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| Picture from Adam Rubin/ESPN |
I discussed Cesar Puello's improvements throughout the 2014 season during my top prospect series, but I wanted to take a deeper look at how his L/R splits changed throughout the season. The season is broken down into five parts: his slow start in April, his strong May after finishing his court stuff, an unusual 10-day hitless streak to start June, and then I split the remaining plate appearances in half to keep the samples closer in size - the 4th group of data includes nearly two weeks missed while Puello recovered from a concussion. I got the data from www.mlbfarm.com, which compiles the info from minor league box scores and gameday.
Table 1 – Puello stat breakdown vs. R. (GB/BIP, FB/BIP,
LD/BIP, PU/BIP)
Dates
|
PA
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
OBP
|
ISO
|
OPS
|
K%
|
BB%
|
GB
|
FB
|
LD
|
PU
|
4/3-5/5
|
73
|
.217
|
.288
|
.260
|
.029
|
.506
|
23.2
|
4.1
|
62
|
16
|
20
|
2
|
5/9-5/30
|
34
|
.240
|
.240
|
.424
|
.040
|
.704
|
2.9
|
14.7
|
65
|
10
|
25
|
0
|
5/31-6/9
|
18
|
.000
|
.000
|
.222
|
.000
|
.222
|
11.1
|
11.1
|
83
|
17
|
0
|
0
|
6/10-8/4
|
61
|
.196
|
.231
|
.317
|
.118
|
.631
|
17.7
|
8.1
|
51
|
29
|
17.5
|
2.5
|
8/5-9/1
|
58
|
.300
|
.371
|
.397
|
.240
|
.937
|
22.4
|
8.6
|
46
|
19
|
24
|
11
|
Total
|
244
|
.220
|
.264
|
.326
|
.101
|
.647
|
18.4
|
8.2
|
57.5
|
19.5
|
19.5
|
3.5
|
Even
though Puello didn’t hit much against righties throughout the summer, he kept
his OBP up thanks to an average walk rate and, as always, a high number of
HBP’s. The power started to show up over the last 3 months, although he kicked
it into another gear in August. The low BABIP totals could be considered poor
luck to an extent, but he was such a groundball machine for the first two
months that it’s not really surprising that his BABIP was so low for the first
two months. However, the BABIP in the 4th group does seem a little
low, as he had already started hitting the ball for more power off of righties,
and had less extreme groundball tendencies.
Table 2 – Puello stat breakdown vs. L. (GB/BIP, FB/BIP,
LD/BIP, PU/BIP)
Dates
|
PA
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
OBP
|
ISO
|
OPS
|
K%
|
BB%
|
GB
|
FB
|
LD
|
PU
|
4/3-5/5
|
21
|
.300
|
.375
|
.333
|
.100
|
.733
|
19
|
0
|
56
|
19
|
12.5
|
12.5
|
5/9-5/30
|
25
|
.409
|
.400
|
.480
|
.318
|
1.207
|
8
|
4
|
50
|
20
|
30
|
0
|
5/31-6/9
|
10
|
.000
|
.000
|
.100
|
.000
|
.100
|
20
|
10
|
71
|
0
|
29
|
0
|
6/10-8/4
|
33
|
.423
|
.563
|
.545
|
.385
|
1.353
|
24.2
|
15.2
|
59
|
29
|
12
|
0
|
8/5-9/1
|
38
|
.250
|
.350
|
.368
|
.156
|
.774
|
29
|
7.9
|
33
|
48
|
19
|
0
|
Total
|
127
|
.312
|
.385
|
.409
|
.220
|
.942
|
21.3
|
7.9
|
51
|
27
|
19.5
|
2.5
|
Puello
clearly had more success against lefties, but it’s hard not to notice how much
of an effect BABIP played in his splits. While it doesn’t account for the
difference in ISO against lefties and righties, his splits would look less
extreme if the BABIP’s were more similar. Since Puello put more fly balls in
play against lefties, it’s not surprising he had a higher rate of extra base
hits against them. One ugly trend in these stats is that Puello’s K% against
lefties kept increasing throughout the season, but it should be noted that
these samples are so small that the difference of a few strikeouts makes a big
difference in the overall rate. Still, outside of that 10-day hitless streak,
Puello provided from average to beastly production against lefties throughout the
season, and so he should be capable if forced into the short side of a platoon
at the major league level this season.
Overall,
Puello made the necessary adjustments to improve from the beginning of the
season to the end, which is what you hope to see from a prospect when he
reaches a new level. He didn’t dominate the level like he had AA in 2013,
which, when combined with all of the biogenesis speculation, makes people believe that
he’s more dud than stud, but I think that’s unfair. I think people’s expectations
were too high for him, as if he should’ve just rolled into the high offense
environment of the PCL and dominated from the start. Although the talent is
generally considered very similar across the two levels – I’ve even heard
people describe AA as more talented but AAA more experienced – the difference’s
can be tough for an aggressive hitter (or anyone) to overcome. Most of the
pitchers in AAA are more experienced,
and they know how to pitch instead of just getting by on the quality of their
stuff.
In
a perfect world, Puello would be sent back to AAA to start the 2015 season, and
perhaps that’s what will happen. But because the Mets added him to their 40-man
roster before the 2012 season – a decision that’s merits are well past the
point of debating – he has already used up all of his options, so the Mets will
have to keep him on the big club or risk losing him on waivers. Of course, if
someone claims him off waivers, the Mets can always rescind the waivers and
keep him around, but they can only go through that process once – if he were to
go on waivers later in the season and be claimed, the Mets would lose him for
good. If a team were to claim him off waivers, they would be required to add
him to their 25-man roster and play him at the major league level too. While
that may seem like a long shot at first glance, there is no risk in picking up
Puello as a 4th/5th outfielder with the upside to be much
more for teams that don’t figure to be in contention, or who need an outfielder
who can mash lefties, or even just a backup center fielder. Puello has played
171/672 minor league games in center field, his 2nd most common
position in the minors. He has a rocket arm even by RF standards, and the speed
to handle CF, so he could at minimum provide defensive value. The Braves
recently signed Eric Young Jr. to play outfield, you don’t think they’d take a
chance on Puello?
Astronomy Fact Card #8! Learn more about our very own #SolarSystem here: http://t.co/wFKqxDADDn @NASA #astronomy pic.twitter.com/1HkKIJbsVV
— Chandra Observatory (@chandraxray) February 20, 2015
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