR – 0 S
John Church (BS, 1)(L, 6-3, 4.16 ERA) – 1 IP, H, 2 R (1 ER), BB, SO, 2 GO, 1 IR – 1 S

Robbie Erlin (5.93 ERA) – 5 IP, 4 H, 2 R, BB, 3 SO, HR, 70 Pitches (45 Strikes), 6 GO: 1 FO
Tayron Guerrero (5.06 ERA) – 1 IP, BB, SO, 2 GO
Frank Garces (H, 6, 2.91 ERA) – 0.1 IP, 2 R, 2 BB, 1 FO
Dale Thayer (BS, 1, 1.59 ERA) – 0.2 IP, H, R, SO, HR, 1 GO, 2 IR – 2 S
Marcos Mateo – 1 IP, BB, 1 GO: 1 FO
Jon Edwards – 1 IP, H, 2 SO, 1 GO

Batters

Dilson Herrera – 2-4, 2 R, HR (8), 3 RBI (44), SB (11), SO
Matt Reynolds – 1-4, R, HR (6), RBI (60)
Johnny Monell – 1-3, 2B (15), RBI (49), BB, 2 SB (6)
Brandon Allen – 2-3, R, BB

Jake Goebbert – 1-4, 2 R, BB
Hunter Renfroe – 1-4, 2 R, HR (5), RBI (12), BB
Ramiro Pena – 2-3, R, 2B (21), RBI (52), BB
Will Middlebrooks – 1-5, 2B (5)
Hector Gomez – 3-5, R, 2B (9), 3B (4), HR (3), 4 RBI (21), SO
Rymer Liriano – 2-5, 2B (29), SAC, 2 SO
Rocky Gale – 2-4, GIDP

Recap


            With the calendar turning to September, and the minor league season entering its final week of regular season play, the 1st place Las Vegas 51s began a four game series with the 2nd place El Paso Chihuahuas Monday night holding onto a tiny 1.5 game lead within the division. Unfortunately for Las Vegas, although they will still be able to field a formidable PCL lineup, the 51s lost a few regulars before the game Monday night, as Kevin Plawecki, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Eric Campbell, and Eric Young Jr. were on their way to Queens to join the New York Mets march towards the postseason. Neither starter would factor in the decision, although they both provided solid, if unspectacular, 5-inning performances in the game. It would come down to a game of bullpen management, which has not always been Wally’s best attribute, and the 51s pen would blow a 5-3 lead with just 3 outs to play.
            The two teams combined for four bombs in the game, scoring 6 of the 11 runs on homeruns, and each blast created a bigger swing in the momentum of the game than the last. Gorski tried to take advantage of the spacious outfields in the 1st inning, inducing 3 fly outs, but Hunter Renfroe hit one well beyond the outfield to give El Paso an early 1-0. Matt Reynolds launched one in the 3rd to give Las Vegas a 2-1 lead after two shutdown innings from Gorski, which got the crowd really pumped up, as they know how big this game is. Hector Gomez led off the 4th with a blast to tie the game back up as quickly as possible, and settling the crowd down with one swing. Finally, trailing 3-2 with two outs in the bottom of the 7th and recently outrighted Dale Thayer on the mound, Dilson Herrera launched a majestic three run blast to left center field to give Las Vegas a 5-3 lead – the first two run cushion for either team in the game.
            The 51s turned to Vic Black for the 8th inning, and his struggles continued. He’d issue a one out walk to Cody Decker, and then allowed a double to LF that put the tying runs in scoring position with just one out. Black was able to induce a fly out to shallow RF for the second out, and then Wally brought in Scott Rice for the lefty. Rice did his job by getting the lefty Alex Dickerson to strikeout and end the threat in the 8th, but Wally wasn’t done with him, which leads me to an aside.
            There are exceptions to every rule, but I don’t generally agree with the idea of sending someone out there with the intention of bringing in another pitcher after one or two batters. Usually it’s a starter that is past his limit, but because he’s having a special start the manager is sending him out there with a tight rope for one last inning, which means the relievers are on call to come into a tougher situation if that starter falters than they would be in if they just started the frame themselves. In this case, I get why you’d want to leave the lefty in to face a lefty in the 9th, but it doesn’t fit with Rice’s usage pattern for the season – he’s only pitched in multiple innings during 15% of his appearances coming in, and not since 7/4 – which makes him like the starter who is past his limit, and he’s just not been reliable or good enough this year – he had a 17.5% BB-rate against lefties coming in. I’ve seen some questions online about a Scott Rice return throughout the season, especially lately, but it’s not going to happen this year, and you wouldn’t want it to.
            Wally would bring in John Church after the leadoff walk from Rice in the 9th, because Church is the hottest pitcher in the pen, having held opponents to a .274 OPS over 49 PA during his previous 13 appearances (14.1 scoreless innings). Church issued a walk to the first batter he faced, and then Zach Lutz (who was playing for the first time since 8/11, while recently outrighted Daniel Muno sat on the bench) made a throwing error on a sac bunt attempts to load the bases with 0 outs. After Church induced a much-needed pop out for the first out of the frame, Hector Gomez continued his scorching night by clearing the bases with a triple, giving the Chihuahua’s a 6-5 lead. Church would induce the final two outs of the frame, but Las Vegas could not tie it in the 9th, and their division lead is now down to 0.5 games.
            This series continues Tuesday night at 10:05 PM, with Logan Verrett (4-2, 3.57 ERA) scheduled to face-off with Jason Lane (10-9, 5.71 ERA), and looking to keep the 51s in 1st place.


Pitcher Coverage


Table 1 – Pitch stats by inning

1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
Total
Total
14
18
18
20
20
90
Strikes
10
13
11
13
12
59
Swinging*
2
2
2
4
1
11
*12.2% Swinging strike rate





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