After a breakout 2014, Reynolds offense slipped in 2015, so what was
different?
2015 with Las Vegas: 115 G, 490 PA, .267/.319/.402, 70 R, 32
2B, 5 3B, 6 HR, 65 RBI, 92 K: 32 BB (18.8 K%: 6.5 BB%), 90 wRC+, .319 BABIP,
.135 ISO, 13-17 on stolen bases (78%), 10.3 AB/XBH, 6.1 HR/FB, 44.4 GB%: 27.7
FB%: 23.2 LD%: 4.7 PU%, 10.3 SwStr%, 22.5 Whiff/Swing, 3.81 P/PA
Matt Reynolds was one of the top hitters in the minors during the 2014 season – he
finished 6th in the minor league title race with a .343 average – but
his success was largely boosted by a nearly .420 BABIP, which sent up red flags
for everyone. When his BABIP dropped about 100 points with Las Vegas in 2015,
Reynolds resulting output proved to be below average for the PCL, which may
have you thinking his prospect status fell considerably. However, after the
2014 season, I spent a
lot of words trying to figure out what level of production Reynolds would
have provided with a lower BABIP, and I ended up underselling him a little – I
concluded that he’d put up a .262/.314/.362 slash line with a .325 BABIP, so I
really just missed on the extra base hit rate. The more important conclusion
from that post, and the one expressed in many prospect reports, was that
Reynolds likely ceiling was as a utility infielder. So even though he had a somewhat disappointing season in 2015,
it didn’t hurt his projected future upside, but rather helped clarify his path
to improving it.
When I looked into why his
production had taken
a step back at midseason, I noted that his peripherals were basically the
same as in 2014, so the drop in performance was really just BABIP fueled. Reynolds
saw his K% jump to nearly 20% when he reached AAA in 2014, and it only improved
marginally in 2015 – he’s also had higher than average swinging strike and
whiff/swing rates at AAA. This doesn’t jive with what Baseball America wrote
about him in their 2016 Prospect
Guidebook, “Reynolds recognizes pitch types well and uses a short swing geared for contact to wear
out the gaps” (emphasis mine). You can get a sense of his short swing for
yourself by checking out the many GIF’s of Reynolds from 2015 linked at the
bottom of this post (or check out his 2014 page
of GIF links), but you can also see from his strikeout, swinging strike,
and whiff/swing rates that he’s been average (at best) at making contact with
that swing. If Reynolds wants to take his game to the next level, he needs to
cut his strikeout rate way down, because he’s not going to become a power
hitter, and he’s not going to set the career record for BABIP. Below I review
some splits from Reynolds 2015 to give a better profile of him as a hitter, and
point out a few things went wrong for Reynolds compared to his 2014. There was
one positive from his 2015, and that was his improvement in the field, to the
point that one scout said his defense would help Reynolds stick at the major
league level. There are both offense and defense GIF’s of Reynolds at the
bottom of this post, so you can get a better idea of what Reynolds is capable
of from the shortstop position.
Table 1 – Matthew Reynolds 2015 Splits by Month
Month
|
PA
|
AB/XBH
|
BB%
|
K%
|
BABIP
|
wRC+
|
GB%
|
SwStr%
|
Wh/Sw
|
April
|
95
|
6.8
|
9.5
|
21.1
|
.381
|
134
|
34.8
|
9.7
|
23
|
May
|
123
|
16.1
|
6.5
|
18.7
|
.297
|
57
|
42.9
|
10.1
|
21.7
|
June
|
102
|
10
|
6.9
|
15.7
|
.293
|
93
|
44.2
|
7.6
|
16.9
|
July
|
24
|
7.3
|
4.2
|
33.3
|
.308
|
93
|
42.9
|
16.5
|
30.4
|
August
|
116
|
14
|
2.6
|
17.2
|
.319
|
72
|
52.7
|
12.1
|
25.6
|
September
|
30
|
6.5
|
13.3
|
16.7
|
.333
|
112
|
47.4
|
10.1
|
23.4
|
Table 2 – Matthew Reynolds 2015 Splits by Pitcher Handedness
Throws
|
PA
|
AB/XBH
|
BB%
|
K%
|
BABIP
|
wRC+
|
GB%
|
SwStr%
|
Wh/Sw
|
R
|
329
|
12
|
6.1
|
21.6
|
.322
|
74
|
47
|
11.5
|
25
|
L
|
161
|
8.1
|
7.5
|
13
|
.315
|
118
|
39.7
|
7.7
|
17.3
|
Reynolds
missed about three weeks in July with a wrist injury, and he wasn’t the same
batter after returning – he whiffed more, hit the ball on the ground more, and
barely walked. His walk rate dropped every month, and I noticed he became more
aggressive at the plate early in the count, which is backed up by a declining
P/PA throughout the season. It seemed like he was trying to hit his way out of
his extended May slump, but instead, the added aggression just put Reynolds in
pitcher’s counts more often. In 2015, 55.1% of his PA’s ended in a pitcher’s
count (0-1, 0-2, 1-2, 2-2), which was a big rise from the 49.2% of PA’s that
ended in a pitcher’s count with Las Vegas during 2014. I think Reynolds let the
pressure of being so close to a promotion get to him, as the comments and calls
for his promotion started in some corners during last Spring Training. Without
insight from Reynolds himself, it’s impossible to know for sure, but
considering his former 51s teammate Noah Syndergaard said the same social media
treatment got to him during the 2014 season, it’s not too crazy of a theory.
Notice
that Reynolds manages much better than average production against lefties
despite a very average BABIP, and that’s due to a combination of more contact
and more extra base hits against lefties (as Sinatra said, “You can’t have one
without the other!”). The Twins new Korean import Byung Ho Park can choose to overlook
strikeouts – he said, “Striking out doesn’t fear me, it’s just an out” –
but that’s because he posted a .370 ISO in Korea last year, so his offensive
game is about power. Matt Reynolds batting average-based offensive game cannot
get away with that line of thinking. However, he did strike out more often against
LHP’s in 2015, so it’s not necessarily a L/R thing.
Table 3 – Matthew Reynolds 2015 Splits by Batted Ball Type
Batted Ball
|
PA
|
BABIP
|
PCL BABIP
|
wOBA
|
PCL wOBA
|
Fly Ball
|
99
|
.189
|
.187
|
.313
|
.389
|
Groundball
|
163
|
.241
|
.251
|
.227
|
.239
|
Line Drive
|
83
|
.667
|
.729
|
.739
|
.771
|
Table 4 – Matthew Reynolds 2014 Splits by Batted Ball Type,
Las Vegas only
Batted Ball
|
PA
|
BABIP
|
PCL BABIP
|
wOBA
|
PCL wOBA
|
Fly Ball
|
65
|
.283
|
.224
|
.442
|
.453
|
Groundball
|
102
|
.300
|
.257
|
.287
|
.242
|
Line Drive
|
53
|
.598
|
.746
|
.716
|
.777
|
Table 5 – Matthew Reynolds 2015 Splits by Batted Ball
Direction
Field
|
PA
|
%
|
AB/XBH
|
BABIP
|
PCL BABIP*
|
wOBA
|
PCL wOBA*
|
GB%
|
Center
|
110
|
30.3
|
15.3
|
.312
|
.360
|
.328
|
.384
|
45.5
|
Opposite
|
135
|
37.2
|
5.5
|
.318
|
.265
|
.387
|
.299
|
28.4
|
Pull
|
118
|
32.5
|
9.0
|
.348
|
.345
|
.395
|
.450
|
62.9
|
*RHB only
Table 6 – Matthew Reynolds 2014 Splits by Batted Ball
Direction, Las Vegas only
Field
|
PA
|
%
|
AB/XBH
|
BABIP
|
PCL BABIP*
|
wOBA
|
PCL wOBA*
|
GB%
|
Center
|
78
|
33.6
|
14.8
|
.474
|
.394
|
.454
|
.421
|
35.9
|
Opposite
|
64
|
27.6
|
6.0
|
.317
|
.274
|
.362
|
.307
|
25
|
Pull
|
90
|
38.8
|
8.1
|
.369
|
.338
|
.458
|
.445
|
63.8
|
*RHB only
Reynolds
wears out the right-center field gap and RF line, so it’s good to see he went
to RF more in 2015. His overall production when hitting the ball the other way
improved, but he also hit a higher rate of pop ups over there in 2015. The more
impactful changes were the drops in success he had on fly balls and balls hit
back up the middle. It’s easy to explain his drop in fly ball production, as
his BABIP on fly balls dropped 100 points (the league as a whole saw a big drop
in BABIP and wOBA production on fly balls), which is a lot of extra base hits
not falling in. His production on balls hit back up the middle can get the same
explanation, but there was something else that stood out to me because it
appears to support some observations I had watching him regularly. In 2014,
Reynolds got a lot of hits on line drives and soft fly balls into shallow CF,
but a lot of those hits turned into groundballs in 2015, which had a huge
effect on his BABIP. Remembering that the spray chart marks represent where a
data stringer said the ball was fielded, check out the cluster of singles to CF
on Reynolds 2014 spray chart (see top of page), and notice how many fly outs he
had to CF instead on the 2015 side. It’s not possible to track defensive
positioning against minor league players, but I’d guess center fielders starter
playing him shallower in 2015 – that or hitting the ball further worked against
him by robbing him of those hits that fell just in front of center fielders
during 2014.
Reynolds
finds himself in an interesting position during this Spring Training, as he’s
on the 40-man but behind there’s a log-jam of potential middle infielders that
may prevent him from winning a bench spot out of the gate. ESPN’s Adam Rubin projected
Reynolds for the bench in his Opening
Day Roster Projections 1.0 post, but he assumes that either Ruben Tejada is
traded, and/or Asdrubal Cabrera starts the season on the DL. Considering how
long he’s been in the Mets system, it would be sad to see Tejada go, but this
is a business, and the Mets would both net a prospect (not a great one mind
you) and save money by using Reynolds for the bench over Tejada. I’d like to
see him post better contact rates at AAA first, but I think Reynolds to the
Mets bench will happen in 2016, and I think he should be able to replace the ~1
fWAR Tejada provided the Mets the past 2 seasons.
2015 Astromets Mind Coverage of Matt Reynolds
Mmm, pi! Use π like @NASA scientists + engineers. Take the #NASAPiDayChallenge now: https://t.co/rQ5jd9zwpf #PiDay pic.twitter.com/xJabU3QFjm— Curiosity Rover (@MarsCuriosity) March 14, 2016
Leave your comment
Post a Comment