Astromets Mind: February 2015

Saturday, February 28, 2015

Eric Campbell: Was this Souper Utility guy just Souper Lucky Last Year?


Photo from mets360.com


            For a lot of Mets fans, Eric Campbell came out of nowhere in 2014 to be an interesting right-handed bat off the bench who could play the corner positions acceptably. For those that follow the minor leagues closely, he was a long-time depth guy (drafted by the Mets in the 8th round of 2008) who had been beating up some on AA and AAA pitching since 2012, but who never hit for enough power to profile as a starter at the corner positions he played less than spectacular defense at. Last year, Campbell was one of the last cuts in spring training, and then a slow start from Josh Satin opened a door for a red-hot Soup to get the call. Soup came up and had some big hits in his first week with the club, especially in the pinch-hitting role, and he quickly became a go-to guy for Terry Collins. But Soup didn’t hit in the majors like he had in the minors, so I wanted to take a closer look at his season.
            To start, let’s compare his overall major league stats with what he’s been doing in the PCL the past two years.

Table 1a – Eric Campbell’s stats with Las Vegas in 2013-14 and the Mets in 2014
Team
PA
AVG
BABIP
OBP
ISO
K%
BB%
XBH (HR)
wRC+
2013 LV
425
.314
.357
.435
.161
14.1
15.5
36 (8)
148
2014 LV
163
.355
.398
.442
.170
12.3
12.3
18 (3)
157
Mets
211
.263
.348
.322
.095
26.1
8.1
12 (3)
97

Table 1b – Batted ball and extra base hit rates (GB/BIP, FB/BIP, LD/BIP, XBH/AB)
Team
GB%
FB%
LD%
XBH%
2013 LV
55
28
17
10.6
2014 LV
47
23
30
12.8
Mets
55
27.5
17.5
6.3


Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Comparing Individual Mets 2014 BABIP and xBABIP

            At this point in the season (offseason?), there aren’t many new topics to discuss until the games finally start. The biggest news story to break in Mets spring training camp so far is that Lucas Duda has been dealing with a slight left intercostals/oblique strain from overworking this offseason. While that doesn’t sound serious right now, it’ll be very important that Duda gets passed that issue before the season starts. While I was looking for other interesting Mets news on twitter today – and tweeting out some fun David Wright #FaceOfMLB votes – I ran across an interesting tweet from ESPN’s Mark Simon. The tweet highlighted the following information:

Table 1 – Results by batted ball type from 2014
Batted Ball Type
AVG
ISO
BABIP
tOPS+*
Ground Balls
.248
.021
.248
49
Fly Balls
.153
.285
.079
61
Line Drives
.659
.338
.637
366
Bunts
.404
.000
.404
133
*tOPS+ is the OPS for the split relative to a player’s total OPS


            While this information isn’t particularly new, it got me thinking about how the current Mets fared in terms of BABIP in 2014. BABIP isn’t particularly a new concept, and if you like advanced stats even just a little, you probably have a rough idea of either how most Mets fared in terms of 2014 BABIP, or at least which players outperformed/underperformed league average BABIP expectations. Even though league average BABIP has been pretty steady over the past 10 years, individual players BABIP can vary quite a lot from season to season, and so analysts have come up with various formulas for an expected BABIP formula (xBABIP). After some fairly simple xBABIP equations initially, these xBABIP calculations have evolved to take into account more factors than are sometimes even available to the casual fan. For example, Jeff Zimmerman at Rotographs introduced one that uses Inside Edge data and player speeds. I collected the relevant xBABIP information for the 2015 Mets and compiled them into Table 2.


Table 2 – Comparing Mets 2014 BABIP and xBABIP
Name
PA
xBABIP2014*
BABIP2014
dBABIP**
654
.297
.265
-0.032
642
.310
.322
0.012
Lucas Duda
596
.314
.283
-0.031
586
.290
.325
0.035
452
.297
.341
0.044
421
.289
.259
-0.030
419
.267
.283
0.016
274
.285
.265
-0.020
211
.283
.348
0.065
205
.320
.351
0.031
189
.284
.267
-0.017
174
.292
.322
0.030
168
.248
.229
-0.019
130
.356
.361
0.005
Dilson Herrera
66
.281
.256
-0.025
*xBABIP values from this Fangraphs piece
** dBABIP = BABIP - xBABIP


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