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| Corey Oswalt |
The 2012 draft pick had a good full season debut with Savannah, and
could be useful down the line for the Mets
RH SP, 22
2015 with Savannah: 23 GS, 128.2 IP, 4.13 RA/3.36 ERA/3.06 FIP/3.16 xFIP, 153 H, 59 R (48 ER), 99 K: 21 BB (18.3 K%: 3.9 BB%), .295/.327/.393, .355 BABIP*, .094 ISO, 104 wRC+ª, 69.6 LOB%, 0.42 HR/9, 89 ERA-/81 FIP-/83 xFIP-, 49.6 GB%: 21.7 FB%: 22.1 LD%: 6.6 PU%, 0.99 GO/AO, 6.7% HR/FB
*.422 BABIP allowed at home, .301 BABIP allowed on the road
ª104 wRC+ with the bases empty and with runners on base
The
Mets drafted Corey Oswalt out of Madison HS in San Diego with their 7th
round pick in the 2012 draft aware that he was going to be a long-term project
on the mound. He had mostly been a third baseman in high school, but he surged
on the mound during his senior year, and former exec Paul DePodesta saw
him a few times before the draft. The Mets took a chance on him, and
Oswalt quickly gave up his commitment to play for UC Santa Barbara. Oswalt didn’t
have a great debut season with Kingsport after signing, and then he missed most
of 2013 battling injuries, but he finally broke through with a nice year for
Brooklyn in 2014, which earned him a starter’s role with Savannah in 2015. He
allowed a .355 BABIP last year, and I think that masks the quality of his season. He
induced groundballs at nearly a 50% rate, only walked 4% of batters faced, and
maintained an average strikeout rate, so it was actually a pretty good year for the
righty. Below I take a look at some of the trends from his 2015 splits and then
share GIF’s from the 5 MiLB.tv starts I caught last year.
Table 1 – Corey Oswalt’s 2015 Splits by Month
Month
|
TBF
|
ERA-
|
FIP-
|
BB%
|
K%
|
BABIP
|
ISO
|
wRC+
|
GB%
|
April
|
99
|
128
|
59
|
4
|
20.2
|
.453
|
.053
|
129
|
45.2
|
May
|
120
|
124
|
86
|
4.2
|
20.8
|
.393
|
.162
|
134
|
55.2
|
June
|
99
|
59
|
93
|
6.1
|
15.2
|
.329
|
.076
|
98
|
48
|
July
|
120
|
96
|
116
|
4.2
|
10.8
|
.320
|
.125
|
111
|
48.5
|
August
|
60
|
16
|
30
|
1.7
|
31.7
|
.350
|
0
|
36
|
59
|
September
|
43
|
65
|
58
|
0
|
16.3
|
.278
|
.093
|
48
|
41.7
|
Table 2 – Corey Oswalt’s 2015 Platoon Splits
Split
|
TBF
|
HR
|
BB%
|
K%
|
BABIP
|
ISO
|
wRC+
|
GB%
|
LHB
|
227
|
1
|
4.8
|
19.8
|
.359
|
.085
|
96
|
56.9
|
RHB
|
314
|
5
|
3.2
|
17.2
|
.361
|
.100
|
109
|
44.7
|
Oswalt
became a more effective pitcher for Savannah as the season went on, and then
finished the season red hot over his final 6 starts: 32 IP, 1.69 ERA, 30 H,
23.2 K%: 0.8 BB%. He sits about 88-92 MPH with his fastball – both the
four-seamer and the two-seamer, which is the more common pitch. He also mixes
in a changeup, slider, and curveball, and can throw all 4 pitches for strikes
with consistency. The changeup is currently his second best pitch, showing a
nice sinking and fading action, and flashing above average potential. I think
his changeup likely played a role in his success against LHB’s last year, as he
struck LHB’s out more often than RHB’s, and induced a 57% groundball rate from
them. His breaking pitches show usefulness, but project to max out as average
pitches. They fit his plan when he can keep them down, but become BP when left up.
Table 3 – Corey Oswalt’s 2015 Splits by Batted Ball Type
Type
|
TBF
|
BABIP
|
SAL BABIP
|
wOBA
|
SAL wOBA
|
FB
|
89
|
.214
|
.189
|
.348
|
.341
|
GB
|
213
|
.304
|
.252
|
.298
|
.243
|
LD
|
91
|
.733
|
.734
|
.736
|
.788
|
Table 4 – Corey Oswalt’s 2015 Splits by Times Faced
Times Faced
|
TBF
|
AB/XBH
|
BB%
|
K%
|
BABIP
|
ISO
|
wRC+
|
GB%
|
1
|
206
|
21.8
|
3.9
|
19.9
|
.357
|
.056
|
87
|
51
|
2
|
203
|
21.4
|
3.9
|
20.2
|
.349
|
.093
|
99
|
50
|
3
|
126
|
7.9
|
4
|
12.7
|
.373
|
.159
|
137
|
46.5
|
His
BABIP allowed was high throughout the game, but he didn’t take a big hit in
effectiveness until his third time through. When I saw him, he had trouble
keeping his stuff down later in the game, and 88 MPH belt-high fastballs get
crushed at all levels – the homerun he allowed on 7/11 was on a meatball in the
6th inning. From Table 3, Oswalt’s BABIP allowed on groundballs was
much higher than the SAL average, so I calculated his expected BABIP, and it’s
~.330. He still would’ve allowed more than a hit per inning at that rate, but he also would’ve held SAL batters to below league average production.
If
Oswalt’s breaking stuff sharpens up, he should be able to stick as a starter
with back of the rotation upside – think Dillon Gee, if all goes right. If not,
he’ll need to move to the bullpen, but his sinker-changeup combo and success
against lefties will make him a potentially useful option – think Miguel Socolovich, if all goes right. He allowed 10.7 H/9-innings last year, so his
overall stat line immediately causes hesitation, but he didn’t allow a lot of
hard contact in the starts I saw – to be fair, 4/5 below were among his best
starts all year. The rate stats not BABIP dependent were average (K%) or better
(BB%, GB%, HR/9) for the season, and that matches the pitcher I saw on MiLB.tv.
I think Oswalt is currently a little overlooked in the system, but that could
easily change with a similar season put up at the FSL this year. He’s not the
high upside guy #MetsTwitter goes nuts for, but I think he’s a high floor guy
who can be useful to the Mets down the line – think mid-2018, if all goes right.
Astromets Mind Coverage
(Poor video day)
ICYMI, @NASA captured a "supernova shockwave" for the first time, so if you ever wanted to watch a star explode ...https://t.co/qIKxew6eUH— USA TODAY (@USATODAY) March 25, 2016
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