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| If he's on the hot seat, things probably aren't go as we hoped |
Checking in on how the Mets manager stacks up against the rest of the
National League skippers.
Terry
Collins elicits some pretty strong feelings from Mets fans, which is the kind
of relationship all baseball managers tend to have with their fans, even some
of those who have championship success. Over 162 games, there are a lot of
decisions that a manager has to make, and almost all seem to enrage some portion
of fanbases, especially on social media – as if we armchair managers have any
significant fraction of the information available to MLB managers. But when it
comes to ranking
baseball managers, there is little statistical information available (and
almost none used) to compare the men who will inevitably become scapegoats for
their team. That’s where the 2015 Bill
James Handbook comes in handy, as it had some interesting statistics on
current major league managers. You can see how Terry Collins ranked in a few of
the statistical categories measured in the Handbook
below, and check out the
book for even more statistics on major league managers, and a lot more on
major league players.
Table 1 – Lineup, substitution, and tactical record of Terry
Collins
Lineups
|
PH-used
|
PR-used
|
Def. Subs
|
SB Att.
|
Sac Att.
|
Pitch outs
|
|
2011
|
121
|
312
|
18
|
28
|
165
|
88
|
9
|
2012
|
141
|
329
|
16
|
38
|
117
|
75
|
8
|
2013
|
132
|
266
|
12
|
33
|
149
|
67
|
3
|
2014
|
135
|
247
|
17
|
26
|
135
|
73
|
2
|
Mets Average
|
132.3
|
288.5
|
15.8
|
31.3
|
141.5
|
75.8
|
5.5
|
’14 NL Rank
|
T-3
|
T-10
|
T-10
|
T-11
|
T-5
|
9
|
T-13
|
Terry
Collins likes to change the lineup around… a lot. In 2012, there was a two-way
tie for the most
common 8-man batting order used, with Terry Collins using those two lineups
for 4-games each. Considering he had that much lineup shuffling going on in
2012, it’s not surprising that he ended up using more pinch hitters in 2012
than any other year with the Mets. It’s good seeing Terry’s Mets with a
consistently high SB-rate, as the Mets still don’t have a lot of homerun power
to rely on, although we have yet to see how big of a hit losing Eric Young Jr.
will be in this department. After a high sac-bunt rate in his first season with
the Mets, Terry has been in the lower half of the national league the past few
seasons, and he shouldn’t be calling for too many sacrifices from the projected
2015 starters, so bunt-haters should be able to relax this season. But with
sac-bunts already falling out of favor across baseball, it’s how a manager
handles the starting staff and bullpen that is becoming more important than
ever.
Table 2 – Pitcher usage and intentional walk results for
Terry Collins
LO
|
RCD
|
Rel
|
#IBB
|
Good
|
NG
|
Bomb
|
|
2011
|
23
|
126
|
514
|
48
|
35
|
13
|
9
|
2012
|
19
|
113
|
505
|
29
|
18
|
11
|
3
|
2013
|
15
|
131
|
535
|
38
|
30
|
8
|
3
|
2014
|
23
|
111
|
489
|
38
|
23
|
15
|
4
|
Mets Average
|
20
|
120.3
|
510.8
|
38.3
|
26.5
|
11.8
|
4.8
|
’14 NL Rank
|
3
|
T-5
|
4
|
4
|
T-7
|
T-3
|
T-13
|
*The Columns: Long Outings are when more than 110 pitches are
thrown; Relievers on Consecutive Days; Relievers used; Good result from an IBB
is (1) a double play from the next batter, or (2) no runs allowed for the rest
of the inning; bomb is when multiple runs are allowed in an inning after the
intentional walk
Regardless
of what you think about the pitch count with respect to a pitchers health,
tracking pitch counts has shown teams that most pitchers get worse as they close
in on 100 pitches, which is generally the 3rd time through the
order. Collins let the Mets starters go deeper more often than 12 of the 14
other teams in the National League during the 2014 season, and has generally
allowed Mets starters to go deeper into games than the average manager. Despite
this, he used his relievers, and used them on consecutive days, more often than
most other NL managers. Some of the reason for all three factors is that the Mets
bullpen has been less than reliable, especially against lefties, which leads to
more late inning intentional walks as he micromanages his way through the end
of games – 98 of 153 (64%) intentional walks in his four years as manager have
come from a relief pitcher in the 7th inning or later, and 84 (55%)
have come against LHB. And despite being one of the strongest Mets pens in
years, since there are still questions of health and reliability against
lefties this year, Terry’s high level of micromanaging the bullpen is likely to
continue in 2015. Fortunately, there are a lot of potentially interesting
relief arms at the upper levels of the Mets system.
Another
common concern with letting a pitcher go deep into a game is that he’ll have a
layover effect in his next start and struggle. Table 3 shows how Mets starters
fared the start after throwing 110+ pitches in 2014.
Table 3 – Mets SP
results in the start after throwing 110 or more pitches from 2014 – note, the above
data doesn’t include starts that went exactly 110 pitches (2013 stats for Matt
Harvey).
GS
|
IP
|
ERA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
H (HR)
|
|
7
|
46.1
|
3.69
|
15.1
|
3.1
|
49 (4)
|
|
0
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
3
|
18.2
|
2.47
|
9.1
|
5.2
|
18 (1)
|
|
5
|
35.2
|
1.51
|
34.4
|
3.1
|
22 (1)
|
|
13
|
72
|
3.88
|
23.6
|
8.3
|
75 (7)
|
|
9
|
67
|
1.21
|
28.5
|
2.9
|
39 (2)
|
This
is a small sample size for all pitchers involved, but other than Zack Wheeler,
they all improved their ERA in the start after a 110+ pitch outing. They also
all saw a boost in BB%, and the 3 young guns were at their season average or
better in K%. Overall, the Mets starters did not appear to have a layover
effect after high pitch count outings in 2014 (or 2013 in Harvey’s case), but
I’ve only considered the effect on the start after during the 2014 season here.
While I want Mets starters to go
deeper into games to make Terry’s job with the pen easier, I don’t want them
overtaxed by consistently go more than 110 pitches per start. It’s not that I’m
certain high pitch counts increase the chance of injury, or that avoiding them
decreases the chance, but I’d rather not take the chance, and would like to see
an effort to keep the starters as fresh as possible throughout the season.
Also, I don’t like when Terry sends a starter out for the beginning of an
inning near his pitch limit, ready to pull the pitcher once he gets into trouble.
It sometimes works out and saves the bullpen an inning, but when it doesn’t,
the relief starts off coming into a tough situation instead of getting a clean
slate to work with. With the added stress of the situation, depending on the
inning, Terry sometimes ends up ‘forced’ to rotate through his ‘middle relief
arms’ during one of the most important parts of the game. This can lead to too
many relief appearances per game, and the need for relievers on consecutive
days too often – of course, so can poor pitching from the pen.
Without watching other games as
closely as Mets games, it’s tough to tell how Terry Collins stacks up against
other major league managers, but these stats suggest he spends more time than
average managing the pitching side of the game, and less time than average
managing the offensive game. He has let Mets starters go deeper into games than
the average manager, but because he’s been stuck with a below average bullpen,
he’s been more of a bullpen micromanager than most, which has led to an
overtaxed bullpen at times. That’s something all managers deal with at some
point during a 162-game schedule of playing everyday, but Terry taxed the pen
more than the average NL manager in 2014, and even more by these measures the
previous 3 seasons. With expectations for the Mets as high as they’ve been in
the last half-decade, Terry Collins will be feeling the burn of the hot seat if
the Mets get off to a sluggish start this year. The problem with midseason
manager changes is that the interim replacement usually comes from within, and,
unless it’s early in the season, often ends up managing for the rest of the
year. Internal replacements aren’t always a bad thing of course, but it seems
like it would be harder for bench guys to make the transition, as they would be
suddenly assuming a different role in the clubhouse, and a different relationship
with the players. Also, there’s no guarantee that a new manager would be better
or have any positive impact on the roster, or that any extra success under the
new manager would be attributable to his influence. Of the internal choices
available to the Mets – bench guys Tom Goodwin, Tim Teufel, and Bob Geren, and current
minors managers Wally Backman (AAA) and Pedro Lopez (AA) – I’m partial to Pedro
Lopez. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves with this discussion just yet,
because I want the Mets to be great from the start of 2015, in which case Terry’s
job would be safe.
Astronomy Fact Card #18! Learn more interesting facts about the Tarantula Nebula right here: http://t.co/PYQjaFYdgD pic.twitter.com/exqEGfe2VY
— Chandra Observatory (@chandraxray) March 9, 2015
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