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| Brad Penner-USA Today Sports |
Despite having established himself as one of the Mets top bullpen options during the 2014 season, Familia still has some work to do in getting lefties out.
In
case you were asleep during the 2014 season, here’s a quick description of
Jeurys Familia’s pitches courtesy of www.brooksbaseball.net:
“His sinker (97 MPH) generates an extremely high number of swings & misses compared to other pitchers’ sinkers, is thrown at a speed that’s borderline unfair, results in somewhat more groundballs compared to other pitchers’ sinkers and has slight armside run. His fourseam fastball (97 MPH) generates a very high amount of groundballs compared to other pitchers’ fourseasmers and is blazing fast. His slider (87 MPH) generates an extremely high number of swings and misses compared to other pitchers’ sliders, is a real worm killer that generates an extreme number of groundballs compared to other pitchers’ sliders, is much harder than usual and has primarily 12-6 movement.”
If
you were designing someone to come in from the pen late in the game, you could
do a lot worse than giving him Familia’s sinker, fourseam fastball, and slider.
You’ve got power, swings and misses, and groundballs, which is a great recipe
for success as a pitcher. Familia threw his sinker about half of the time in
2014, and his fourseam and slider about a quarter of the time each. As a side
note, Brooks also has him throwing 10 change-ups to lefties in 2014, which is
too insignificant a sample to be considered here. Although control problems
would flare up from time to time, his overall walk rate of 9.9% was much better
than the 17.3 BB% he managed in each of his 2 previous stints with the Mets.
While still an uncomfortably high BB%, Familia only allowed more than one walk
in 4 of 76 appearances, and only reached 3 walks once early in the season, so
he was able to avoid being burned by the base on ball. The bigger concern
moving forward is Familia’s L/R splits from 2014, which are highlighted in
Table 1.
Table 1 – Familia’s 2014 L/R splits from Fangraphs
Split
|
IP
|
TBF
|
H (HR)
|
BABIP
|
K%
|
BB%
|
GB%
|
FB%
|
LD%
|
wOBA
|
vs. L
|
33
|
153
|
39 (3)
|
.319
|
12.4
|
11.1
|
46.4
|
33.9
|
19.6
|
.357
|
vs. R
|
44.1
|
169
|
20 (0)
|
.202
|
32.0
|
8.9
|
70.1
|
20.6
|
9.3
|
.179
|
First,
Familia dominated righties, striking out nearly 1/3 of right-handed batters
faced, and inducing a 70% groundball rate on balls in play. While his .202
BABIP against righties is obviously very low, it’s not unbelievably low
considering the high groundball rate. Still, it’s something to keep an eye on
in 2015 with Flores at SS. Although, don’t blame Flores alone if his BABIP
against righties increases, as he allowed a .269 BABIP vs. R at home - he still
kept those righty hitters to a .239 wOBA.
Against lefties, Familia was much
less effective, with his sub-par 12.4 K% and average 46.4 GB% the biggest
concerning factors. He just didn’t get nearly the same results against lefties,
something that will surely effect how the Mets use him in 2015. Although he
allowed all three of his homeruns against lefties in 2014, they were all solo
homeruns allowed, so the damage was limited. To get a better understanding of
why there was such a difference in results, let’s look at how Familia’s
approach was different against lefties and righties, and which pitches lefties
had more success against.
Table 2 – Familia’s 2014 L/R pitch usage stats from
BrooksBaseball
Situation
|
Fourseam %
|
Sinker %
|
Slider %
|
LHB All Counts
|
32
|
54
|
12
|
LHB Batter ahead
|
37
|
55
|
8
|
LHB Even count
|
29
|
59
|
11
|
LHB Pitcher Ahead
|
31
|
47
|
18
|
LHB 2-strikes
|
37
|
32
|
27
|
RHB All Counts
|
24
|
40
|
36
|
RHB Batter ahead
|
33
|
45
|
23
|
RHB Even count
|
22
|
41
|
47
|
RHB Pitcher Ahead
|
18
|
33
|
59
|
RHB 2-strikes
|
20
|
23
|
56
|
Table 3 – Familia’s 2014 L/R results by pitch stats from
BrooksBaseball
Side/Pitch
|
AB
|
K
|
Whiff/Swing
|
BABIP
|
ISO
|
GB%
|
FB%
|
LD%
|
LHB Fourseam
|
31
|
4
|
15.3
|
.333
|
.065
|
38.5
|
23
|
38.5
|
LHB Sinker
|
82
|
6
|
14.3
|
.293
|
.134
|
52
|
20
|
28
|
LHB Slider
|
17
|
8
|
40.0
|
.429
|
.412
|
28.5
|
28.5
|
43
|
RHB Fourseam
|
31
|
8
|
27.5
|
.217
|
.032
|
69
|
22
|
9
|
RHB Sinker
|
59
|
10
|
29.2
|
.204
|
.017
|
69.5
|
18.5
|
12
|
RHB Slider
|
58
|
35
|
58.2
|
.217
|
.035
|
72
|
24
|
4
|
Unsurprisingly,
Familia’s numbers against righties are very good with all 3 pitches. As you can
see, Familia was much more likely to use his fastballs against lefties, as they
appear to have had a lot of success against the slider. Upon closer inspection,
nearly half of the only 17 at-bats (a very small sample size) against lefties
that ended with a slider resulted in a strikeout. He also allowed two homeruns
off the slider, which inflates the ISO to an extreme high, and hits in 4 of the
remaining 7 at bats, which accounts for the high BABIP, which is from a sample
size hardly worth considering. Looking beyond just at-bats that ended with a
slider, you see that he got a much higher rate of whiffs/swing with the slider
than his fastballs, indicating that it could still be an effective pitch
against that side. When Familia was ahead in counts or had two strikes on a
hitter, he was more likely to use the slider than in other situations, but he
still used the slider twice as often against righties in those situations than
against lefties. When he wasn’t looking to put lefties away, Familia mostly went to
his bread-and-butter sinker, which still had a strong 52% groundball rate
against lefties. Unfortunately, the 28% line drive rate allowed to lefties off
his sinker is pretty high, and likely played a big part in the .134 ISO allowed
off the pitch, as he allowed 8 extra base hits off the sinker, including 1
homerun. Considering the even higher line drive rate allowed off of his
fourseam, it’s perhaps a little surprising that he didn’t allow a higher BABIP
or ISO off the pitch, although it’s possible the sample is too small to have
stabilized results.
Overall,
Familia’s pitches were less effective against lefties, which is not so
surprising for a right-handed pitcher, but he also had a very different
approach against lefties. Although pitchers prefer to throw pitches that break
away from hitters, considering the higher whiff/swing rate against lefties with
the slider, it seems like Familia should start throwing that pitch more against
lefties. This is what happened during the 2nd half of 2014 (at the
expense of sinkers), and he saw his K% bump up to a more acceptable 15.6%
against that side (it was 9.2% over the first 81 games). Although he allowed
more extra base hits off the sinker against lefties, the strong groundball rate
induced by the pitch and armside run makes me believe it’s the more effective
fastball for him against lefties. When he did throw fourseamers to lefties, they fouled off
50% of the pitches they swung at for the season, which bumped up to nearly 60%
during the 2nd half.
Looking ahead to 2015, I think
Familia will continue to adjust his approach to lefties to maximize his results
against them, and that should mean more sliders to lefties in 2015. Even though
it’s always been considered his weakest offering, I think he should at least
flash a changeup more often against lefties this season, as it could help set
up his fastballs better. Also, as long as he can keep the changeup down and away,
it’ll be hard for lefties to do much damage off of it. It’ll be interesting to
see how much his L/R splits play a part in when the Mets use Familia in 2015,
and how often opponents will pinch-hit with their lefties against him. I think the Mets should continue to let him adjust his approach to lefties at the highest level, as he has the tools to be one of the most dominant 'crossover' relievers in the bigs, and he's already arguably the best pitcher in the Mets pen.
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