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| Which GM is giving the Mets the bigger punch in 2015? |
Comparing the expected impact of Omar-era players with those brought in
during the Sandy-era.
A
common meme on #MetsTwitter is to describe either a positive or negative Mets
development and add either #SandysMess or #OmarsMess to the end of the tweet,
as if everything that happens to this club is the fault of one of those two
GM’s. It seems like the joke should have died down by now, as this will be
Sandy Alderson’s 5th season as the Mets GM, but the roster still has
a big imprint of former GM Omar Minaya, which is kind of surprising. Although
Sandy makes the final decision about who stays on the 40-man roster, only 18 of
those players were brought in (or back) by Sandy Alderson – Wright was resigned
by Sandy, so he’s grouped into #SandysMess – with the rest tracing their roots
to the Omar regime. To get a better idea of which GM’s ‘mess’ will have the
bigger impact on the 2015 Mets, I’ve split the 40-man roster into two groups
below, and included Steamer and ZiPS projections.
#SandysMess
Sandy
came to a bad team, with bad contracts, and little to spend, so he’s left much
of the Major League roster a mess since he took over, while restocking the
minor league system to the point that it’s now one of the best in the league.
The Mets will start to see the fruits of Sandy’s labors in 2015, as the first
wave of prospects he drafted should start reaching the majors. Some of Sandy’s
other minor league acquisitions have already reached the majors – Alvarez,
Black, Montero, Wheeler, d’Arnaud, and Herrera – and show promise. And the Mets
have been molded over the years to fit Sandy’s philosophy as best as they can.
But the next few years should see some roster turnover that will finally make
#SandysMess the majority.
Pitchers
Name
|
Steamer ERA/FIP
|
ZiPS ERA/FIP
|
3.48/3.55
|
3.72/3.74
|
|
3.81/3.79
|
3.68/4.04
|
|
3.34/3.56
|
3.33/3.56
|
|
3.97/3.91
|
4.03/3.69
|
|
4.53/4.33
|
4.74/4.66
|
|
3.21/3.19
|
3.15/3.23
|
|
3.64/3.73
|
3.61/3.63
|
|
3.60/3.48
|
3.48/3.26
|
|
3.57/3.57
|
3.74/4.15
|
|
3.47/3.50
|
3.94/4.17
|
|
3.80/3.64
|
3.48/3.58
|
While
there is plenty of talent in this group, two of the most important pitchers on
the roster for the next several seasons were brought in during Omar’s last
draft – Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom. Syndergaard, Wheeler, and, to lesser
extent, Montero, all have the chance to be good starters too, but haven’t had ‘Ace’
seasons in the majors like Harvey’s 2013 and, to a lesser extent, deGrom’s
2014. It’s funny, but good, that only two of these pitchers make more than the
minimum in 2015, with no guaranteed money for 2016. With Wheeler out, this
group only has 2-3 pitchers that will make starts with the Mets in 2015 (Colon,
Montero, Thor), and they likely won’t total more than ~50 starts. The 5 best
lefty bullpen options are in this group, and it’s possible that 3 make the
opening day roster, but all of them will likely contribute in 2015. Also,
Black, Torres and Montero should all get plenty of chances out of the Mets pen
in 2015 (assuming Rafa isn’t starting)
Hitters
Name
|
Steamer fWAR/wRC+
|
ZiPS fWAR/wOBA
|
2.5/.325
|
1.9/.328
|
|
0.3/.279
|
0.4/.282
|
|
0.1/.288
|
1.7/.301
|
|
3.5/.340
|
3.7/.336
|
|
0.6/.320
|
0.9/.339
|
|
1.3/.316
|
2.0/.329
|
|
John Mayberry Jr.
|
-0.1/.293
|
0.0/.301
|
Total fWAR
|
8.2
|
10.6
|
ZiPS likes the Mets hitters more this
year that Steamer, but more than half of the difference in fWAR between the two
is because of Dilson Herrera’s projection – his ZiPS projections considers 600+
PA, while the Steamer considers 71. Cuddyer’s fWAR may not be that impressive
this season since he’ll likely be a negative defender, but his bat should still
play better than Steamer projects. There are 4 regular starters, the most likely backup catcher (Monell
would be in Sandy’s group anyway), the main right-handed hitter off the bench,
and a top prospect who might force his way onto the roster. Note that nearly $45 million dollars of the Mets salary will go to a trio from this group in 2015, and the Mets will be relying on Wright, Cuddyer and Granderson to provide the power that has been missing in Queens the past few years.
#OmarsMess
The
theme among players in Omar’s ‘mess’ is ‘players that outperformed
expectations,’ as a lot of these guys were never highly touted in the minors.
There are still a few young guys trickling up that began their Mets career
under Omar, but most of these players are pretty well known quantities. Omar’s
mark on this franchise was mostly ugly, but 5 years later, some of his guys
will be key players for the Mets in 2015, so not everything he touched turned
to LOLMets.
Pitchers
Name
|
Steamer ERA/FIP
|
ZiPS ERA/FIP
|
3.76/3.61
|
3.30/3.20
|
|
3.81/3.76
|
3.64/3.75
|
|
3.58/3.43
|
3.17/3.58
|
|
4.28/4.24
|
4.18/4.24
|
|
3.87/3.87
|
3.92/3.85
|
|
3.02/2.96
|
3.12/3.21
|
|
3.81/3.82
|
3.56/3.48
|
|
3.43/3.29
|
3.68/3.66
|
|
4.82/4.67
|
3.22/3.33
|
|
4.05/3.96
|
3.77/3.70
|
|
3.39/3.37
|
3.42/3.29
|
|
4.27/4.17
|
4.93/4.92
|
|
4.32/4.26
|
5.28/5.02
|
There
are some very impressive and important arms in this group, some of which could
be Mets for a long time. Dillon Gee appears likely to start the season as a
Mets starter, but he might be traded soon with Montero looking ready to start
in the majors, and Thor (and Matz) not far behind in AAA. Hopefully Parnell can
provide a boost to the pen when he returns, as he was one of the top relief
arms in 2012-13, so he can be a difference maker. Overall, this group has 4
guys likely to start the 2015 season in the Mets rotation, and two that may be
starting for the Mets in a future season (Matz and Ynoa). It also has 3 of the
top bullpen arms on the roster – Mejia, Familia, and Parnell – and 3 that might
prove useful in the pen the next few seasons – Goeddel, Morris and Robles.
Hitters
Name
|
Steamer fWAR/wOBA
|
ZiPS fWAR/wOBA
|
0.0/.293
|
0.6/.310
|
|
1.5/.332
|
3.2/.363
|
|
1.6/.300
|
2.1/.317
|
|
1.4/.314
|
2.1/.320
|
|
0.5/.283
|
1.4..286
|
|
0.0/.250
|
1.2/.282
|
|
2.4/.284
|
3.0/.320
|
|
0.1/.290
|
1.0/.305
|
|
0.0/.284
|
0.9/.339
|
|
Total fWAR
|
7.5
|
15.5
|
Again,
the differences in fWAR between Steamer and ZiPS can often be attributed to the
projected number of PA used, although ZiPS again likes Mets regulars more. Overall,
the 7 Sandy hitters outpaced the 9 Omar hitters in fWAR per Steamer. This group
has 4 regulars, 3 bench guys, 1 minor league bench guy (Tovar), and 1 guy who
might be gone soon (Puello). There is definitely some excitement in this group
– Lagares, Duda, Flores, Murphy (to a lesser extent) – but I could see 4-5 of
these guys gone within a year. The Mets don’t appear likely to resign Daniel
Murphy, so this is likely his final season in New York. Tejada had a bounceback
2014, but is getting expensive for a backup, and the Mets have potentially better
options at AAA. Also, Tovar is in his final season with options, and Kirk and
Puello are out of options.
To
summarize:
-
Omar’s mess will play a bigger role in the
starting rotation, likely making 100+ starts for the Mets in 2015. Also, I’m
sure Mets fans would love to see Harvey, deGrom, and Matz in the same rotation
for a long time.
-
Omar’s mess has arguably the 3 most important
righties in the bullpen, and a few guys who may help in time, but Sandy’s mess
has all the good lefties, 2-3 important righties, and a high number of
potentially interesting minor league depth options.
-
The projected lineup of regulars is 50/50
between the two, and the lineup is balanced enough that it’s hard to say which
group is more important. You can argue it either way: the Mets need Wright to
bounce back, Granderson and Cuddyer to provide some power, and d’Arnaud to give
them an offensive edge at catcher; or the Mets need Duda to repeat, Murph and
Lagares to be less reliant on BABIP success, and Wilmer to breakout and give
them an offensive edge at shortstop. I lean towards Sandy’s group being more
important and impactful on the 2015 Mets.
-
The projected bench currently features more Omar
players (3 to 2), but Muno has forced
his way into the bench discussion, and future callups will likely be
Sandy’s guys.
Surprisingly, players leftover
from #OmarsMess are still likely to provide the bigger impact on the 2015 Mets,
as they’ll make more starts in the rotation, and regularly fill up half of the
lineup card. Even though there are a lot of players leftover from the Omar
regime, Minaya & co. don’t necessarily deserve any credit for the success
of this roster. They should be applauded for finding a number of guys who far
outperformed career expectations, both from the draft and the international
free agency market, but there is no way this roster is anything like this with
his regime still in the Mets front office. Sandy & co. still make the final
roster decisions, and their patience has allowed several of these guys reach
their full potential – for example, they gave deGrom, Duda, Lagares and Flores
chances that other teams might not have. #SandysRealMess is on the way though,
as the Mets have several of their top prospects starting the year in AAA, and
interesting prospects on both sides of the ball at every level below that. That’s
a mess I can look forward to.
Astronomers discover clusters of galaxies forming #astronomy #space #science @ubcnews http://t.co/7NTywETG4p pic.twitter.com/irKR3Hub0w
— CanadianSpaceAgency (@csa_asc) March 31, 2015
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