The outfielder is behind 5 starting caliber major leaguers and another
top prospect already on the Mets 40-man, but after a standout rookie season in
the PCL, can Travis Taijeron help the Mets or some other major league club?
2015 with Las Vegas 51s: 127 G, 478 PA, .274/.393/.536, 67 R, 22 2B, 3 3B, 25 HR, 71 RBI, 147 K: 65 BB (30.8 K%: 13.6 BB%) – 22.6 Swinging strikeout%, 147 wRC+, .367 BABIP, .261 ISO, 2-4 on stolen bases, 15 HBP, 27.2 GB%: 41.6 FB%: 26.4 LD%: 4.8 PU%, 13.7 SwStr%, 31.7 Whiff/Swing, 4.02 P/PA
Although
he surely benefitted from playing in the PCL last year, Travis Taijeron’s 25
homeruns and 50 extra base hits led all Mets minor leaguers in 2015, and as you
can see from the 27 GIF’s of 2015 Taijeron at the bottom of this page, he
wasn’t getting cheap hits. The GIF’s represent ~25% of his hits from last year,
and most of the examples are extra base hits, so you’re naturally getting a
biased look at the best of Taijeron. Still, they should give you a sense of the
all-or-nothing approach Taijeron has when he swings. Once that switch triggers
in Taijeron’s head telling him to swing, his bat path is set, and any ball in
its way is at risk of being dented. Of course, any slight misjudgment by
Taijeron and he’s left giving the pitcher (and anyone down the 3B line) a nice
breeze from his whiff, because he can’t stop or adjust that swing’s path once
going. He can hit breaking stuff if he identifies it early, but he’s best at
waiting for, and then crushing, fastballs. I wish they tracked exit-velocity at
the PCL level, because I bet Taijeron’s numbers would be impressive and have
some team willing to overlook his crazy high 30.8 K%, which was supported by
his crazy high 13.7 SwStr% and crazy high 31.7 Whiff/Swing rate. He’s basically
the right-handed version of Kirk Nieuwenhuis, except nobody acts like he can
still play CF anymore (sorry Kirk!). His range is maybe average for a corner
outfielder, but he has a strong arm and was consistent in RF for Las Vegas last
year. He hits the ball in the air at an extreme rate, with his 27.2 GB% the 4th
lowest in the PCL last year among batters with at least 75 PA, but that plays
extremely well in the PCL – think opposite of what
I said about Gabriel Ynoa. In total, Taijeron has the classic AAAA PCL
profile, and that might eventually tempt some team into trying him out in a
platoon/bench role at the highest level, but that likely leads to a more
prosperous career in Japan (hello Andrew Brown). Given the Mets current crop of
major league outfielders, there isn’t really a role for Taijeron at the major
league level, but he’d at least be in the competition for the 5th
outfielder’s role if the Mets trade Alejandro De Aza. Below I look at some
splits from Taijeron’s impressive 2015 season, and then share links to most of
the Taijeron GIF coverage posted here at Astromets Mind.
Table 1 – Travis Taijeron 2015 Splits by Month
Month
|
PA
|
AB/XBH
|
BB%
|
K%
|
TTO%
|
wRC+
|
GB%
|
SwStr%
|
Wh/Sw
|
April
|
66
|
9.7
|
7.6
|
36.5
|
51.5
|
173
|
11.4
|
14
|
30.8
|
May
|
89
|
10.1
|
18
|
29.2
|
49.4
|
144
|
24.4
|
15
|
33.8
|
June
|
98
|
7.3
|
11.2
|
28.6
|
45.9
|
143
|
34
|
14.5
|
32.5
|
July
|
103
|
6.7
|
19.4
|
31.1
|
54.4
|
153
|
29.2
|
11.9
|
30.2
|
August
|
92
|
7.4
|
10.9
|
30.4
|
48.9
|
122
|
32.1
|
14.3
|
32.7
|
September
|
30
|
8
|
10
|
30
|
43.3
|
118
|
25
|
12.3
|
27.6
|
Table 2 – Travis Taijeron’s 2015 Splits by Home/Away
Split
|
PA
|
AB/XBH
|
BB%
|
K%
|
BABIP
|
wRC+
|
GB%
|
SwStr%
|
Wh/Sw
|
Away
|
228
|
7.1
|
13.2
|
29.4
|
.430
|
162
|
27.2
|
13.8
|
32.3
|
Home
|
250
|
8.8
|
14
|
32
|
.304
|
127
|
27.2
|
13.7
|
31.3
|
Table 3 – Travis Taijeron 2015 Splits by Pitcher Handedness
Throws
|
PA
|
AB/XBH
|
BB%
|
K%
|
wRC+
|
GB%
|
SwStr%
|
Wh/Sw
|
LHP
|
165
|
6.8
|
14.5
|
26.7
|
173
|
22.6
|
12.8
|
29.2
|
RHP
|
313
|
8.6
|
13.1
|
32.9
|
128
|
29.9
|
14.2
|
33.1
|
Taijeron’s
overall production slowed down over the final 6 weeks of the season, but he was
surprisingly consistent for Las Vegas in 2015 considering that ridiculous K%. You’d
hope to see Taijeron make strides in his strikeout and contact rates as the
season went on, but he showed no willingness to adjust his approach, and
considering the results, you can’t really blame him. Even as strikeout rates in
the majors rise, a 30+% strikeout rate at the PCL is going to be a tough sell
for a major league team, but unless he’s willing to alter his approach with
two-strikes, I don’t see Taijeron’s strikeout numbers improving. He was a very
similar hitter at home and on the road last year, but he was much luckier on
balls in plays away from Cashman Field, which is the major difference in
production rates in his Home/Away splits. His HR-rate against LHP’s was double
his rate against RHP’s, and his ISO against LHP’s was third overall among PCL batters
with 75 PA facing LHP’s last year. That type of power against left-handed
pitching is worthy of a shot as the 5th outfielder in my opinion (on
a De Aza-less Mets team), and a Mets outfield of Yoenis Cespedes, Juan Lagares,
and Travis Taijeron might be their
best option against LHP’s. Of course, that would mean further cutting into
Michael Conforto’s development against LHP’s, which I don’t agree with,
especially since we have little evidence to think he can’t hit lefties.
Table 4 – Travis Taijeron 2015 Splits by Batted Ball Type
Batted Ball Type*
|
PA
|
BABIP
|
PCL BABIP
|
wOBA
|
PCL wOBA
|
Fly ball
|
104
|
.262
|
.187
|
.709ª
|
.389
|
Groundball
|
69
|
.159
|
.251
|
.157
|
.239
|
Line Drive
|
66
|
.769
|
.729
|
.792
|
.771
|
*Taijeron went 1-12 on ball labeled pop ups
ª5th best among batters with at least 40 fly
balls hit at the PCL level in 2015
Table 5 – Travis Taijeron 2015 Splits by Batted Ball
Direction
Batted Ball Direction
|
PA
|
%
|
BABIP
|
PCL BABIP*
|
wOBA
|
PCL wOBA*
|
GB%
|
Center
|
91
|
36.4
|
.361
|
.360
|
.523
|
.384
|
15.4
|
Opposite
|
74
|
29.6
|
.273
|
.265
|
.489
|
.299
|
23
|
Pull
|
85
|
34
|
.461
|
.345
|
.634
|
.450
|
44
|
*RHB only
Table 5 – Travis Taijeron 2015 Splits by Times Facing a
Pitcher
Times Faced
|
PA
|
AB/XBH
|
BB%
|
K%
|
wRC+
|
GB%
|
SwStr%
|
Wh/Sw
|
1
|
301
|
8.1
|
15
|
31.2
|
140
|
28.5
|
13.4
|
32.5
|
2
|
118
|
7.3
|
9.3
|
31.4
|
158
|
29.2
|
13.8
|
29.5
|
3
|
57
|
7.7
|
15.8
|
24.6
|
140
|
17.6
|
15.4
|
33.3
|
One
thing that’s nice about Taijeron is that his power plays in all direction, as
you can see from Table 5 and his spray charts above. Exit velocity would be
amazing, but I’d settle for accurate fly ball distances from the minors, and
again I think Taijeron would’ve ranked among the leaders in that category. Of
course, fly ball distance in the PCL is likely boosted by the many high
elevation stadiums present, which begs the question of how his power will
translate to major league stadiums. As you can see from Table 4, he was among
the PCL leaders in wOBA on fly balls, and his value as a hitter essentially
came from his success on fly balls. Finally, while pinch-hitting against
relievers is not the same thing as facing a starter for the first time, Table 5
shows that he had plenty of success against pitchers when facing them for the
first time in a game.
Of
course, Travis Taijeron might be one of those rare modern hitters who doesn’t
make contact as often as teams would like, but who consistently makes hard contact
when they do connect, allowing them to stay productive with the highest of
strikeout rates. There were 18 major leaguers with a 30+ K% and at least 150 PA
at the major league level last year, and 10 of those players put up at least 1
fWAR, so it’s possible to be productive with the extreme K%, it’s just hard. From
looking at that Fangraphs leaderboard, I’d peg Taijeron to put up a final slash
line somewhere between two 2015 Astros players: Chris Carter, who hit
.199/.307/.427 for a 101 wRC+, and Jason Castro, who hit .211/.283/.365 for a
76 wRC+, depending on how his power and BABIP success translates. The best hitters of that 30+K%
group by wRC+ (Miguel Sano, Domingo Santana, Colby Rasmus, Randal Grichuk,
Chris Davis, and Kris Bryant) all had a .300+ BABIP to keep their average up, so
it takes power and a little luck to be great while whiffing that much.
Taijeron’s path to the Mets is not
really clear (as of this writing), and his extreme strikeout rates hurt his
chances of ever sticking at the highest level, but the power display he put on
with Las Vegas is not common in the game right now, so he’s not a total lost
cause. Although he’s not going to net the Mets anything of value in a trade, he
may be of interest to other teams lacking the OF depth the Mets came into
Spring Training with at the ML level. His age and inexperience really hurt his
chances of getting a good look, but his power against lefties suggests he could
at least be useful in a strict platoon. Overall, I have very low expectations
that Taijeron will ever be more than the AAAA player he was in 2015, but there
would be very little risk in a team trying him as a 5th outfielder
who mostly faces lefties in the majors, with a potentially very nice reward.
2015 GIFs of Travis Taijeron
80% completed as China's 500-meter aperture spherical telescope (FAST) installation in progress pic.twitter.com/m4NAyPA7fN— China Xinhua News (@XHNews) March 9, 2016
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