Lutz Leadz 51z Attack Over the ‘Topez

Las Vegas 51s @ Albuquerque Isotopes

July 16, 2015

Matt Bowman @ John Lannan

Teams	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9		R	H	E
Las Vegas	3	5	0	0	1	0	0	0	1		10	17	0
Albuquerque	0	0	1	0	0	4	0	0	0		5	10	0

W: Bowman (6-10, 5.53 ERA); L: Lannan (5-4, 4.57 ERA)

MiLB.com Boxscore

The Highlights:

Pitchers

Matt Bowman – 6 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 3 BB, 5 SO, 2 HR, 99 Pitches (64 Strikes), 10 GO: 1 FO, (1-3, R, RBI (1))

Zack Thornton (3.73 ERA) – 1 IP, 2 SO, 1 FO

Chase Huchingson (0.61 ERA) – 1 IP, H, BB, 1 GO

Chase Bradford (3.54 ERA) – 1 IP, H, SO, 1 GO

Batters

Dilson Herrera – 2-5, 2 R

T.J. Rivera – 3-5, 2 R, RBI (16)

Anthony Recker – 2-4, 3 R, 3B (1), 3 RBI (19), HBP

Brandon Allen – 2-5, R, RBI (44)

Zach Lutz – 4-5, 2B (1), 3 RBI (3)

Travis Taijeron – 2-5, 2B (12), RBI (45), 3 SO

Cory Vaughn – 1-4, R, 2B (8), SO

Recap

            The Mets surprised many by announcing the release of Alex Castellanos Thursday afternoon, with word that Castellanos would be heading to Japan to continue his career. In his place the Mets have signed Zach Lutz, the Mets 5^th round pick from 2007, who has a .642 OPS in 31 AB’s in the majors, and a .870 OPS in 1110 AB at the AAA level. Lutz came back to the team with a bang in this game, leading an unrelenting 51s attack with 4 hits and 3 RBI’s. Matt Bowman got off to a great start on the mound for Las Vegas, but then struggled with control in the 6^th. All 5 runs he’d allow came off of two homeruns hit by Isotopes lefties, which makes 12 homeruns allowed to lefties this year (only 1 allowed to a RHB). After Bowman settled down to finish the 6^th, the 51s bullpen came out for the final 3 innings and kept the Isotopes off the board.

Rainiers Outslug The 51s In The Series Finale

Las Vegas 51s @ Tacoma Rainiers

July 3, 2015

Rainy Lara @ Stephen Landazuri

Teams	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9		R	H	E
Las Vegas	0	1	1	2	3	0	0	0	0		7	9	0
Tacoma	0	0	4	3	3	1	1	0	X		12	16	0

W: Luetge (1-2, 6.10 ERA); L: Black (0-2, 15.88 ERA)

MiLB.com Boxscore

The Highlights:

Pitchers

Rainy Lara (6.75 ERA) – 4 IP, 10 H, 7 R, 3 SO, 2 HR, 61 Pitches (46 Strikes), 4 GO: 2 FO

Vic Black – 1 IP, 3 H, 3 R, BB, 2 SO, HR, 1 FO

John Church (3.86 ERA) – 1 IP, H, R, BB, SO, 2 HBP, 2 GO

Jenrry Mejia (3.00 ERA) – 1 IP, 2 H, R, 3 SO

Chase Huchingson (0.00 ERA) – 1 IP, BB, SO, 1 GO

Batters

Daniel Muno – 1-4, BB, SO

Matt Reynolds – 2-4, 2B (23), 3 RBI (48), BB, SO

Alex Castellanos – 2-4, R, 2B (29), HR (14), RBI (49), HBP, SO

Brandon Allen – 2-4, R, BB

Anthony Recker – 1-5, R, HR (6), 2 RBI (15), 3 SO

Travis Taijeron – 1-2, R, 2B (10), RBI (41), BB, HBP

Recap

            The 51s wasted a good night from their offense in the Tacoma finale, as nobody could shut this Rainiers offense down until Chase Huchingson came on for the 8^th. Starter Rainy Lara allowed just a single over the first 2 innings, but was then tagged for 7 runs on 9 hits (including 2 doubles, a triple, and 2 homeruns), as the Rainiers started pulling away. Las Vegas was able to tie things up momentarily in the 4^th, when Matt Reynolds doubled home 2 runs on a play that ended with Daniel Muno colliding into the catcher at home, and then again in the 5^th on a pair of homeruns, but Lara and Vic Black gave the lead right back both times. After clicking early, the 51s offense suddenly started to struggle against the Tacoma bullpen when they fell behind for a 3^rd straight inning, and the last 10 Las Vegas batters would be retired in a row.

51s Bats Go Quiet in Fresno

Las Vegas 51s @ Fresno Grizzlies

June 20, 2015

Darin Gorski @ Dan Straily

Teams	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9		R	H	E
Las Vegas	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0		2	8	1
Fresno	2	0	0	2	2	0	0	1	X		7	9	1

W: Straily (6-5, 4.14 ERA); L: Gorski (4-6, 5.66 ERA)

MiLB.com Boxscore

The Highlights:

Pitchers

Darin Gorski (5.66 ERA) – 4.1 IP, 7 H, 6 R, 4 BB, 3 SO, HR, 92 Pitches (51 Strikes), 7 GO: 2 FO

Cody Satterwhite (5.24 ERA) – 1.1 IP, H, BB, SO, 2 GO: 1 FO, 2 IR – 1 S

Scott Rice (2.79 ERA) – 1 IP, H, BB, 2 SO, 1 GO

Jon Velasquez (5.74 ERA) – 1.1 IP, R (0 ER), SO, 2 IR – 0 S

Batters

Johnny Monell – 1-4, SO

Alex Castellanos – 1-4, R, HR (12), RBI (41)

Anthony Recker – 1-4, R, HR (2), RBI (3), 2 SO

Brandon Allen – 2-4

Jayce Boyd – 2-4, 2B (5)

Wilfredo Tovar – 1-4, SO, CS

Recap

            The 51s couldn’t overcome a wild Darin Gorski Saturday night, as the offense came up short of 10 hits, which has not been common this year. Gorski put the 51s in a 2-0 hole early, and then couldn’t keep the Grizzlies from adding on after both innings during which Las Vegas scored. The 51s bullpen did a solid job behind Gorski, as they were only charged with the unearned run, but the bats couldn’t really get anything going.

Comparing Individual Mets 2014 BABIP and xBABIP

            At this point in the season (offseason?), there aren’t many new topics to discuss until the games finally start. The biggest news story to break in Mets spring training camp so far is that Lucas Duda has been dealing with a slight left intercostals/oblique strain from overworking this offseason. While that doesn’t sound serious right now, it’ll be very important that Duda gets passed that issue before the season starts. While I was looking for other interesting Mets news on twitter today – and tweeting out some fun David Wright #FaceOfMLB votes – I ran across an interesting tweet from ESPN’s Mark Simon. The tweet highlighted the following information:

Table 1 – Results by batted ball type from 2014

Batted Ball Type	AVG	ISO	BABIP	tOPS+*
Ground Balls	.248	.021	.248	49
Fly Balls	.153	.285	.079	61
Line Drives	.659	.338	.637	366
Bunts	.404	.000	.404	133

*tOPS+ is the OPS for the split relative to a player’s total OPS

            While this information isn’t particularly new, it got me thinking about how the current Mets fared in terms of BABIP in 2014. BABIP isn’t particularly a new concept, and if you like advanced stats even just a little, you probably have a rough idea of either how most Mets fared in terms of 2014 BABIP, or at least which players outperformed/underperformed league average BABIP expectations. Even though league average BABIP has been pretty steady over the past 10 years, individual players BABIP can vary quite a lot from season to season, and so analysts have come up with various formulas for an expected BABIP formula (xBABIP). After some fairly simple xBABIP equations initially, these xBABIP calculations have evolved to take into account more factors than are sometimes even available to the casual fan. For example, Jeff Zimmerman at Rotographs introduced one that uses Inside Edge data and player speeds. I collected the relevant xBABIP information for the 2015 Mets and compiled them into Table 2.

Table 2 – Comparing Mets 2014 BABIP and xBABIP

Name	PA	xBABIP2014*	BABIP2014	dBABIP**
Curtis Granderson	654	.297	.265	-0.032
Daniel Murphy	642	.310	.322	0.012
Lucas Duda	596	.314	.283	-0.031
David Wright	586	.290	.325	0.035
Juan Lagares	452	.297	.341	0.044
Travis d'Arnaud	421	.289	.259	-0.030
Ruben Tejada	419	.267	.283	0.016
Wilmer Flores	274	.285	.265	-0.020
Eric Campbell	211	.283	.348	0.065
Michael Cuddyer	205	.320	.351	0.031
Anthony Recker	189	.284	.267	-0.017
Matt den Dekker	174	.292	.322	0.030
John Mayberry	168	.248	.229	-0.019
Kirk Nieuwenhuis	130	.356	.361	0.005
Dilson Herrera	66	.281	.256	-0.025

*xBABIP values from this Fangraphs piece

** dBABIP = BABIP - xBABIP