Mets Minors Transactions, March 4-10

26 days until minor league opening day!

Keeping track of recent minor transactions within the Mets system

Last week

Cuts: Rafael Montero, Dario Alvarez, Akeel Morris, Chasen Bradford, and Paul Sewald

The first wave of Spring Training cuts came before this went out, with few surprises in the group. I expect all in AAA to start the year, where they will be competing for the role of “first pen arm called up when injury strikes.”

Montero may seem surprising, but if he was sitting 88-90 MPH the other day, he’s not ready to help the Mets, and may have further problems. Personally, I’ve been waiting for Montero to show up again since 2013. He wasn’t as sharp in 2014, and then he barely pitched last year, so I had low expectations coming into Spring Training. I think it’s smart to get him out of the spotlight of the bullpen competition early (there’s not much other competition for reporters to discuss right now), so he can just focus on getting innings on a regular basis and finding his way to success again.

2015 Split Review: Wuilmer Becerra

Eudor Garcia (28) and Wuilmer Becerra (31) stood out when hanging around the Savannah cages last year

            When dealing with lower level prospects, it’s really best not to focus too much on stats, which is advice I’m obviously not following here. Wuilmer Becerra is going to grow, both physically and as a hitter, so, for example, how many infield hits he had in 2015 won’t matter in a year. But I’m not using this series to make any predictive claims from stats, and I’m only comfortable talking about Mets prospects I have at least seen on MiLB.tv anyway, so any descriptive comments I make in this series are what I think from having watched and read about these guys. My goal with the splits is to find some trends to follow this year, trends that support or dispute some common perceptions about the prospect, and/or trends to suggest a player was lucky or unlucky in some batted ball designation.

2015 with Savannah (including postseason): 121 G, 500 PA, .291/.343/.423, 68 R, 28 2B, 3 3B, 9 HR, 64 RBI, 101 K: 34 BB (20.2 K%: 6.8 BB%), 17.8% Swinging Strikeout rate, .355 BABIP, .132 ISO, 118 wRC+, 53.8 GB%: 21.2 FB%: 19.5 LD%: 5.4 PU%

2015 in the VWL: 107 PA, .392/.406/.510, 20 R, 3 2B, 3 HR, 15 RBI, 14 K: 0 BB (13.1 K%: 0 BB%), .430 BABIP, .118 ISO, 153 wRC+, 50 GB%: 19.3 FB%: 21.6 LD%: 9.1 PU%

            Mets OF prospect Wuilmer Becerra is already well known to a good portion of Mets fans as the ‘non-elite’ throw-in from the R.A. Dickey trade, but 2016 should be the year he becomes known across baseball as a stud prospect for the team. Among Mets position prospects, Becerra offers a unique blend of above average speed (my present grade on him, but he's projected by many outlets to slow down to average as he develops) and above average power, and he plays solid defense in RF with a strong arm. He’s not without his flaws – for example, he has a tendency to chase breaking pitches out of the zone – but I felt like he was underrated across the boards in Mets rankings this offseason. In their 2016 Prospect Guidebook, Baseball America ranked him as the #10 Mets prospect, saying, “Scouts who like Becerra project him as a future big league regular who can do a bit of everything, but unless his power develops further, he might lack a carrying tool.” I link to 18 of his hits at the bottom of this post, including 3 homeruns and a 400+ foot triple, so you can see for yourself the impressive power he’s capable of. From what I’ve seen, he’ll have enough power, the question is whether he’ll make enough contact and/or learn to lay off breaking stuff out of the zone. Last year I saw Becerra live in Rome during May, and on MiLB.tv in April, May, August, and September, so I got to see him a decent amount. Below I look back at some splits from his 2015 to look for some trends to watch as he advances through full-season ball, and then share the links to GIFs of him I posted last year. Unless he finishes the year in Binghamton, those are probably the only MiLB.tv GIFs I’ll have of him until 2017, but I do hope to end up at a few St. Lucie games this year, so hopefully I’ll get some live coverage of him anyway.

2015 Split Review: Dominic Smith

The 2015 FSL MVP has yet to show the homerun power expected from 1B, but he’s done everything else well at the plate

2015 with St. Lucie: 497 PA, .305/.354/.417, 58 R, 33 2B, 6 HR, 79 RBI, 75 K: 35 BB (15.1 K%: 7 BB%), 133 wRC+, .351 BABIP, .112 ISO, 47.3 GB%: 29.8 FB%: 20.7 LD%: 2.1 PU%

2015 in the AFL: 60 PA, .362/.483/.511, 8 R, 4 2B, HR, 6 RBI, 10 K: 12 BB (16.7 K%: 20 BB%), 177 wRC+, .432 BABIP, .149 ISO, 42.9 GB%: 17.1 FB%: 37.1 LD%: 2.9 PU%, 3.98 P/PA, 7.9 SwStr%, 18.6 Whiff/Swing

Dominic Smith's Strike Zone Profile from last year in the AFL (catcher's perspective)

            Dominic Smith is one of the more talked about prospects in the Mets system, so I hardly need to introduce him or the questions about his homerun power. To date, Smith has 1,221 PA at the minor leagues, with a mere 189 strikeouts (15.5 K%), a .290/.357/.387 slash, and only 2 plate appearances against a younger pitcher (per BB-Ref) - so he’s produced as one of the youngest players in the league at all 4 of his minor league stops. But he only has 10 HR during that time, and he’s limited defensively to a position that expects homerun output. Those who have seen him in batting practice have been privy to a very nice show, but he’s yet to turn that raw power into game power, and that’s where it counts. Despite winning the FSL MVP last year and leading the league with 33 doubles, he only managed 6 homeruns in nearly 500 PA, though it should be noted that there were only 28 players to hit 7+ homeruns in the FSL last year (max was 14), and most of those guys also spent the whole season there. Now 6 homeruns with St. Lucie may not be much, but if those Flonase commercials have taught me anything, it’s that six is greater than one, which was his 2014 total. The Baseball America 2016 Prospect Guidebook suggests Smith shows a lot of promise as a hitter even if he doesn’t develop a lot of homerun power, “…even scouts who are pessimistic about his ceiling concede that his loose hitting actions, hand-eye coordination and smooth lefthanded stroke will produce a high batting average.” They also said that, “he doesn’t strike out much, and he has one of the best two-strike approaches in the system,” which is always nice in a prospect. Unfortunately, I only got to see randomly posted home video quality GIFs of Smith at bat in 2015, so I was forced to turn to the radio for info on his daily PA’s, which means I don’t have any new visual observations to add to the discussion about Smith. But I did just create a new stat page with a number of advanced splits that you’re not going to find anywhere else, so let’s dig into a few of those and see if we can’t find some trends to look out for in 2016.

Matz Is Like... Half Man, Half Amazin'

The original Iron Matz image!

Verse 1 of the newest hit from DJ Iron Matz (Audio at the bottom)

Matz is Like

Surgery or exile, tendons inserted, a new forearm being born

Same time my mans career is over, the beginning and end

As far as pitching go, it’s only natural I explain

My repertoire, and, also, what defines my game

First I was a thrower only, but times have changed

Ask me now, I’m the pitcher, but hardcore, my arm feels no pain

I get time in the fame, but keep my mind on the game

Saw Thor promoted, and fans post lines of his K’s

Saw my close friends have success, am I next?

That depends, carry baseballs to practice my aim

On rooftops, tape cd covers to trees

Set a fake batter up with your weak picture then release

Throw curveballs to lost souls, in my crosshairs

To the corner outfielders that make the big dough

To the sluggers living large, swinging a light bat

Crushing weak pitchers, getting nice, enjoying your stat line

Is what you make it, SABR advice, too few take it

Head stuck up their ass in the old ways

Majors and minors, pitching legend, presence is felt

And of course M-A-T-Z are the letters that spell…

MATZ, MATZ

Matz is like life or death, I'm a rebel

My repertoire is deep, I never fail

Matz is like.. half man half amazin’

2015 Split Review: T.J. Rivera

The Bronx-born infielder would make for a great hometown story, but can he actually help the Mets?

            The Mets signed T.J. Rivera as an undrafted free agent following the 2011 draft, which means that all 30 teams passed up the 50 opportunities they could have had to draft him out of Troy University. In total, 1,530 players were drafted during the Rule 4 draft in June, 2011, a large majority of which are already out of affiliated ball or will never have as much minor league success as T.J. Rivera has had to date. He’s already 27, so he’s a little old for a prospect. If he were 2-3 years younger when he started his run in the system, he would’ve generated a bit more attention as he came up, but he was consistently 1-3 years older than the average competition (per BB-Ref), so younger guys were given shots at AA he could’ve justifiably been given based on his production with St. Lucie between 2012 and 2014. He’s not one of the faster players on the field, a defensive-whiz, or a masher; instead he has fringe-average speed, is a good defender at 2B/3B with some SS experience (based on his 2014 with the B-Mets, he would be a good emergency option at SS), and is more of a singles hitter who has excelled on groundballs. This gives him that ‘everyman’ quality that lets a fan dream about an alternate universe in which they worked their ass off (like T.J. absolutely has) to make the most of their physical abilities and be on the cusp of their childhood dream of playing a game for a living, outside in the summer time, for their hometown team, and then choosing the #31 before it gets retired… Sorry, started daydreaming there. My point was, he’s a great underdog story, and he’d be the type of hard-nose, blue-collar, hometown player that Mets fans love to embrace – so long as he stays reasonably productive. Unfortunately, being reasonably productive off the bench for the Mets is not something I have been totally convinced of watching him play the past season plus between AA and AAA – I could watch him everyday on MiLB.tv in 2015, but only in select away games while playing in the EL during the second half of the 2014 season. Below I take a look at trends in T.J.’s play at the upper minors that should help explain why I have my doubts, and then share GIF links of some of his better hits from 2015 at the bottom.

2015 with Binghamton
234 PA, .341/.380/.455, 37 R, 10 2B, 5 HR, 27 RBI, 22 K: 12 BB (9.4 K%: 5.1 BB%), .363 BABIP, .114 ISO, 144 wRC+, 45.6 GB%: 28.2 FB%: 20.4 LD%: 5.8 PU%, 7.4 SwStr%, 14.6 Whiff/Swing, 3.42 P/PA
2015 with Las Vegas
196 PA, .306/.345/.443, 26 R, 17 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 21 RBI, 25 K: 7 BB (12.8 K%: 3.6 BB%), .346 BABIP, .137 ISO, 111 wRC+, 50.6 GB%: 17.9 FB%: 24.4 LD%: 7.1 PU%, 8.4 SwStr%, 16.2 Whiff/Swing, 3.29 P/PA

2015 Split and Defense Review: Gavin Cecchini

This pair of Mets first round picks have already been teammates at several stops in the Mets system

The young shortstop will be moving up to AAA for his age-22 season

            Given the reports on Cecchini coming out of St. Lucie towards the end of 2014 (and that he hit .286/.391/.446 with 11 XBH and 21 BB: 14 K in his last 138 PA there), I felt confident enough that Cheech would have a good season in 2015 to rank him #7 on my pre-season list, and then he went and had a great season, at least at the plate. Given his age, the position he plays, and the way he produced last year (high contact rate and BABIP, average ISO), the KATOH system than Fangraphs writer Chris Mitchell has created initially had him as the 14^th best prospect of 2015. Chris has since updated the system to consider more than one season’s worth of data, and to give less credit to prospects just because they can play SS, which led to a drop in the rankings for Cecchini, but the fact his initially system loved his 2015 reflects just how nice of a year it was for Cecchini statistically at the plate. Unfortunately, while he did some good stuff in the field (see 20 good fielding plays here), he also committed 28 errors to lead the league (see most of them here), and some scout writers questioned whether he was a shortstop after their looks. Most scout writers only get a few looks at a prospect per year, if that, so I can understand why they would question whether he can stick there if they saw him at the wrong time. But as someone who watched him everyday (albeit, exclusively on MiLB.tv) in 2015, I don’t think a move to 2B is needed anytime soon. Depending on the stadium, the MiLB.tv angles can be limiting to some aspects of the game, but when they use behind the plate angles (like they generally did at the B-Mets home park in 2015), you can often see at least the feet of the second baseman and shortstop, which means you can watch the fielder from reaction time until he throws the ball and the camera pans away – look for it when you decide to review the pages good plays and errors linked above. Below I defend my position on his defense, explore his splits from 2015 to look for trends to follow in 2016, and then share a few XBH GIF's at the bottom.

2015 Split Review: Amed Rosario

           

            A quick side note: I was going to start creating a Mets prospect list two months ago, but when I started getting the stats together for the first prospect on my list I became frustrated. As I went into here, I knew there was more out there statistically than could easily be found anywhere online, and so I got all of the information I could from the MLB Gameday/XML site to create the Minor/Winter League Stat pages on my blog (see tabs at top of page). However, since I’ve been spending my blog time on that, and we’re now into Spring Training, I’d rather just explore the stat worksheets with individual player posts instead of creating a ranking that will become meaningless in 6 weeks. Remember that with all of these splits, the sample sizes are small and they should not be considered predictive, especially since most of these prospects will be playing in a completely new league this year. My goal here is to better understand what Mets prospects did well (or not) in 2015, with the hopes of identifying some trends to look out for in 2016.

2015 with St. Lucie: 103 G, 417 PA, .257/.307/.335, 41 R, 20 2B, 5 3B, 25 RBI, 12/16 SB, 17.5 K%: 5.5 BB%, 99 wRC+, 53 GB%/26 FB%/15 LD%/6 PU%

Although he struggled with consistency at the plate throughout 2015, Rosario finished the season as a league average hitter for St. Lucie, which is impressive considering he was the youngest batter to get regular playing time in the Florida State League last year (aka, minimum 137 AB, since that is the cutoff for the BB-Ref leader board). While his performance at the plate was solid given the context, it was his performance in the field that was turning heads all summer – it seemed like radio announcer Adam MacDonald was making “Diving stop by Rosario!” calls every week. Describing ‘his finest attributes’ in their 2016 Prospect Guidebook, Baseball America wrote that he is, “…a plus athlete with plus speed, he brings terrific body controls, soft hands and plus arm strength to the shortstop position.” While there has long been speculation that he will fill out (I’ve never seen so much discussion about a prospects ‘broad-shouldered build’) and provide more pop, he didn’t do it as a teenager, so… Seriously, he’s advanced this far in the system and yet his first affiliated game as a 20+-year old will come with the B-Mets in AA on their opening day. So, there’s plenty of time for some power to develop still, and as a swift fielding shortstop, he doesn’t need to show much power to keep his top-notch prospect status. Plus, his .079 ISO is not as bad as it seems when you consider the league average ISO was .089 for the FSL in 2015, and that the league was, on average, 3.5 years older than Rosario. Below I take a look at some splits to see what kind of hitter he was with St. Lucie last year, and then there are links to the few GIF’s I have of him at the bottom of this page.

Mets Minors Transactions, 2/1-3/3

The winter has never seemed longer!

Keeping track of recent minor transactions within the Mets system

Last Time

            With Spring Training underway, I expect to be making this a weekly feature again.

New York Mets

2/1 – RH RP Carlos Torres was outrighted to Las Vegas, but chose to pursue free agency. The Mets signed C Raywilly Gomez to a minor league contract with a Spring Training invite.

2/2 – Darrell Ceciliani was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays for a player to be named later and cash considerations.

2/8 – OF Roger Bernadina was signed to a minor league contract with a Spring Training invite.

2/15 – Paul Sewald was officially invited to major league camp in Spring Training.

2/16 – 2B Kevin Taylor was signed to a minor league contract.

2/17 – Dominic Smith, Gavin Cecchini, Travis Taijeron, T.J. Rivera, Chasen Bradford, and Zach Thornton were officially invited to major league campe in Spring Training.

2/18 – Kevin Plawecki changed his number to 26.

Las Vegas 51s

Changing The State Of Publicly Available Minor League Stats

There’s not much information about a major league game that can’t be found online from one of a few sites these days, but minor league data is stuck back in the dark ages, so I’ve scraped everything MiLB tracks from every minor league game over the past 5 years to create the most complete minor league stat page to date

The Problem

Thanks to PITCHF/x, Statcast, MLBAM, and other stat tracking companies, baseball fans can learn every piece of information about a major league baseball game, from how fast pitches were thrown (or hit), to an outfielder’s reaction time and route efficiency on a fly ball to the gap. Sites like Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference offer park and league adjusted stats to compare and analyze major league players, and further break down performances by every split you can imagine. However, when it comes to the minor league side of the game, unless you go to the game with your own calibrated radar gun, you’re not even guaranteed to get reliable pitch velocities, and no tracked pitch information (type/speed/location) is available for free online (possibly at all?). Also, Baseball-Reference has a few splits, but they only track the basic stats for those splits, and you can’t compare players by split. Similarly, while Fangraphs posts FIP for minor league pitchers and a league-adjusted wRC+ for minor league batters, they don’t share the constants they use, or offer any minor league splits. Statcorner and Minor League Central offer a little more batted ball information (although Minor League Central hasn’t updated since 6/18/2015), and you can get spray charts from MLBFarm, but no site brings it all together… until now. Introducing the Astromets Mind Minor League Stat Page, which is my attempt at bringing the best from the aforementioned stat sites into two Tableau worksheets – one for batters, one for pitchers.

My Solution

Mets Minors Transactions – January 5-31, 2016

Loving that new Fireflies logo!

Keeping track of recent minor transactions within the Mets system

Last time

New York Mets

1/14 – Signed RHP Luis Chirinos to a minor league contract.

1/15 – Signed C Nevin Ashley to a minor league contract.

1/21 – Signed 3B Niuman Romero to a minor league contract.

1/22 – DFA’d Carlos Torres to make room for the signing of LH RP Antonio Bastardo (2 years/$12 million). INF Danny Muno was invited to the major league side of spring training.

1/26 – REONIS UPSEDES!!!!! The Mets brought Yoenis Cespedes back on an unexpected deal – 3-years/$75 million with the 1-year opt-out – stealing him away from the Nationals at the same time.

1/27 – OF Darrell Ceciliani was DFA’d.

1/29 – The Mets announced that top OF prospect Brandon Nimmo has a torn tendon in his left foot

Las Vegas 51s