2015 Splits in Review: Scarlyn Reyes

Scarlyn Reyes, Sand Gnats, 2015

The lanky righty is getting a little older for prospect status, but a move to the bullpen should let the Mets take advantage of his promising fastball

2015 with Savannah: 16 GS, 92.2 IP, 4.56 RA/3.40 ERA/3.76 FIP/3.69 xFIP, 87 H, 47 R (35 ER), 78 K: 32 BB (19.6 K%: 8 BB%), .242 AVG, 297 BABIP, 66.4 LOB%, 0.49 HR/9, 90 ERA-/99 FIP-/97 xFIP-, 95 wRC+, 52 GB%: 21 FB%: 20.3 LD%: 6.6 PU%, 1.08 GO/AO, 8.8% HR/FB

2015 with St. Lucie: 7 GS, 35.1 IP, 4.84 RA/3.82 ERA/4.04 FIP/4.11 xFIP, 39 H, 19 R (15 ER), 24 K: 18 BB (14.6 K%: 10.9 BB%), .277/.372/.376, .325 BABIP, 70.5 LOB%, 0.25 HR/9, 119 ERA-/126 FIP-/128 xFIP-, 137 wRC+, 50.9 GB%: 21.6 FB%: 21.6 LD%: 6 PU%, 1.04 GO/AO, 4% HR/FB

The Mets signed Scarlyn Reyes out of the Dominican Republic in February 2013 for $25,000, getting him for a bargain because he was already 22, which is old for an international free agent. Reyes was interesting because he was sitting mid-90’s with his fastball, and maxing out at 97 MPH. After spending 2013 in the DSL, the Mets brought Reyes stateside for extended spring training and time with the Cyclones in 2014, and then he split 2015 between Savannah and St. Lucie. He’s been a starter to this point, but I don’t think anyone sees him in that role long-term because his stuff just hasn’t been consistent. Below I look at some trends from his 2015 splits, and then share GIF links from his 2015 MiLB.tv starts. I was able to catch 3 of his Savannah starts on MiLB.tv last year before his promotion, so there are a good number of Reyes GIF’s at the bottom of this page – it’s not the best sample size, but I listened to most of his starts with St. Lucie too.

Scarlyn Reyes 2015 spray charts vs. LHB (left) and vs. RHB (right)

Table 1 – Scarlyn Reyes 2015 Splits by month

Month	TBF	ERA-	FIP-	BB%	K%	wRC+	GB%
April	53	102	87	9.4	18.9	117	50
May	137	83	88	6.6	14.6	95	47.6
June	103	102	117	7.8	26.2	62	60.9
SAL July	105	80	99	9.5	20	116	51.4
FSL July	29	420	132	10.3	17.2	259	47.4
August	111	68	124	12.6	12.6	107	55.7
September	25	93	130	4	20	123	33.3

Table 2 – Scarlyn Reyes 2015 Platoon Splits

League	Split	TBF	HR	BB%	K%	BABIP	ISO	wRC+	GB%
SAL	LHB	157	2	7	15.9	.314	.112	102	58.8
SAL	RHB	241	3	8.7	22	.290	.109	91	47.1
FSL	LHB	68	1	8.8	13.2	.327	.129	139	56.9
FSL	RHB	97	0	12.4	15.5	.323	.076	135	46.2

Reyes stayed afloat between the two A-ball levels during his first taste of full-season ball, but he rarely stood out on the mound in 2015. I didn’t think he was the best option in the Savannah rotation for a full-time promotion to St. Lucie, and his month plus was mixed – I would’ve gone with Martires Arias, but I guess his contract status played a role in the decision-making, as he became a minor league free agent and went to San Diego this past offseason. Reyes did a good job preventing runs in August with St. Lucie (allowed just 1 ER over 16 IP during a 3 start stretch), but FSL batters had a 137 wRC+ against him, and he walked 3+ in 4 of 7 starts, so it wasn’t exactly a dominant run. During his starts in Rome last year (aka, on MiLB.tv), Reyes lost his command for a few stretches, but would fix his problems before the inning got too far out of hand. Of his secondary pitches, I thought his hard slider was by far the most interesting, showing some nice late break action. But perhaps I just didn’t see his best changeup, as something helped him induce a much higher groundball rate against lefties last year.

Table 3 – Scarlyn Reyes 2015 Splits by Batted Ball Type

League	Type	TBF	BABIP	SAL BABIP	wOBA	SAL wOBA
SAL	FB	57	.077	.189	.266	.341
SAL	GB	151	.236	.252	.234	.243
SAL	LD	55	.782	.734	.823	.788
FSL	FB	25	.250	.219	.368	.339
FSL	GB	62	.230	.243	.224	.239
FSL	LD	25	.720	.757	.797	.805

Table 4 – Scarlyn Reyes 2015 Splits by Times Through The Order

League	Times Faced	TBF	HR	BB%	K%	BABIP	ISO	wRC+	GB%
SAL	1	146	1	11	17.1	.360	.146	139	49.5
SAL	2	139	2	7.2	22.3	.290	.119	86	50.8
SAL	3	94	2	6.4	22.3	.238	.069	56	58.8
FSL	1	63	0	15.9	14.3	.364	.056	15	53.5
FSL	2	63	0	4.8	20.6	.311	.052	78	56.5
FSL	3	37	1	10.8	5.4	.259	.207	177	38.5

There are no standout trends across both levels from these tables, so they do not add much in this case. Reyes didn’t do much to stand out to me while with Savannah, especially given his age relative to the league. I think he needs to be moved to the pen this year, where his hard fastball and slider could make him a useful reliever. I imagine he’ll still be a starter when the minor league season starts on April 7^th, but I’m not convinced he’ll still be starting when it ends in September. He did not stand out during his brief 7-start run with St. Lucie, so I doubt he’s moving up to Binghamton to start the year, but organizational needs may force him there. If so, let’s hope he can follow the path of Matt Koch from 2015 and Hansel Robles from 2014, who both thrived after being moved to the Binghamton pen.