It’s still early, and not everything is bad for the Mets new catcher,
but he has only hit .195/.285/.277 through his first 250 plate appearances in
the majors – what’s going on?
Travis ∂’Arnaud is in the tough position of being a top prospect struggling to hit in
the majors, while the Mets next top prospect at his position has been
absolutely tearing the cover off the ball in AA. Some Mets fans are already
commenting that Kevin Plawecki will be replacing T∂A as Mets catcher by next
year. While that is certainly not out of the realm of possibilities, it’s a
little too early to say that ∂’Arnaud won’t be able to adjust in the majors and
start living up to the potential he showed while winning MVP in the same league
Plawecki is currently dominating – he did that at a younger age too. Plawecki
comparisons aside, I was curious to see if I could get a better understanding
of what’s been causing the biggest problems for T∂A.
First,
let’s take a look at what T∂A has done in the majors (from above, his ISO is
.082):
Table 1 – Travis ∂’Arnaud’s career rates through 250 PA
K%
|
BB%
|
BABIP
|
2B
|
HR
|
wRC+
|
18.0
|
11.2
|
.227
|
6
|
4
|
59
|
A
simple response would be to say that he has been “BABIP’d,” as his K% and BB%
are both better than average major league rates, he just hasn’t had the hits
fall in for him at a normal rate. A quick look at his batted ball rates show
that he is hitting line drives (best type of contact for a high BABIP) at below
the league average rate:
Table 2 – Comparing T∂A’s batted ball rates to the major
league averages.
LD%
|
GB%
|
FB%
|
IFFB%
|
|
Average
|
20.2
|
45.5
|
34.3
|
9.5
|
T∂A
|
17.0
|
44.9
|
38.1
|
9.0
|
Otherwise,
there is nothing about that batted ball profile that screams “low BABIP
hitter.” BrooksBaseball.net keeps track of how a batter is doing on individual
pitches types, so we can use that information to take a closer look at his
struggles. Note, BrooksBaseball.net has data for 218 AB while Fangraphs.com
says T∂A has 220 AB in the major leagues.
Table 3 – Results and outcomes by pitch category
Pitch Category
|
AB
|
K
|
BABIP
|
ISO
|
LD%
|
GB%
|
FB%
|
Hard
|
150
|
27
|
.258
|
.100
|
19.0
|
46.3
|
34.7
|
Breaking
|
49
|
14
|
.088
|
.061
|
17.6
|
50.0
|
32.4
|
Offspeed
|
19
|
4
|
.333
|
.000
|
25.0
|
50.0
|
25.0
|
Wow,
he has had no success hitting the breaking ball early on in his career, and
22.5% of his at-bats have ended against breaking balls. Looking a little closer
at his 2014 numbers, he actually has a very strong eye against breaking balls,
as he swings at 82% of breaking balls within the zone and only 14% outside of
the strike zone, and his whiff/swing rate is about average at 31%. He has fared
a little better against the hard stuff, but that’s still just nine extra base
hits (six doubles and three home runs) in 150 at bats, or 1 XBH every 16.7 AB.
He has seen such a low percentage of off-speed pitches that it’s hardly worth
mentioning at this point. To get a better idea of how he’s doing against each
of these pitch categories, check out his spray charts below.
